Causalidad y acoplamiento cíclico entre variables macroeconómicas en la conformación de crisis financieras
Causalidad y acoplamiento cíclico entre variables macroeconómicas en la conformación de crisis financieras Objective: This work analyzes the cyclical synchronization among macroeconomic time series, whose phase couplings incidentally established the mechanisms of propagation and causality in cyclic...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas
2022-11-01
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| Series: | Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.remef.org.mx/index.php/remef/article/view/669 |
| _version_ | 1797300508863496192 |
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| author | Josué Alan Cantú Esquivel Humberto Rios Bolivar Ana Lorena Jiménez Preciado |
| author_facet | Josué Alan Cantú Esquivel Humberto Rios Bolivar Ana Lorena Jiménez Preciado |
| author_sort | Josué Alan Cantú Esquivel |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Causalidad y acoplamiento cíclico entre variables macroeconómicas en la conformación de crisis financieras
Objective: This work analyzes the cyclical synchronization among macroeconomic time series, whose phase couplings incidentally established the mechanisms of propagation and causality in cyclical oscillations of the variables and implicitly fostered periods of the economic and financial crisis in the American economy. Method: we use cyclical phase synchronization in time series in addition to Granger causality tests of VAR (Vector Auto-Regressive). Results: this research explains the mechanisms by which monetary policy decisions are reflected in the movements of macroeconomic variables and how its effects transmit inefficiencies in the performance and behavior of aggregate financial and macroeconomic variables, originating the “boom and bust” process in the US economy. Recommendations: strengthen the analysis through causal nested relationships in time series to capture the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy. Limitations and implications: the dynamic adjustment is not pertinent for lineal systems. Main contribution: there is a strong relationship between cyclical subsystems of variables and the dynamics of transmission and cyclical causality is time variant, highlighting the beginning of economic-financial cycles. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-07T23:08:10Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-8066a458aa8e43e08667e2cafa84ceb1 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2448-6795 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-07T23:08:10Z |
| publishDate | 2022-11-01 |
| publisher | Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF |
| spelling | doaj.art-8066a458aa8e43e08667e2cafa84ceb12024-02-21T18:38:18ZengInstituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de FinanzasRevista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF2448-67952022-11-01181e669e66910.21919/remef.v18i1.669510Causalidad y acoplamiento cíclico entre variables macroeconómicas en la conformación de crisis financierasJosué Alan Cantú Esquivel0Humberto Rios Bolivar1Ana Lorena Jiménez Preciado2Instituto Politécnico NacionalInstituto Politécnico NacionalInstituto Politécnico NacionalCausalidad y acoplamiento cíclico entre variables macroeconómicas en la conformación de crisis financieras Objective: This work analyzes the cyclical synchronization among macroeconomic time series, whose phase couplings incidentally established the mechanisms of propagation and causality in cyclical oscillations of the variables and implicitly fostered periods of the economic and financial crisis in the American economy. Method: we use cyclical phase synchronization in time series in addition to Granger causality tests of VAR (Vector Auto-Regressive). Results: this research explains the mechanisms by which monetary policy decisions are reflected in the movements of macroeconomic variables and how its effects transmit inefficiencies in the performance and behavior of aggregate financial and macroeconomic variables, originating the “boom and bust” process in the US economy. Recommendations: strengthen the analysis through causal nested relationships in time series to capture the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy. Limitations and implications: the dynamic adjustment is not pertinent for lineal systems. Main contribution: there is a strong relationship between cyclical subsystems of variables and the dynamics of transmission and cyclical causality is time variant, highlighting the beginning of economic-financial cycles.https://www.remef.org.mx/index.php/remef/article/view/669ciclo económico, crisis económica, crisis financiera, causalidad entre variables, sincronización de fase. |
| spellingShingle | Josué Alan Cantú Esquivel Humberto Rios Bolivar Ana Lorena Jiménez Preciado Causalidad y acoplamiento cíclico entre variables macroeconómicas en la conformación de crisis financieras Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF ciclo económico, crisis económica, crisis financiera, causalidad entre variables, sincronización de fase. |
| title | Causalidad y acoplamiento cíclico entre variables macroeconómicas en la conformación de crisis financieras |
| title_full | Causalidad y acoplamiento cíclico entre variables macroeconómicas en la conformación de crisis financieras |
| title_fullStr | Causalidad y acoplamiento cíclico entre variables macroeconómicas en la conformación de crisis financieras |
| title_full_unstemmed | Causalidad y acoplamiento cíclico entre variables macroeconómicas en la conformación de crisis financieras |
| title_short | Causalidad y acoplamiento cíclico entre variables macroeconómicas en la conformación de crisis financieras |
| title_sort | causalidad y acoplamiento ciclico entre variables macroeconomicas en la conformacion de crisis financieras |
| topic | ciclo económico, crisis económica, crisis financiera, causalidad entre variables, sincronización de fase. |
| url | https://www.remef.org.mx/index.php/remef/article/view/669 |
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