Amplified potential for vegetation stress under climate-change-induced intensifying compound extreme events in the Greater Mediterranean Region
<p>The Mediterranean Basin is one of the regions most affected by climate change, which poses significant challenges to agricultural efficiency and food security. While rising temperatures and decreasing precipitation levels already impose great risks, the effects of compound extreme events (C...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2024-04-01
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| Series: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/24/1099/2024/nhess-24-1099-2024.pdf |
| _version_ | 1827295438716272640 |
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| author | P. Olschewski M. D. B. Dieng H. Moutahir H. Moutahir B. Böker E. Haas H. Kunstmann H. Kunstmann P. Laux P. Laux |
| author_facet | P. Olschewski M. D. B. Dieng H. Moutahir H. Moutahir B. Böker E. Haas H. Kunstmann H. Kunstmann P. Laux P. Laux |
| author_sort | P. Olschewski |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>The Mediterranean Basin is one of the regions most affected by climate change, which poses significant challenges to agricultural efficiency and food security. While rising temperatures and decreasing precipitation levels already impose great risks, the effects of compound extreme events (CEEs) can be significantly more severe and amplify the risk. It is therefore of high importance to assess these risks under climate change on a regional level to implement efficient adaption strategies. This study focuses on false-spring events (FSEs), which impose a high risk of crop losses during the beginning of the vegetation growing period, as well as heat–drought compound events (HDCEs) in summer, for a high-impact future scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5). The results for 2070–2099 are compared to 1970–1999. In addition, deviations of the near-surface atmospheric state under FSEs and HDCEs are investigated to improve the predictability of these events. We apply a multivariate, trend-conserving bias correction method (MBCn) accounting for temporal coherency between the inspected variables derived from the European branch of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX). This method proves to be a suitable choice for the assessment of percentile-threshold-based CEEs. The results show a potential increase in frequency of FSEs for large portions of the study domain, especially impacting later stages of the warming period, caused by disproportionate changes in the behavior of warm phases and frost events. Frost events causing FSEs predominantly occur under high-pressure conditions and northerly to easterly wind flow. HDCEs are projected to significantly increase in frequency, intensity, and duration, mostly driven by dry, continental air masses. This intensification is several times higher than that of the univariate components. This study improves our understanding of the unfolding of climate change in the Mediterranean and shows the need for further, locally refined investigations and adaptation strategies.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T14:19:27Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-8073c525e95d4a51aef624f8dba728b9 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1561-8633 1684-9981 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T14:19:27Z |
| publishDate | 2024-04-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-8073c525e95d4a51aef624f8dba728b92024-04-03T07:22:11ZengCopernicus PublicationsNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences1561-86331684-99812024-04-01241099113410.5194/nhess-24-1099-2024Amplified potential for vegetation stress under climate-change-induced intensifying compound extreme events in the Greater Mediterranean RegionP. Olschewski0M. D. B. Dieng1H. Moutahir2H. Moutahir3B. Böker4E. Haas5H. Kunstmann6H. Kunstmann7P. Laux8P. Laux9Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Campus Alpin, Kreuzeckbahnstraße 19, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, GermanyInstitute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Campus Alpin, Kreuzeckbahnstraße 19, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, GermanyInstitute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Campus Alpin, Kreuzeckbahnstraße 19, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, GermanyDepartment of Ecology, University of Alicante, 03690 Sant Vicent del Raspeig, Alicante, SpainInstitute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Campus Alpin, Kreuzeckbahnstraße 19, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, GermanyInstitute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Campus Alpin, Kreuzeckbahnstraße 19, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, GermanyInstitute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Campus Alpin, Kreuzeckbahnstraße 19, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, GermanyInstitute of Geography, University of Augsburg, Alter Postweg 118, 86159 Augsburg, GermanyInstitute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Campus Alpin, Kreuzeckbahnstraße 19, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, GermanyInstitute of Geography, University of Augsburg, Alter Postweg 118, 86159 Augsburg, Germany<p>The Mediterranean Basin is one of the regions most affected by climate change, which poses significant challenges to agricultural efficiency and food security. While rising temperatures and decreasing precipitation levels already impose great risks, the effects of compound extreme events (CEEs) can be significantly more severe and amplify the risk. It is therefore of high importance to assess these risks under climate change on a regional level to implement efficient adaption strategies. This study focuses on false-spring events (FSEs), which impose a high risk of crop losses during the beginning of the vegetation growing period, as well as heat–drought compound events (HDCEs) in summer, for a high-impact future scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5). The results for 2070–2099 are compared to 1970–1999. In addition, deviations of the near-surface atmospheric state under FSEs and HDCEs are investigated to improve the predictability of these events. We apply a multivariate, trend-conserving bias correction method (MBCn) accounting for temporal coherency between the inspected variables derived from the European branch of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX). This method proves to be a suitable choice for the assessment of percentile-threshold-based CEEs. The results show a potential increase in frequency of FSEs for large portions of the study domain, especially impacting later stages of the warming period, caused by disproportionate changes in the behavior of warm phases and frost events. Frost events causing FSEs predominantly occur under high-pressure conditions and northerly to easterly wind flow. HDCEs are projected to significantly increase in frequency, intensity, and duration, mostly driven by dry, continental air masses. This intensification is several times higher than that of the univariate components. This study improves our understanding of the unfolding of climate change in the Mediterranean and shows the need for further, locally refined investigations and adaptation strategies.</p>https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/24/1099/2024/nhess-24-1099-2024.pdf |
| spellingShingle | P. Olschewski M. D. B. Dieng H. Moutahir H. Moutahir B. Böker E. Haas H. Kunstmann H. Kunstmann P. Laux P. Laux Amplified potential for vegetation stress under climate-change-induced intensifying compound extreme events in the Greater Mediterranean Region Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| title | Amplified potential for vegetation stress under climate-change-induced intensifying compound extreme events in the Greater Mediterranean Region |
| title_full | Amplified potential for vegetation stress under climate-change-induced intensifying compound extreme events in the Greater Mediterranean Region |
| title_fullStr | Amplified potential for vegetation stress under climate-change-induced intensifying compound extreme events in the Greater Mediterranean Region |
| title_full_unstemmed | Amplified potential for vegetation stress under climate-change-induced intensifying compound extreme events in the Greater Mediterranean Region |
| title_short | Amplified potential for vegetation stress under climate-change-induced intensifying compound extreme events in the Greater Mediterranean Region |
| title_sort | amplified potential for vegetation stress under climate change induced intensifying compound extreme events in the greater mediterranean region |
| url | https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/24/1099/2024/nhess-24-1099-2024.pdf |
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