The 10‐year follow‐up of a community‐based cohort of people with diabetes: The incidence of foot ulceration and death
Abstract Background Identifying people with diabetes who are likely to experience a foot ulcer is an important part of preventative care. Many cohort studies report predictive models for foot ulcerations and for people with diabetes, but reports of long‐term outcomes are scarce. Aim We aimed to deve...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2024-01-01
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| Series: | Endocrinology, Diabetes & Metabolism |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/edm2.459 |
| _version_ | 1797346955385372672 |
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| author | Shijat Ali Mohammed Fay Crawford Genevieve Isabelle Cezard Michail Papathomas |
| author_facet | Shijat Ali Mohammed Fay Crawford Genevieve Isabelle Cezard Michail Papathomas |
| author_sort | Shijat Ali Mohammed |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background Identifying people with diabetes who are likely to experience a foot ulcer is an important part of preventative care. Many cohort studies report predictive models for foot ulcerations and for people with diabetes, but reports of long‐term outcomes are scarce. Aim We aimed to develop a predictive model for foot ulceration in diabetes using a range of potential risk factors with a follow‐up of 10 years after recruitment. A new foot ulceration was the outcome of interest and death was the secondary outcome of interest. Design A 10‐year follow‐up cohort study. Methods 1193 people with a diagnosis of diabetes who took part in a study in 2006–2007 were invited to participate in a 10‐year follow‐up. We developed a prognostic model for the incidence of incident foot ulcerations using a survival analysis, Cox proportional hazards model. We also utilised survival analysis Kaplan–Meier curves, and relevant tests, to assess the association between the predictor variables for foot ulceration and death. Results At 10‐year follow‐up, 41% of the original study population had died and more than 18% had developed a foot ulcer. The predictive factors for foot ulceration were an inability to feel a 10 g monofilament or vibration from a tuning fork, previous foot ulceration and duration of diabetes. Conclusions The prognostic model shows an increased risk of ulceration for those with previous history of foot ulcerations, insensitivity to a 10 g monofilament, a tuning fork and duration of diabetes. The incidence of foot ulceration at 10‐year follow‐up was 18%; however, the risk of death for this community‐based population was far greater than the risk of foot ulceration. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T11:40:27Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-809930a4bcf24f609c961cf507e32f5a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2398-9238 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T11:40:27Z |
| publishDate | 2024-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Endocrinology, Diabetes & Metabolism |
| spelling | doaj.art-809930a4bcf24f609c961cf507e32f5a2024-01-25T06:48:36ZengWileyEndocrinology, Diabetes & Metabolism2398-92382024-01-0171n/an/a10.1002/edm2.459The 10‐year follow‐up of a community‐based cohort of people with diabetes: The incidence of foot ulceration and deathShijat Ali Mohammed0Fay Crawford1Genevieve Isabelle Cezard2Michail Papathomas3School of Mathematics and Statistics University of St Andrews St Andrews UKSchool of Health and Social Care University of Essex Colchester UKBritish Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care University of Cambridge Cambridge UKSchool of Mathematics and Statistics University of St Andrews St Andrews UKAbstract Background Identifying people with diabetes who are likely to experience a foot ulcer is an important part of preventative care. Many cohort studies report predictive models for foot ulcerations and for people with diabetes, but reports of long‐term outcomes are scarce. Aim We aimed to develop a predictive model for foot ulceration in diabetes using a range of potential risk factors with a follow‐up of 10 years after recruitment. A new foot ulceration was the outcome of interest and death was the secondary outcome of interest. Design A 10‐year follow‐up cohort study. Methods 1193 people with a diagnosis of diabetes who took part in a study in 2006–2007 were invited to participate in a 10‐year follow‐up. We developed a prognostic model for the incidence of incident foot ulcerations using a survival analysis, Cox proportional hazards model. We also utilised survival analysis Kaplan–Meier curves, and relevant tests, to assess the association between the predictor variables for foot ulceration and death. Results At 10‐year follow‐up, 41% of the original study population had died and more than 18% had developed a foot ulcer. The predictive factors for foot ulceration were an inability to feel a 10 g monofilament or vibration from a tuning fork, previous foot ulceration and duration of diabetes. Conclusions The prognostic model shows an increased risk of ulceration for those with previous history of foot ulcerations, insensitivity to a 10 g monofilament, a tuning fork and duration of diabetes. The incidence of foot ulceration at 10‐year follow‐up was 18%; however, the risk of death for this community‐based population was far greater than the risk of foot ulceration.https://doi.org/10.1002/edm2.459cohort studydiabetes mellitusfoot ulcerprediction |
| spellingShingle | Shijat Ali Mohammed Fay Crawford Genevieve Isabelle Cezard Michail Papathomas The 10‐year follow‐up of a community‐based cohort of people with diabetes: The incidence of foot ulceration and death Endocrinology, Diabetes & Metabolism cohort study diabetes mellitus foot ulcer prediction |
| title | The 10‐year follow‐up of a community‐based cohort of people with diabetes: The incidence of foot ulceration and death |
| title_full | The 10‐year follow‐up of a community‐based cohort of people with diabetes: The incidence of foot ulceration and death |
| title_fullStr | The 10‐year follow‐up of a community‐based cohort of people with diabetes: The incidence of foot ulceration and death |
| title_full_unstemmed | The 10‐year follow‐up of a community‐based cohort of people with diabetes: The incidence of foot ulceration and death |
| title_short | The 10‐year follow‐up of a community‐based cohort of people with diabetes: The incidence of foot ulceration and death |
| title_sort | 10 year follow up of a community based cohort of people with diabetes the incidence of foot ulceration and death |
| topic | cohort study diabetes mellitus foot ulcer prediction |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/edm2.459 |
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