Underlying drivers of decade-long fluctuation in the global mean sea-level rise

Natural climate variability can mask the background trend of global mean sea-level (GMSL) caused by global warming. Recent advances in satellite measurements and ocean heat-content estimates have enabled the monitoring of GMSL budget components and provide insights into ocean effects on the Earth’s...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Hyeonsoo Cha, Jae-Hong Moon, Taekyun Kim, Y Tony Song
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: IOP Publishing 2021-01-01
Series:Environmental Research Letters
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3d58
Description
Summary:Natural climate variability can mask the background trend of global mean sea-level (GMSL) caused by global warming. Recent advances in satellite measurements and ocean heat-content estimates have enabled the monitoring of GMSL budget components and provide insights into ocean effects on the Earth’s energy imbalance and hydrology. We observed a decadal fluctuation in GMSL rise, which coincides with an increasing trend in the 2010s after the warming ‘hiatus’ during the 2000s, and demonstrated that the rate of sea-level rise can be attributed to climate-related decadal fluctuations in ocean heat storage and hydrology. Since ∼2011, the decadal climate variability has resulted in additional ocean mass gain (271 ± 89 Gt yr ^−1 ) from glacier-free land water storage and increased ocean heat uptake (0.28 ± 0.17 W m ^−2 ), increasing the GMSL rise rate by 1.4 ± 0.4 mm yr ^−1 . The suggested estimates of sea-level and Earth’s energy budgets highlight the importance of natural variability in understanding the impacts of the ongoing sea-level rise.
ISSN:1748-9326