Exploring the use of Transition Path Theory in building an oil spill prediction scheme
The Transition Path Theory (TPT) of complex systems has proven to be a robust means to statistically characterize the ensemble of trajectories that connect any two preset flow regions, say 𝒜 and ℬ, directly. More specifically, transition paths are such that they start in 𝒜 and then go to ℬ without d...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2023-03-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Marine Science |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2022.1041005/full |
| _version_ | 1811162593917665280 |
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| author | M. J. Olascoaga F. J. Beron-Vera |
| author_facet | M. J. Olascoaga F. J. Beron-Vera |
| author_sort | M. J. Olascoaga |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The Transition Path Theory (TPT) of complex systems has proven to be a robust means to statistically characterize the ensemble of trajectories that connect any two preset flow regions, say 𝒜 and ℬ, directly. More specifically, transition paths are such that they start in 𝒜 and then go to ℬ without detouring back to 𝒜 or ℬ. This way, they make an effective contribution to the transport from 𝒜 to ℬ. Here, we explore its use for building a scheme that enables predicting the evolution of an oil spill in the ocean. This involves appropriately adapting TPT such that it includes a reservoir that pumps oil into a typically open domain. Additionally, we lift up the restriction of the oil not to return to the spill site en route to a region that is targeted to be protected. TPT is applied on oil trajectories available up to the present, e.g., as integrated using velocities produced by a data assimilative system or as inferred from high-frequency radars, to make a prediction of transition oil paths beyond, without relying on forecasted oil trajectories. As a proof of concept, we consider a hypothetical oil spill in the Trion oil field, under development within the Perdido Foldbelt in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, and the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. This is done using trajectories integrated from climatological and hindcast surface velocity and winds as well as produced by satellite-tracked surface drifting buoys, in each case discretized into a Markov chain that provides a framework for the TPT-based prediction. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T06:32:01Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-80fef29ef9c742b69fe223465e3fe2aa |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2296-7745 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T06:32:01Z |
| publishDate | 2023-03-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Marine Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-80fef29ef9c742b69fe223465e3fe2aa2023-03-01T06:56:09ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Marine Science2296-77452023-03-01910.3389/fmars.2022.10410051041005Exploring the use of Transition Path Theory in building an oil spill prediction schemeM. J. Olascoaga0F. J. Beron-Vera1Department of Ocean Sciences, Rosenstiel Shool of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL, United StatesDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences, Rosenstiel Shool of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL, United StatesThe Transition Path Theory (TPT) of complex systems has proven to be a robust means to statistically characterize the ensemble of trajectories that connect any two preset flow regions, say 𝒜 and ℬ, directly. More specifically, transition paths are such that they start in 𝒜 and then go to ℬ without detouring back to 𝒜 or ℬ. This way, they make an effective contribution to the transport from 𝒜 to ℬ. Here, we explore its use for building a scheme that enables predicting the evolution of an oil spill in the ocean. This involves appropriately adapting TPT such that it includes a reservoir that pumps oil into a typically open domain. Additionally, we lift up the restriction of the oil not to return to the spill site en route to a region that is targeted to be protected. TPT is applied on oil trajectories available up to the present, e.g., as integrated using velocities produced by a data assimilative system or as inferred from high-frequency radars, to make a prediction of transition oil paths beyond, without relying on forecasted oil trajectories. As a proof of concept, we consider a hypothetical oil spill in the Trion oil field, under development within the Perdido Foldbelt in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, and the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. This is done using trajectories integrated from climatological and hindcast surface velocity and winds as well as produced by satellite-tracked surface drifting buoys, in each case discretized into a Markov chain that provides a framework for the TPT-based prediction.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2022.1041005/fullTransition Path TheoryMarkov chainopen dynamical systemnirvana and reservoir statesoil spill prediction |
| spellingShingle | M. J. Olascoaga F. J. Beron-Vera Exploring the use of Transition Path Theory in building an oil spill prediction scheme Frontiers in Marine Science Transition Path Theory Markov chain open dynamical system nirvana and reservoir states oil spill prediction |
| title | Exploring the use of Transition Path Theory in building an oil spill prediction scheme |
| title_full | Exploring the use of Transition Path Theory in building an oil spill prediction scheme |
| title_fullStr | Exploring the use of Transition Path Theory in building an oil spill prediction scheme |
| title_full_unstemmed | Exploring the use of Transition Path Theory in building an oil spill prediction scheme |
| title_short | Exploring the use of Transition Path Theory in building an oil spill prediction scheme |
| title_sort | exploring the use of transition path theory in building an oil spill prediction scheme |
| topic | Transition Path Theory Markov chain open dynamical system nirvana and reservoir states oil spill prediction |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2022.1041005/full |
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