Evaluation of Different Crop Models for Simulating Rice Development and Yield in the U.S. Mississippi Delta
The United States is one of the top rice exporters in the world, but warming temperatures and other climate trends may affect grain yield and quality. The use of crop models as decision support tools for a climate impact assessment would be beneficial, but suitability of models for representative gr...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2020-12-01
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| Series: | Agronomy |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/10/12/1905 |
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| author | Sanai Li David Fleisher Dennis Timlin Vangimalla R. Reddy Zhuangji Wang Anna McClung |
| author_facet | Sanai Li David Fleisher Dennis Timlin Vangimalla R. Reddy Zhuangji Wang Anna McClung |
| author_sort | Sanai Li |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The United States is one of the top rice exporters in the world, but warming temperatures and other climate trends may affect grain yield and quality. The use of crop models as decision support tools for a climate impact assessment would be beneficial, but suitability of models for representative growing conditions need to be verified. Therefore, the ability of CERES-Rice and ORYZA crop models to predict rice yield and growing season duration in the Mississippi Delta region was assessed for two widely-grown varieties using a 34-year database. CERES-Rice simulated growth duration more accurately than ORYZA as a result of the latter model’s use of lower cardinal temperatures. An increase in base and optimal temperatures improved ORYZA accuracy and reduced systematic error (e.g., correlation coefficient increased by 0.03–0.27 and root mean square error decreased by 0.3–1.9 days). Both models subsequently showed acceptable skill in reproducing the growing season duration and had similar performance for predicting rice yield for most locations and years. CERES-Rice predictions were more sensitive to years with lower solar radiation, but neither model accurately mimicked negative impacts of very warm or cold temperatures. Both models were shown to reproduce 50% percentile yield trends of more than 100 varieties in the region for the 34-year period when calibrated with two representative cultivars. These results suggest that both models are suitable for exploring the general response of multiple rice cultivars in the Mississippi Delta region for decision support studies involving the current climate. The response of rice growth and development to cold injury and high temperature stress, and variation in cultivar sensitivity, should be further developed and tested for improved decision making tools. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T14:22:26Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-816c28b15f1047d186e9417c55906f3b |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4395 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T14:22:26Z |
| publishDate | 2020-12-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Agronomy |
| spelling | doaj.art-816c28b15f1047d186e9417c55906f3b2023-11-20T23:16:46ZengMDPI AGAgronomy2073-43952020-12-011012190510.3390/agronomy10121905Evaluation of Different Crop Models for Simulating Rice Development and Yield in the U.S. Mississippi DeltaSanai Li0David Fleisher1Dennis Timlin2Vangimalla R. Reddy3Zhuangji Wang4Anna McClung5USDA-ARS Adaptive Cropping Systems Laboratory, 10300 Baltimore Avenue, Beltsville, MD 20705, USAUSDA-ARS Adaptive Cropping Systems Laboratory, 10300 Baltimore Avenue, Beltsville, MD 20705, USAUSDA-ARS Adaptive Cropping Systems Laboratory, 10300 Baltimore Avenue, Beltsville, MD 20705, USAUSDA-ARS Adaptive Cropping Systems Laboratory, 10300 Baltimore Avenue, Beltsville, MD 20705, USAUSDA-ARS Adaptive Cropping Systems Laboratory, 10300 Baltimore Avenue, Beltsville, MD 20705, USAUSDA Agricultural Research Service, Dale Bumpers National Rice Research Center, 2890 Hwy 130 E, Stuttgart, AR 72160, USAThe United States is one of the top rice exporters in the world, but warming temperatures and other climate trends may affect grain yield and quality. The use of crop models as decision support tools for a climate impact assessment would be beneficial, but suitability of models for representative growing conditions need to be verified. Therefore, the ability of CERES-Rice and ORYZA crop models to predict rice yield and growing season duration in the Mississippi Delta region was assessed for two widely-grown varieties using a 34-year database. CERES-Rice simulated growth duration more accurately than ORYZA as a result of the latter model’s use of lower cardinal temperatures. An increase in base and optimal temperatures improved ORYZA accuracy and reduced systematic error (e.g., correlation coefficient increased by 0.03–0.27 and root mean square error decreased by 0.3–1.9 days). Both models subsequently showed acceptable skill in reproducing the growing season duration and had similar performance for predicting rice yield for most locations and years. CERES-Rice predictions were more sensitive to years with lower solar radiation, but neither model accurately mimicked negative impacts of very warm or cold temperatures. Both models were shown to reproduce 50% percentile yield trends of more than 100 varieties in the region for the 34-year period when calibrated with two representative cultivars. These results suggest that both models are suitable for exploring the general response of multiple rice cultivars in the Mississippi Delta region for decision support studies involving the current climate. The response of rice growth and development to cold injury and high temperature stress, and variation in cultivar sensitivity, should be further developed and tested for improved decision making tools.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/10/12/1905rice yieldgrowth durationextreme temperaturecrop model |
| spellingShingle | Sanai Li David Fleisher Dennis Timlin Vangimalla R. Reddy Zhuangji Wang Anna McClung Evaluation of Different Crop Models for Simulating Rice Development and Yield in the U.S. Mississippi Delta Agronomy rice yield growth duration extreme temperature crop model |
| title | Evaluation of Different Crop Models for Simulating Rice Development and Yield in the U.S. Mississippi Delta |
| title_full | Evaluation of Different Crop Models for Simulating Rice Development and Yield in the U.S. Mississippi Delta |
| title_fullStr | Evaluation of Different Crop Models for Simulating Rice Development and Yield in the U.S. Mississippi Delta |
| title_full_unstemmed | Evaluation of Different Crop Models for Simulating Rice Development and Yield in the U.S. Mississippi Delta |
| title_short | Evaluation of Different Crop Models for Simulating Rice Development and Yield in the U.S. Mississippi Delta |
| title_sort | evaluation of different crop models for simulating rice development and yield in the u s mississippi delta |
| topic | rice yield growth duration extreme temperature crop model |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/10/12/1905 |
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