A conceptual socio-hydrological model of the co-evolution of humans and water: case study of the Tarim River basin, western China
The complex interactions and feedbacks between humans and water are critically important issues but remain poorly understood in the newly proposed discipline of socio-hydrology (Sivapalan et al., 2012). An exploratory model with the appropriate level of simplification can be valuable for improving o...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2015-02-01
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| Series: | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/19/1035/2015/hess-19-1035-2015.pdf |
| _version_ | 1811282948950851584 |
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| author | D. Liu F. Tian M. Lin M. Sivapalan |
| author_facet | D. Liu F. Tian M. Lin M. Sivapalan |
| author_sort | D. Liu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The complex interactions and feedbacks between humans and water are
critically important issues but remain poorly understood in the newly
proposed discipline of socio-hydrology (Sivapalan et al., 2012). An
exploratory model with the appropriate level of simplification can be
valuable for improving our understanding of the co-evolution and
self-organization of socio-hydrological systems driven by interactions and
feedbacks operating at different scales. In this study, a simplified
conceptual socio-hydrological model based on logistic growth curves is
developed for the Tarim River basin in western China and is used to
illustrate the explanatory power of such a co-evolutionary model. The study
area is the main stream of the Tarim River, which is divided into two
modeling units. The socio-hydrological system is composed of four
sub-systems, i.e., the hydrological, ecological, economic, and social
sub-systems. In each modeling unit, the hydrological equation focusing on
water balance is coupled to the other three evolutionary equations to
represent the dynamics of the social sub-system (denoted by population), the
economic sub-system (denoted by irrigated crop area ratio), and the
ecological sub-system (denoted by natural vegetation cover), each of which
is expressed in terms of a logistic growth curve. Four feedback loops are
identified to represent the complex interactions among different sub-systems
and different spatial units, of which two are inner loops occurring within
each separate unit and the other two are outer loops linking the two
modeling units. The feedback mechanisms are incorporated into the
constitutive relations for model parameters, i.e., the colonization and
mortality rates in the logistic growth curves that are jointly determined by
the state variables of all sub-systems. The co-evolution of the Tarim
socio-hydrological system is then analyzed with this conceptual model to
gain insights into the overall system dynamics and its sensitivity to the
external drivers and internal system variables. The results show a costly
pendulum swing between a balanced distribution of socio-economic and natural
ecologic resources among the upper and lower reaches and a highly skewed
distribution towards the upper reach. This evolution is principally driven
by the attitudinal changes occurring within water resources management
policies that reflect the evolving community awareness of society to concerns
regarding the ecology and environment. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T02:01:49Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-8177bc7792a04057bc09c980d4083561 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1027-5606 1607-7938 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T02:01:49Z |
| publishDate | 2015-02-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-8177bc7792a04057bc09c980d40835612022-12-22T03:07:35ZengCopernicus PublicationsHydrology and Earth System Sciences1027-56061607-79382015-02-011921035105410.5194/hess-19-1035-2015A conceptual socio-hydrological model of the co-evolution of humans and water: case study of the Tarim River basin, western ChinaD. Liu0F. Tian1M. Lin2M. Sivapalan3State Key Laboratory Base of Eco-hydraulic Engineering in Arid Area, School of Water Resources and Hydropower, Xi'an University of Technology, Xi'an, 710048, ChinaDepartment of Hydraulic Engineering, State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, ChinaSchool of Statistics and Mathematics, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing, 100081, ChinaDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Department of Geography and Geographic Information Science, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801, USAThe complex interactions and feedbacks between humans and water are critically important issues but remain poorly understood in the newly proposed discipline of socio-hydrology (Sivapalan et al., 2012). An exploratory model with the appropriate level of simplification can be valuable for improving our understanding of the co-evolution and self-organization of socio-hydrological systems driven by interactions and feedbacks operating at different scales. In this study, a simplified conceptual socio-hydrological model based on logistic growth curves is developed for the Tarim River basin in western China and is used to illustrate the explanatory power of such a co-evolutionary model. The study area is the main stream of the Tarim River, which is divided into two modeling units. The socio-hydrological system is composed of four sub-systems, i.e., the hydrological, ecological, economic, and social sub-systems. In each modeling unit, the hydrological equation focusing on water balance is coupled to the other three evolutionary equations to represent the dynamics of the social sub-system (denoted by population), the economic sub-system (denoted by irrigated crop area ratio), and the ecological sub-system (denoted by natural vegetation cover), each of which is expressed in terms of a logistic growth curve. Four feedback loops are identified to represent the complex interactions among different sub-systems and different spatial units, of which two are inner loops occurring within each separate unit and the other two are outer loops linking the two modeling units. The feedback mechanisms are incorporated into the constitutive relations for model parameters, i.e., the colonization and mortality rates in the logistic growth curves that are jointly determined by the state variables of all sub-systems. The co-evolution of the Tarim socio-hydrological system is then analyzed with this conceptual model to gain insights into the overall system dynamics and its sensitivity to the external drivers and internal system variables. The results show a costly pendulum swing between a balanced distribution of socio-economic and natural ecologic resources among the upper and lower reaches and a highly skewed distribution towards the upper reach. This evolution is principally driven by the attitudinal changes occurring within water resources management policies that reflect the evolving community awareness of society to concerns regarding the ecology and environment.http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/19/1035/2015/hess-19-1035-2015.pdf |
| spellingShingle | D. Liu F. Tian M. Lin M. Sivapalan A conceptual socio-hydrological model of the co-evolution of humans and water: case study of the Tarim River basin, western China Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| title | A conceptual socio-hydrological model of the co-evolution of humans and water: case study of the Tarim River basin, western China |
| title_full | A conceptual socio-hydrological model of the co-evolution of humans and water: case study of the Tarim River basin, western China |
| title_fullStr | A conceptual socio-hydrological model of the co-evolution of humans and water: case study of the Tarim River basin, western China |
| title_full_unstemmed | A conceptual socio-hydrological model of the co-evolution of humans and water: case study of the Tarim River basin, western China |
| title_short | A conceptual socio-hydrological model of the co-evolution of humans and water: case study of the Tarim River basin, western China |
| title_sort | conceptual socio hydrological model of the co evolution of humans and water case study of the tarim river basin western china |
| url | http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/19/1035/2015/hess-19-1035-2015.pdf |
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