The Possible Impacts of Different Global Warming Levels on Major Crops in Egypt

Climate change implications are a severe risk to food security and the economy. Global warming could disturb the production of both rainfed and irrigated agriculture thru the amplify of yield water requests in many areas. In this study, the fast-track projections available through the Inter-Sectors...

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Main Authors: Gamil Gamal, Magdy Samak, Mohamed Shahba
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2021-11-01
Series:Atmosphere
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/12/1589
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author Gamil Gamal
Magdy Samak
Mohamed Shahba
author_facet Gamil Gamal
Magdy Samak
Mohamed Shahba
author_sort Gamil Gamal
collection DOAJ
description Climate change implications are a severe risk to food security and the economy. Global warming could disturb the production of both rainfed and irrigated agriculture thru the amplify of yield water requests in many areas. In this study, the fast-track projections available through the Inter-Sectors Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) were presented and analyzed to assess the effects of two global warming (GW) levels (1.5 and 2.0 °C) on the maize and wheat yields in Egypt. Outcomes proposed spatial variations in the effects of temperature change on crop yield. Compared with the referenced situation, an observed national average change in wheat yield about 5.0% (0.0% to 9.0%) and 5.0% (−3.0% to 14.0%) under GW1.5 and GW2.0 respectively. While for maize yield, the change in national average about −1.0% (−5.0% to 3.0%) and −4.0% (−8.0% to 2.0%) under GW1.5 and GW2.0 respectively. GW1.5 could be helpful for wheat yield, but the positive effect decayed when the warming level reached 2.0 °C overhead the pre-industrial level. Nevertheless, the possible deviations to Egypt’s maize production under the GW1.5 and GW2.0 scenarios are unclear where the models do not agree with the sign of change. Adjusting the temperature rise within 1.5 °C would diminish the yield reduction, as it is an extraordinary priority to safeguard crop production. To achieve Progress of innovative agronomic managing plans and swapping to additional drought-resistant crops may be valuable for coping with climate change in regions vulnerable to yield decline.
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spelling doaj.art-8165598fa24d45a89e2371d36aeef4a52023-11-23T03:45:54ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332021-11-011212158910.3390/atmos12121589The Possible Impacts of Different Global Warming Levels on Major Crops in EgyptGamil Gamal0Magdy Samak1Mohamed Shahba2Natural Resources Department, Faculty of African Postgraduate Studies, Cairo University, Giza 12613, EgyptNatural Resources Department, Faculty of African Postgraduate Studies, Cairo University, Giza 12613, EgyptNatural Resources Department, Faculty of African Postgraduate Studies, Cairo University, Giza 12613, EgyptClimate change implications are a severe risk to food security and the economy. Global warming could disturb the production of both rainfed and irrigated agriculture thru the amplify of yield water requests in many areas. In this study, the fast-track projections available through the Inter-Sectors Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) were presented and analyzed to assess the effects of two global warming (GW) levels (1.5 and 2.0 °C) on the maize and wheat yields in Egypt. Outcomes proposed spatial variations in the effects of temperature change on crop yield. Compared with the referenced situation, an observed national average change in wheat yield about 5.0% (0.0% to 9.0%) and 5.0% (−3.0% to 14.0%) under GW1.5 and GW2.0 respectively. While for maize yield, the change in national average about −1.0% (−5.0% to 3.0%) and −4.0% (−8.0% to 2.0%) under GW1.5 and GW2.0 respectively. GW1.5 could be helpful for wheat yield, but the positive effect decayed when the warming level reached 2.0 °C overhead the pre-industrial level. Nevertheless, the possible deviations to Egypt’s maize production under the GW1.5 and GW2.0 scenarios are unclear where the models do not agree with the sign of change. Adjusting the temperature rise within 1.5 °C would diminish the yield reduction, as it is an extraordinary priority to safeguard crop production. To achieve Progress of innovative agronomic managing plans and swapping to additional drought-resistant crops may be valuable for coping with climate change in regions vulnerable to yield decline.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/12/1589climate changewheatmaizeglobal warmingEgyptfood security
spellingShingle Gamil Gamal
Magdy Samak
Mohamed Shahba
The Possible Impacts of Different Global Warming Levels on Major Crops in Egypt
Atmosphere
climate change
wheat
maize
global warming
Egypt
food security
title The Possible Impacts of Different Global Warming Levels on Major Crops in Egypt
title_full The Possible Impacts of Different Global Warming Levels on Major Crops in Egypt
title_fullStr The Possible Impacts of Different Global Warming Levels on Major Crops in Egypt
title_full_unstemmed The Possible Impacts of Different Global Warming Levels on Major Crops in Egypt
title_short The Possible Impacts of Different Global Warming Levels on Major Crops in Egypt
title_sort possible impacts of different global warming levels on major crops in egypt
topic climate change
wheat
maize
global warming
Egypt
food security
url https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/12/1589
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