Climate change projections of boreal summer precipitation over tropical America by using statistical downscaling from CMIP5 models
Climate change projections for the last 30 years of the 21st century, for boreal summer precipitation in tropical America, have been made by developing a statistical downscaling (SD) model applied to the SLP outputs of 20 GCMs of CMIP5, for present climate (1970–2000), and for future (2071–2100) und...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
IOP Publishing
2017-01-01
|
| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9bf7 |
| _version_ | 1797748215261429760 |
|---|---|
| author | Reiner Palomino-Lemus Samir Córdoba-Machado Sonia Raquel Gámiz-Fortis Yolanda Castro-Díez María Jesús Esteban-Parra |
| author_facet | Reiner Palomino-Lemus Samir Córdoba-Machado Sonia Raquel Gámiz-Fortis Yolanda Castro-Díez María Jesús Esteban-Parra |
| author_sort | Reiner Palomino-Lemus |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate change projections for the last 30 years of the 21st century, for boreal summer precipitation in tropical America, have been made by developing a statistical downscaling (SD) model applied to the SLP outputs of 20 GCMs of CMIP5, for present climate (1970–2000), and for future (2071–2100) under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. For present climate, many SD GCMs faithfully reproduce the precipitation field in many regions of the study area. For future climate, as the radiative forcing increases, the projected changes intensify and the regions affected expand, with higher coherence between models. The zone between central and southeastern Brazil registered the most pronounced precipitation changes by a large number of SD models, even for the RCP2.6. Except for this region in Brazil, in general, the changes in rainfall range from moderate (± 25%) to intense (from ±70% to ±100%) as the radiative forcing increases from the RCP2.6−RCP8.5. For this latter scenario, all SD models present significant precipitation changes for more than 50% of the area, in some cases reaching 75% of area with significant changes. For the ensemble mean, the results show three extensive regions with significant changes under the three scenarios, the most highlighted changes being for the RCP8.5: a northwest-southeast band that extends from northern Mexico to eastern Brazil, crossing through northern Colombia, along with the regions in the south of the study area, with generally moderate precipitation increases; and a band that extends from eastern Ecuador to southeastern Brazil, with major decreasing changes. This pattern of change could be related with a possible strengthening in frequency in terms of La Niña events for the end of the century. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:01:43Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-821bd81c26fc4624be5d248d6f6e7553 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:01:43Z |
| publishDate | 2017-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-821bd81c26fc4624be5d248d6f6e75532023-08-09T14:36:02ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262017-01-01121212401110.1088/1748-9326/aa9bf7Climate change projections of boreal summer precipitation over tropical America by using statistical downscaling from CMIP5 modelsReiner Palomino-Lemus0Samir Córdoba-Machado1Sonia Raquel Gámiz-Fortis2Yolanda Castro-Díez3María Jesús Esteban-Parra4https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1350-6150Department of Applied Physics, University of Granada , Granada, Spain; Technological University of Chocó , ColombiaDepartment of Applied Physics, University of Granada , Granada, Spain; Technological University of Chocó , ColombiaDepartment of Applied Physics, University of Granada , Granada, SpainDepartment of Applied Physics, University of Granada , Granada, SpainDepartment of Applied Physics, University of Granada , Granada, Spain; Departamento de Física Aplicada Facultad de Ciencias Universidad de Granada , Campus Fuentenueva s/n, 18071 Granada Spain; Author to whom any correspondence should be addressed.Climate change projections for the last 30 years of the 21st century, for boreal summer precipitation in tropical America, have been made by developing a statistical downscaling (SD) model applied to the SLP outputs of 20 GCMs of CMIP5, for present climate (1970–2000), and for future (2071–2100) under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. For present climate, many SD GCMs faithfully reproduce the precipitation field in many regions of the study area. For future climate, as the radiative forcing increases, the projected changes intensify and the regions affected expand, with higher coherence between models. The zone between central and southeastern Brazil registered the most pronounced precipitation changes by a large number of SD models, even for the RCP2.6. Except for this region in Brazil, in general, the changes in rainfall range from moderate (± 25%) to intense (from ±70% to ±100%) as the radiative forcing increases from the RCP2.6−RCP8.5. For this latter scenario, all SD models present significant precipitation changes for more than 50% of the area, in some cases reaching 75% of area with significant changes. For the ensemble mean, the results show three extensive regions with significant changes under the three scenarios, the most highlighted changes being for the RCP8.5: a northwest-southeast band that extends from northern Mexico to eastern Brazil, crossing through northern Colombia, along with the regions in the south of the study area, with generally moderate precipitation increases; and a band that extends from eastern Ecuador to southeastern Brazil, with major decreasing changes. This pattern of change could be related with a possible strengthening in frequency in terms of La Niña events for the end of the century.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9bf7boreal summer precipitationclimate projectionstropical Americastatistical downscalingCMIP5 GCMs |
| spellingShingle | Reiner Palomino-Lemus Samir Córdoba-Machado Sonia Raquel Gámiz-Fortis Yolanda Castro-Díez María Jesús Esteban-Parra Climate change projections of boreal summer precipitation over tropical America by using statistical downscaling from CMIP5 models Environmental Research Letters boreal summer precipitation climate projections tropical America statistical downscaling CMIP5 GCMs |
| title | Climate change projections of boreal summer precipitation over tropical America by using statistical downscaling from CMIP5 models |
| title_full | Climate change projections of boreal summer precipitation over tropical America by using statistical downscaling from CMIP5 models |
| title_fullStr | Climate change projections of boreal summer precipitation over tropical America by using statistical downscaling from CMIP5 models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate change projections of boreal summer precipitation over tropical America by using statistical downscaling from CMIP5 models |
| title_short | Climate change projections of boreal summer precipitation over tropical America by using statistical downscaling from CMIP5 models |
| title_sort | climate change projections of boreal summer precipitation over tropical america by using statistical downscaling from cmip5 models |
| topic | boreal summer precipitation climate projections tropical America statistical downscaling CMIP5 GCMs |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9bf7 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT reinerpalominolemus climatechangeprojectionsofborealsummerprecipitationovertropicalamericabyusingstatisticaldownscalingfromcmip5models AT samircordobamachado climatechangeprojectionsofborealsummerprecipitationovertropicalamericabyusingstatisticaldownscalingfromcmip5models AT soniaraquelgamizfortis climatechangeprojectionsofborealsummerprecipitationovertropicalamericabyusingstatisticaldownscalingfromcmip5models AT yolandacastrodiez climatechangeprojectionsofborealsummerprecipitationovertropicalamericabyusingstatisticaldownscalingfromcmip5models AT mariajesusestebanparra climatechangeprojectionsofborealsummerprecipitationovertropicalamericabyusingstatisticaldownscalingfromcmip5models |