The Difficult Task of Evaluating MDG-4
Background . The fourth Millennium Development Goal (MDG-4) proposed to reduce under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) by two thirds within 25 years. The article discusses changes in U5MR for 35 sub-Saharan African countries, for which DHS surveys are available. Methods . Analysis of DHS data, reconstruction...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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SAGE Publishing
2015-04-01
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| Series: | Global Pediatric Health |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1177/2333794X15584622 |
| _version_ | 1819041979753824256 |
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| author | Michel Garenne PhD |
| author_facet | Michel Garenne PhD |
| author_sort | Michel Garenne PhD |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background . The fourth Millennium Development Goal (MDG-4) proposed to reduce under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) by two thirds within 25 years. The article discusses changes in U5MR for 35 sub-Saharan African countries, for which DHS surveys are available. Methods . Analysis of DHS data, reconstruction of time series of U5MR, and comparison with other series. Findings . Few countries were able to achieve MDG-4 from 1985 to 2010, and the few who did seem to have achieved the goal apparently either because of abnormally high baseline or a surprisingly low endpoint. If all countries experienced significant mortality decline, only a minority had a steady decline, and many had periods of rising and falling mortality, for a variety of reasons. Interpretation . Discussion focuses on data quality, on methods for estimating levels and trends in under-5 mortality, and on the circumstances explaining rises and falls in mortality. MDG-4 appeared overambitious for Africa, given high mortality levels, political instability, economic crises, and above all emerging diseases, in particular HIV/AIDS. The last 10 years from 2000 to 2010 appeared as the most favorable period since 1960 in African countries, with the exception of countries with widespread HIV/AIDS. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-21T09:33:36Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-8256bea903c1430683857a61fa7966e6 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2333-794X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-21T09:33:36Z |
| publishDate | 2015-04-01 |
| publisher | SAGE Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Global Pediatric Health |
| spelling | doaj.art-8256bea903c1430683857a61fa7966e62022-12-21T19:08:40ZengSAGE PublishingGlobal Pediatric Health2333-794X2015-04-01210.1177/2333794X1558462210.1177_2333794X15584622The Difficult Task of Evaluating MDG-4Michel Garenne PhD0Witwatersrand University, Johannesburg, South AfricaBackground . The fourth Millennium Development Goal (MDG-4) proposed to reduce under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) by two thirds within 25 years. The article discusses changes in U5MR for 35 sub-Saharan African countries, for which DHS surveys are available. Methods . Analysis of DHS data, reconstruction of time series of U5MR, and comparison with other series. Findings . Few countries were able to achieve MDG-4 from 1985 to 2010, and the few who did seem to have achieved the goal apparently either because of abnormally high baseline or a surprisingly low endpoint. If all countries experienced significant mortality decline, only a minority had a steady decline, and many had periods of rising and falling mortality, for a variety of reasons. Interpretation . Discussion focuses on data quality, on methods for estimating levels and trends in under-5 mortality, and on the circumstances explaining rises and falls in mortality. MDG-4 appeared overambitious for Africa, given high mortality levels, political instability, economic crises, and above all emerging diseases, in particular HIV/AIDS. The last 10 years from 2000 to 2010 appeared as the most favorable period since 1960 in African countries, with the exception of countries with widespread HIV/AIDS.https://doi.org/10.1177/2333794X15584622 |
| spellingShingle | Michel Garenne PhD The Difficult Task of Evaluating MDG-4 Global Pediatric Health |
| title | The Difficult Task of Evaluating MDG-4 |
| title_full | The Difficult Task of Evaluating MDG-4 |
| title_fullStr | The Difficult Task of Evaluating MDG-4 |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Difficult Task of Evaluating MDG-4 |
| title_short | The Difficult Task of Evaluating MDG-4 |
| title_sort | difficult task of evaluating mdg 4 |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1177/2333794X15584622 |
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