Projections of Primary and Revision Shoulder Arthroplasty until 2040: Facing a Massive Rise in Fracture-Related Procedures
Although the demand for shoulder arthroplasties has reached its highest number worldwide, there remains a lack of epidemiologic data regarding recent and future trends. In this study, data for all shoulder arthroplasties (hemiarthroplasty, reverse/anatomic shoulder arthroplasty) from the nationwide...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2021-10-01
|
| Series: | Journal of Clinical Medicine |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/10/21/5123 |
| _version_ | 1797512295077642240 |
|---|---|
| author | Alexander Klug Eva Herrmann Sebastian Fischer Reinhard Hoffmann Yves Gramlich |
| author_facet | Alexander Klug Eva Herrmann Sebastian Fischer Reinhard Hoffmann Yves Gramlich |
| author_sort | Alexander Klug |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Although the demand for shoulder arthroplasties has reached its highest number worldwide, there remains a lack of epidemiologic data regarding recent and future trends. In this study, data for all shoulder arthroplasties (hemiarthroplasty, reverse/anatomic shoulder arthroplasty) from the nationwide inpatient statistics of Germany (2010–2019) and population forecasts until 2040 were gathered. A Poisson and a negative binomial approach using monotone B-splines were modeled for all types of prostheses to project the annual number and incidence of primary and revision arthroplasty. Additionally, trends in main indicators were also gathered and expected changes were calculated. Overall, the number of primary shoulder replacements is set to increase significantly by 2040, reaching at least 37,000 (95% CI 32,000–44,000) procedures per year. This trend is mainly attributable to an about 10-fold increased use of fracture-related reverse shoulder arthroplasty in patients over 80 years of age, although the number of procedures in younger patients will also rise substantially. In contrast, hemiarthroplasties will significantly decrease. The number of revision procedures is projected to increase subsequently, although the revision burden is forecast to decline. Using these country-specific projection approaches, a massive increase of primary and revision shoulder arthroplasties is expected by 2040, mainly due to a rising number of fracture-related procedures. These growth rates are substantially higher than those from hip or knee arthroplasty. As these trends are similar in most Western countries, this draws attention to the international issue, of: if healthcare systems will be able to allocate human and financial resources adequately, and if future research and fracture-prevention programs may help to temper this rising burden in the upcoming decades. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T05:58:52Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-81176d695ba64a848d47fbc9c76d1ae4 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2077-0383 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T05:58:52Z |
| publishDate | 2021-10-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Clinical Medicine |
| spelling | doaj.art-81176d695ba64a848d47fbc9c76d1ae42023-11-22T21:07:40ZengMDPI AGJournal of Clinical Medicine2077-03832021-10-011021512310.3390/jcm10215123Projections of Primary and Revision Shoulder Arthroplasty until 2040: Facing a Massive Rise in Fracture-Related ProceduresAlexander Klug0Eva Herrmann1Sebastian Fischer2Reinhard Hoffmann3Yves Gramlich4Abteilung für Unfallchirurgie und Orthopädische Chirurgie, BG Unfallklinik Frankfurt am Main gGmbH, Friedberger Landstrasse 430, 60389 Frankfurt am Main, GermanyInstitut für Biostatistik und Mathematische Modellierung, Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main, Theodor-Stern-Kai 7, 60596 Frankfurt am Main, GermanyAbteilung für Unfallchirurgie und Orthopädische Chirurgie, BG Unfallklinik Frankfurt am Main gGmbH, Friedberger Landstrasse 430, 60389 Frankfurt am Main, GermanyAbteilung für Unfallchirurgie und Orthopädische Chirurgie, BG Unfallklinik Frankfurt am Main gGmbH, Friedberger Landstrasse 430, 60389 Frankfurt am Main, GermanyAbteilung für Unfallchirurgie und Orthopädische Chirurgie, BG Unfallklinik Frankfurt am Main gGmbH, Friedberger Landstrasse 430, 60389 Frankfurt am Main, GermanyAlthough the demand for shoulder arthroplasties has reached its highest number worldwide, there remains a lack of epidemiologic data regarding recent and future trends. In this study, data for all shoulder arthroplasties (hemiarthroplasty, reverse/anatomic shoulder arthroplasty) from the nationwide inpatient statistics of Germany (2010–2019) and population forecasts until 2040 were gathered. A Poisson and a negative binomial approach using monotone B-splines were modeled for all types of prostheses to project the annual number and incidence of primary and revision arthroplasty. Additionally, trends in main indicators were also gathered and expected changes were calculated. Overall, the number of primary shoulder replacements is set to increase significantly by 2040, reaching at least 37,000 (95% CI 32,000–44,000) procedures per year. This trend is mainly attributable to an about 10-fold increased use of fracture-related reverse shoulder arthroplasty in patients over 80 years of age, although the number of procedures in younger patients will also rise substantially. In contrast, hemiarthroplasties will significantly decrease. The number of revision procedures is projected to increase subsequently, although the revision burden is forecast to decline. Using these country-specific projection approaches, a massive increase of primary and revision shoulder arthroplasties is expected by 2040, mainly due to a rising number of fracture-related procedures. These growth rates are substantially higher than those from hip or knee arthroplasty. As these trends are similar in most Western countries, this draws attention to the international issue, of: if healthcare systems will be able to allocate human and financial resources adequately, and if future research and fracture-prevention programs may help to temper this rising burden in the upcoming decades.https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/10/21/5123shoulder arthroplastyreverse shoulder arthroplastyproximal humerus fracturehemiarthroplastyprojectionsrevision |
| spellingShingle | Alexander Klug Eva Herrmann Sebastian Fischer Reinhard Hoffmann Yves Gramlich Projections of Primary and Revision Shoulder Arthroplasty until 2040: Facing a Massive Rise in Fracture-Related Procedures Journal of Clinical Medicine shoulder arthroplasty reverse shoulder arthroplasty proximal humerus fracture hemiarthroplasty projections revision |
| title | Projections of Primary and Revision Shoulder Arthroplasty until 2040: Facing a Massive Rise in Fracture-Related Procedures |
| title_full | Projections of Primary and Revision Shoulder Arthroplasty until 2040: Facing a Massive Rise in Fracture-Related Procedures |
| title_fullStr | Projections of Primary and Revision Shoulder Arthroplasty until 2040: Facing a Massive Rise in Fracture-Related Procedures |
| title_full_unstemmed | Projections of Primary and Revision Shoulder Arthroplasty until 2040: Facing a Massive Rise in Fracture-Related Procedures |
| title_short | Projections of Primary and Revision Shoulder Arthroplasty until 2040: Facing a Massive Rise in Fracture-Related Procedures |
| title_sort | projections of primary and revision shoulder arthroplasty until 2040 facing a massive rise in fracture related procedures |
| topic | shoulder arthroplasty reverse shoulder arthroplasty proximal humerus fracture hemiarthroplasty projections revision |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/10/21/5123 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT alexanderklug projectionsofprimaryandrevisionshoulderarthroplastyuntil2040facingamassiveriseinfracturerelatedprocedures AT evaherrmann projectionsofprimaryandrevisionshoulderarthroplastyuntil2040facingamassiveriseinfracturerelatedprocedures AT sebastianfischer projectionsofprimaryandrevisionshoulderarthroplastyuntil2040facingamassiveriseinfracturerelatedprocedures AT reinhardhoffmann projectionsofprimaryandrevisionshoulderarthroplastyuntil2040facingamassiveriseinfracturerelatedprocedures AT yvesgramlich projectionsofprimaryandrevisionshoulderarthroplastyuntil2040facingamassiveriseinfracturerelatedprocedures |