The Fate of Endemic Species Specialized in Island Habitat under Climate Change in a Mediterranean High Mountain
Mediterranean high-mountain endemic species are particularly vulnerable to climatic changes in temperature, precipitation and snow-cover dynamics. Sierra Nevada (Spain) is a biodiversity hotspot in the western Mediterranean, with an enormous plant species richness and endemicity. <i>Moehringia...
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MDPI AG
2022-11-01
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| Series: | Plants |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2223-7747/11/23/3193 |
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| author | Antonio J. Mendoza-Fernández Ángel Fernández-Ceular Domingo Alcaraz-Segura Miguel Ballesteros Julio Peñas |
| author_facet | Antonio J. Mendoza-Fernández Ángel Fernández-Ceular Domingo Alcaraz-Segura Miguel Ballesteros Julio Peñas |
| author_sort | Antonio J. Mendoza-Fernández |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Mediterranean high-mountain endemic species are particularly vulnerable to climatic changes in temperature, precipitation and snow-cover dynamics. Sierra Nevada (Spain) is a biodiversity hotspot in the western Mediterranean, with an enormous plant species richness and endemicity. <i>Moehringia fontqueri</i> is a threatened endemic plant restricted to north-facing siliceous rocks along a few ridges of the eastern Sierra Nevada. To guide conservation actions against climate change effects, here we propose the simultaneous assessment of the current reproductive success and the possible species’ range changes between current and future climatic conditions, assessing separately different subpopulations by altitude. Reproductive success was tested through the seed-set data analysis. The species’ current habitat suitability was modeled in Maxent using species occurrences, topographic, satellite and climatic variables. Future habitat suitability was carried out for two climatic scenarios (RCP 2.6 and 8.5). The results showed the lowest reproductive success at the lowest altitudes, and vice versa at the highest altitudes. Habitat suitability decreased by 80% from current conditions to the worst-case scenario (RCP 8.5). The lowest subpopulations were identified as the most vulnerable to climate change effects while the highest ones were the nearest to future suitable habitats. Our simultaneous assessment of reproductive success and habitat suitability aims to serve as a model to guide conservation, management and climate change mitigation strategies through adaptive management to safeguard the persistence of the maximum genetic pool of Mediterranean high-mountain plants threatened by climate change. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T17:35:44Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-82227a4eb6bc40d5b6b7f13b25a7b97c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2223-7747 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T17:35:44Z |
| publishDate | 2022-11-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Plants |
| spelling | doaj.art-82227a4eb6bc40d5b6b7f13b25a7b97c2023-11-24T11:53:52ZengMDPI AGPlants2223-77472022-11-011123319310.3390/plants11233193The Fate of Endemic Species Specialized in Island Habitat under Climate Change in a Mediterranean High MountainAntonio J. Mendoza-Fernández0Ángel Fernández-Ceular1Domingo Alcaraz-Segura2Miguel Ballesteros3Julio Peñas4Department of Biology and Geology, CEIMAR, CecoUAL, University of Almería, 04120 Almería, SpainDepartment of Botany, University of Granada, 18071 Granada, SpainDepartment of Botany, University of Granada, 18071 Granada, SpainDepartment of Botany, University of South Bohemia, CZ-37005 České Budějovice, Czech RepublicDepartment of Botany, University of Granada, 18071 Granada, SpainMediterranean high-mountain endemic species are particularly vulnerable to climatic changes in temperature, precipitation and snow-cover dynamics. Sierra Nevada (Spain) is a biodiversity hotspot in the western Mediterranean, with an enormous plant species richness and endemicity. <i>Moehringia fontqueri</i> is a threatened endemic plant restricted to north-facing siliceous rocks along a few ridges of the eastern Sierra Nevada. To guide conservation actions against climate change effects, here we propose the simultaneous assessment of the current reproductive success and the possible species’ range changes between current and future climatic conditions, assessing separately different subpopulations by altitude. Reproductive success was tested through the seed-set data analysis. The species’ current habitat suitability was modeled in Maxent using species occurrences, topographic, satellite and climatic variables. Future habitat suitability was carried out for two climatic scenarios (RCP 2.6 and 8.5). The results showed the lowest reproductive success at the lowest altitudes, and vice versa at the highest altitudes. Habitat suitability decreased by 80% from current conditions to the worst-case scenario (RCP 8.5). The lowest subpopulations were identified as the most vulnerable to climate change effects while the highest ones were the nearest to future suitable habitats. Our simultaneous assessment of reproductive success and habitat suitability aims to serve as a model to guide conservation, management and climate change mitigation strategies through adaptive management to safeguard the persistence of the maximum genetic pool of Mediterranean high-mountain plants threatened by climate change.https://www.mdpi.com/2223-7747/11/23/3193diversity lossfine-scale ecological niche modelingglobal change<i>Moehringia fontqueri</i>mountain cliff escarpmentsreproductive success |
| spellingShingle | Antonio J. Mendoza-Fernández Ángel Fernández-Ceular Domingo Alcaraz-Segura Miguel Ballesteros Julio Peñas The Fate of Endemic Species Specialized in Island Habitat under Climate Change in a Mediterranean High Mountain Plants diversity loss fine-scale ecological niche modeling global change <i>Moehringia fontqueri</i> mountain cliff escarpments reproductive success |
| title | The Fate of Endemic Species Specialized in Island Habitat under Climate Change in a Mediterranean High Mountain |
| title_full | The Fate of Endemic Species Specialized in Island Habitat under Climate Change in a Mediterranean High Mountain |
| title_fullStr | The Fate of Endemic Species Specialized in Island Habitat under Climate Change in a Mediterranean High Mountain |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Fate of Endemic Species Specialized in Island Habitat under Climate Change in a Mediterranean High Mountain |
| title_short | The Fate of Endemic Species Specialized in Island Habitat under Climate Change in a Mediterranean High Mountain |
| title_sort | fate of endemic species specialized in island habitat under climate change in a mediterranean high mountain |
| topic | diversity loss fine-scale ecological niche modeling global change <i>Moehringia fontqueri</i> mountain cliff escarpments reproductive success |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2223-7747/11/23/3193 |
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