High-Resolution Projections of Global Sea Surface Temperatures Reveal Critical Warming in Humpback Whale Breeding Grounds
Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are triggering changes in global climate and warming the ocean. This will affect many marine organisms, particularly those with high site fidelity and habitat temperature preferences, such as humpback whales on their breeding grounds. To study the impacts of a...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Frontiers Media S.A.
2022-05-01
|
| Series: | Frontiers in Marine Science |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2022.837772/full |
| _version_ | 1811307758462435328 |
|---|---|
| author | Hannah von Hammerstein Renee O. Setter Martin van Aswegen Jens J. Currie Stephanie H. Stack Stephanie H. Stack |
| author_facet | Hannah von Hammerstein Renee O. Setter Martin van Aswegen Jens J. Currie Stephanie H. Stack Stephanie H. Stack |
| author_sort | Hannah von Hammerstein |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are triggering changes in global climate and warming the ocean. This will affect many marine organisms, particularly those with high site fidelity and habitat temperature preferences, such as humpback whales on their breeding grounds. To study the impacts of a warming ocean on marine organisms, large-scale projections of climatic variables are crucial. Global models are of 0.25 - 1° (~25-100 km) resolution, and not ideal to predict localized changes. Here, we provide 0.05° resolution (~5 km) sea surface temperature (SST) projections, statistically downscaled using the delta method. We illustrate the shifting isotherms of the critical 21 and 28°C boundaries, which border the climatic envelope that humpback whales prefer for their breeding grounds, over the course of the 21st century on a decadal temporal resolution. Results show by the end of the 21st century, 35% of humpback whale breeding areas will experience SSTs above or within 1°C of current thresholds if present-day social, economic, and technological trends continue (‘middle of the road’ CMIP6 greenhouse gas trajectory SSP2-RCP4.5). This number rises to 67% under the scenario describing rapid economic growth in carbon-intensive industries (‘fossil-fueled development’ CMIP6 greenhouse gas trajectory SSP5-RCP8.5). These projections highlight the importance of reducing global greenhouse gas emissions and minimizing further SST increases to preserve ecological integrity of humpback whale breeding areas. In this context, our results emphasize the need to focus on protection of critical ocean habitat and to provide high-resolution climate data for this purpose. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T09:09:57Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-80a739dce6df4b4c847b7937eb67111c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2296-7745 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T09:09:57Z |
| publishDate | 2022-05-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Marine Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-80a739dce6df4b4c847b7937eb67111c2022-12-22T02:52:54ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Marine Science2296-77452022-05-01910.3389/fmars.2022.837772837772High-Resolution Projections of Global Sea Surface Temperatures Reveal Critical Warming in Humpback Whale Breeding GroundsHannah von Hammerstein0Renee O. Setter1Martin van Aswegen2Jens J. Currie3Stephanie H. Stack4Stephanie H. Stack5Department of Geography and Environment, University of Hawai’i at Mānoa, Honolulu, HI, United StatesDepartment of Geography and Environment, University of Hawai’i at Mānoa, Honolulu, HI, United StatesMarine Mammal Research Program, Hawai’i Institute of Marine Biology, University of Hawai’i at Mānoa, Kaneohe, HI, United StatesPacific Whale Foundation, Wailuku, HI, United StatesPacific Whale Foundation, Wailuku, HI, United StatesPacific Whale Foundation Australia, Urangan, QLD, AustraliaAnthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are triggering changes in global climate and warming the ocean. This will affect many marine organisms, particularly those with high site fidelity and habitat temperature preferences, such as humpback whales on their breeding grounds. To study the impacts of a warming ocean on marine organisms, large-scale projections of climatic variables are crucial. Global models are of 0.25 - 1° (~25-100 km) resolution, and not ideal to predict localized changes. Here, we provide 0.05° resolution (~5 km) sea surface temperature (SST) projections, statistically downscaled using the delta method. We illustrate the shifting isotherms of the critical 21 and 28°C boundaries, which border the climatic envelope that humpback whales prefer for their breeding grounds, over the course of the 21st century on a decadal temporal resolution. Results show by the end of the 21st century, 35% of humpback whale breeding areas will experience SSTs above or within 1°C of current thresholds if present-day social, economic, and technological trends continue (‘middle of the road’ CMIP6 greenhouse gas trajectory SSP2-RCP4.5). This number rises to 67% under the scenario describing rapid economic growth in carbon-intensive industries (‘fossil-fueled development’ CMIP6 greenhouse gas trajectory SSP5-RCP8.5). These projections highlight the importance of reducing global greenhouse gas emissions and minimizing further SST increases to preserve ecological integrity of humpback whale breeding areas. In this context, our results emphasize the need to focus on protection of critical ocean habitat and to provide high-resolution climate data for this purpose.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2022.837772/fullhumpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae)breeding groundssea surface temperature (SST)climate changeclimate modelingstatistical downscaling |
| spellingShingle | Hannah von Hammerstein Renee O. Setter Martin van Aswegen Jens J. Currie Stephanie H. Stack Stephanie H. Stack High-Resolution Projections of Global Sea Surface Temperatures Reveal Critical Warming in Humpback Whale Breeding Grounds Frontiers in Marine Science humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) breeding grounds sea surface temperature (SST) climate change climate modeling statistical downscaling |
| title | High-Resolution Projections of Global Sea Surface Temperatures Reveal Critical Warming in Humpback Whale Breeding Grounds |
| title_full | High-Resolution Projections of Global Sea Surface Temperatures Reveal Critical Warming in Humpback Whale Breeding Grounds |
| title_fullStr | High-Resolution Projections of Global Sea Surface Temperatures Reveal Critical Warming in Humpback Whale Breeding Grounds |
| title_full_unstemmed | High-Resolution Projections of Global Sea Surface Temperatures Reveal Critical Warming in Humpback Whale Breeding Grounds |
| title_short | High-Resolution Projections of Global Sea Surface Temperatures Reveal Critical Warming in Humpback Whale Breeding Grounds |
| title_sort | high resolution projections of global sea surface temperatures reveal critical warming in humpback whale breeding grounds |
| topic | humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) breeding grounds sea surface temperature (SST) climate change climate modeling statistical downscaling |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2022.837772/full |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT hannahvonhammerstein highresolutionprojectionsofglobalseasurfacetemperaturesrevealcriticalwarminginhumpbackwhalebreedinggrounds AT reneeosetter highresolutionprojectionsofglobalseasurfacetemperaturesrevealcriticalwarminginhumpbackwhalebreedinggrounds AT martinvanaswegen highresolutionprojectionsofglobalseasurfacetemperaturesrevealcriticalwarminginhumpbackwhalebreedinggrounds AT jensjcurrie highresolutionprojectionsofglobalseasurfacetemperaturesrevealcriticalwarminginhumpbackwhalebreedinggrounds AT stephaniehstack highresolutionprojectionsofglobalseasurfacetemperaturesrevealcriticalwarminginhumpbackwhalebreedinggrounds AT stephaniehstack highresolutionprojectionsofglobalseasurfacetemperaturesrevealcriticalwarminginhumpbackwhalebreedinggrounds |