Future changes in extreme precipitation over the San Francisco Bay Area: Dependence on atmospheric river and extratropical cyclone events
Extreme precipitation poses a major challenge for local governments, including the City and County of San Francisco, California, as flooding can damage and destroy infrastructure and property. As the climate continues to warm, reliable future precipitation projections are needed to provide the best...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2022-06-01
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| Series: | Weather and Climate Extremes |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094722000275 |
| _version_ | 1818213987008905216 |
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| author | Christina M. Patricola Michael F. Wehner Emily Bercos-Hickey Flor Vanessa Maciel Christine May Michael Mak Olivia Yip Anna M. Roche Susan Leal |
| author_facet | Christina M. Patricola Michael F. Wehner Emily Bercos-Hickey Flor Vanessa Maciel Christine May Michael Mak Olivia Yip Anna M. Roche Susan Leal |
| author_sort | Christina M. Patricola |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Extreme precipitation poses a major challenge for local governments, including the City and County of San Francisco, California, as flooding can damage and destroy infrastructure and property. As the climate continues to warm, reliable future precipitation projections are needed to provide the best possible information to decision makers. However, future changes in the magnitude of extreme precipitation are uncertain, as current state-of-the-art global climate models are typically run at relatively coarse horizontal resolutions that require the use of convective parameterization and have difficulty simulating observed extreme rainfall rates. Here, we performed ensembles of convection-permitting regional climate model simulations to investigate how five historically impactful extreme precipitation events over the San Francisco Bay Area could change if similar events occurred in future climates. We found that changes in storm-total precipitation depend strongly on storm type. Precipitation associated with an atmospheric river (AR) accompanied by an extratropical cyclone (ETC) is projected to increase at a rate exceeding (by up to 1.5 times) the theoretical Clausius Clapeyron scaling of 6–7% per °C warming. On the other hand, future precipitation changes are weak or negative for events characterized by an AR only, despite increases in precipitable water and integrated vapor transport that are similar to those of the co-occurring AR and ETC events. The differences in the sign of future precipitation change between AR-only events and co-occurring AR and ETC events is instead linked with changes in mid-tropospheric vertical velocity. Given that the majority of observed ARs are associated with an ETC, this research has important implications for future precipitation impacts over the Bay Area, as it indicates that storm-total precipitation associated with the most common type of storm event may increase by up to 26–37% in 2100 relative to historical. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-12T06:13:01Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-805cbf5acbfa461f97144a35ceaf23ee |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2212-0947 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-12T06:13:01Z |
| publishDate | 2022-06-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Weather and Climate Extremes |
| spelling | doaj.art-805cbf5acbfa461f97144a35ceaf23ee2022-12-22T00:35:07ZengElsevierWeather and Climate Extremes2212-09472022-06-0136100440Future changes in extreme precipitation over the San Francisco Bay Area: Dependence on atmospheric river and extratropical cyclone eventsChristina M. Patricola0Michael F. Wehner1Emily Bercos-Hickey2Flor Vanessa Maciel3Christine May4Michael Mak5Olivia Yip6Anna M. Roche7Susan Leal8Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, USA; Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA; Corresponding author. Iowa State University, 3017 Agronomy Hall, 716 Farm House Ln, Ames, IA, 50011, USA.Computational Research Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USAClimate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USASan Jose State University, Department of Meteorology and Climate Science, San Jose, CA, USA; Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USAPathways Climate Institute, San Francisco, CA, USAPathways Climate Institute, San Francisco, CA, USADepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, San Jose State University, San Jose, CA, USA; Pathways Climate Institute, San Francisco, CA, USASan Francisco Public Utilities Commission, San Francisco, CA, USAUrban Water Works, San Francisco, CA, USAExtreme precipitation poses a major challenge for local governments, including the City and County of San Francisco, California, as flooding can damage and destroy infrastructure and property. As the climate continues to warm, reliable future precipitation projections are needed to provide the best possible information to decision makers. However, future changes in the magnitude of extreme precipitation are uncertain, as current state-of-the-art global climate models are typically run at relatively coarse horizontal resolutions that require the use of convective parameterization and have difficulty simulating observed extreme rainfall rates. Here, we performed ensembles of convection-permitting regional climate model simulations to investigate how five historically impactful extreme precipitation events over the San Francisco Bay Area could change if similar events occurred in future climates. We found that changes in storm-total precipitation depend strongly on storm type. Precipitation associated with an atmospheric river (AR) accompanied by an extratropical cyclone (ETC) is projected to increase at a rate exceeding (by up to 1.5 times) the theoretical Clausius Clapeyron scaling of 6–7% per °C warming. On the other hand, future precipitation changes are weak or negative for events characterized by an AR only, despite increases in precipitable water and integrated vapor transport that are similar to those of the co-occurring AR and ETC events. The differences in the sign of future precipitation change between AR-only events and co-occurring AR and ETC events is instead linked with changes in mid-tropospheric vertical velocity. Given that the majority of observed ARs are associated with an ETC, this research has important implications for future precipitation impacts over the Bay Area, as it indicates that storm-total precipitation associated with the most common type of storm event may increase by up to 26–37% in 2100 relative to historical.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094722000275Extreme precipitationClimate changePrecipitation scalingClausius-ClapeyronAtmospheric riversExtratropical cyclones |
| spellingShingle | Christina M. Patricola Michael F. Wehner Emily Bercos-Hickey Flor Vanessa Maciel Christine May Michael Mak Olivia Yip Anna M. Roche Susan Leal Future changes in extreme precipitation over the San Francisco Bay Area: Dependence on atmospheric river and extratropical cyclone events Weather and Climate Extremes Extreme precipitation Climate change Precipitation scaling Clausius-Clapeyron Atmospheric rivers Extratropical cyclones |
| title | Future changes in extreme precipitation over the San Francisco Bay Area: Dependence on atmospheric river and extratropical cyclone events |
| title_full | Future changes in extreme precipitation over the San Francisco Bay Area: Dependence on atmospheric river and extratropical cyclone events |
| title_fullStr | Future changes in extreme precipitation over the San Francisco Bay Area: Dependence on atmospheric river and extratropical cyclone events |
| title_full_unstemmed | Future changes in extreme precipitation over the San Francisco Bay Area: Dependence on atmospheric river and extratropical cyclone events |
| title_short | Future changes in extreme precipitation over the San Francisco Bay Area: Dependence on atmospheric river and extratropical cyclone events |
| title_sort | future changes in extreme precipitation over the san francisco bay area dependence on atmospheric river and extratropical cyclone events |
| topic | Extreme precipitation Climate change Precipitation scaling Clausius-Clapeyron Atmospheric rivers Extratropical cyclones |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094722000275 |
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