A new approach to estimate fecundity rate from inter‐birth intervals
Abstract Accurate estimates of fecundity rate are key to population assessments and effectively direct conservation efforts. We present a new approach to estimate fecundity rate based on the probability of a female giving birth, conditional on a previous birth t years ago, from which an expected int...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2017-04-01
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| Series: | Ecosphere |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.1796 |
| _version_ | 1819278320050634752 |
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| author | Mònica Arso Civil Barbara Cheney Nicola J. Quick Paul M. Thompson Philip S. Hammond |
| author_facet | Mònica Arso Civil Barbara Cheney Nicola J. Quick Paul M. Thompson Philip S. Hammond |
| author_sort | Mònica Arso Civil |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Accurate estimates of fecundity rate are key to population assessments and effectively direct conservation efforts. We present a new approach to estimate fecundity rate based on the probability of a female giving birth, conditional on a previous birth t years ago, from which an expected inter‐birth interval (IBI) can be estimated. We use generalized linear mixed‐effects models to account for individual and temporal variability and apply the approach to individual reproductive histories of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) from the east coast of Scotland. We estimate a fecundity rate of 0.222 (95% CI = 0.218–0.253) and an expected IBI of 4.49 yr (95% CI = 3.94–4.93 yr). We use simulated data samples to show that the approach produces estimates with a minimum bias of <3%. Simulations are also used to investigate the effect of the most common data‐driven biases in the estimates of birth intervals and fecundity rate; we recommend longitudinal studies of at least 10 yr and capture probabilities of at least 0.3 when using this methodology. The approach may be modified to incorporate other parameters of interest and should be applicable to any population with comprehensive data on birth intervals. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-24T00:10:08Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-824228688b234eee971117b3e87436c3 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2150-8925 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-24T00:10:08Z |
| publishDate | 2017-04-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ecosphere |
| spelling | doaj.art-824228688b234eee971117b3e87436c32022-12-21T17:24:53ZengWileyEcosphere2150-89252017-04-0184n/an/a10.1002/ecs2.1796A new approach to estimate fecundity rate from inter‐birth intervalsMònica Arso Civil0Barbara Cheney1Nicola J. Quick2Paul M. Thompson3Philip S. Hammond4Sea Mammal Research Unit Scottish Oceans Institute University of St Andrews Fife KY16 8LB UKLighthouse Field Station Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences University of Aberdeen Cromarty IV11 8YL UKDuke University Marine Laboratory Nicholas School of the Environment Beaufort North Carolina 28516 USALighthouse Field Station Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences University of Aberdeen Cromarty IV11 8YL UKSea Mammal Research Unit Scottish Oceans Institute University of St Andrews Fife KY16 8LB UKAbstract Accurate estimates of fecundity rate are key to population assessments and effectively direct conservation efforts. We present a new approach to estimate fecundity rate based on the probability of a female giving birth, conditional on a previous birth t years ago, from which an expected inter‐birth interval (IBI) can be estimated. We use generalized linear mixed‐effects models to account for individual and temporal variability and apply the approach to individual reproductive histories of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) from the east coast of Scotland. We estimate a fecundity rate of 0.222 (95% CI = 0.218–0.253) and an expected IBI of 4.49 yr (95% CI = 3.94–4.93 yr). We use simulated data samples to show that the approach produces estimates with a minimum bias of <3%. Simulations are also used to investigate the effect of the most common data‐driven biases in the estimates of birth intervals and fecundity rate; we recommend longitudinal studies of at least 10 yr and capture probabilities of at least 0.3 when using this methodology. The approach may be modified to incorporate other parameters of interest and should be applicable to any population with comprehensive data on birth intervals.https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.1796birth intervalbirth probabilitybottlenose dolphincetaceansfecunditygeneralized linear mixed models |
| spellingShingle | Mònica Arso Civil Barbara Cheney Nicola J. Quick Paul M. Thompson Philip S. Hammond A new approach to estimate fecundity rate from inter‐birth intervals Ecosphere birth interval birth probability bottlenose dolphin cetaceans fecundity generalized linear mixed models |
| title | A new approach to estimate fecundity rate from inter‐birth intervals |
| title_full | A new approach to estimate fecundity rate from inter‐birth intervals |
| title_fullStr | A new approach to estimate fecundity rate from inter‐birth intervals |
| title_full_unstemmed | A new approach to estimate fecundity rate from inter‐birth intervals |
| title_short | A new approach to estimate fecundity rate from inter‐birth intervals |
| title_sort | new approach to estimate fecundity rate from inter birth intervals |
| topic | birth interval birth probability bottlenose dolphin cetaceans fecundity generalized linear mixed models |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.1796 |
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