Advanced Global Model Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Formation, and Intensity Predictions along Medium-Range Tracks
Marchok vortex tracker outputs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ensemble (ECEPS) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction ensemble (GEFS) are utilized to provide the Time-to-Formation (T2F of 25 kt or 35 kt) timing and positions along the weighted-mean vector moti...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2020-09-01
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| Series: | Atmosphere |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/9/1002 |
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| author | Russell L. Elsberry Hsiao-Chung Tsai Wei-Chia Chin Timothy P. Marchok |
| author_facet | Russell L. Elsberry Hsiao-Chung Tsai Wei-Chia Chin Timothy P. Marchok |
| author_sort | Russell L. Elsberry |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Marchok vortex tracker outputs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ensemble (ECEPS) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction ensemble (GEFS) are utilized to provide the Time-to-Formation (T2F of 25 kt or 35 kt) timing and positions along the weighted-mean vector motion (WMVM) track forecasts, and our weighted analog intensity Pacific (WAIP) technique provides 7-day intensity forecasts after the T2F. Example T2F(35) forecasts up to 5 days in advance of two typhoons and one non-developer in the western North Pacific are described in detail. An example T2F forecast of pre-Hurricane Kiko in the eastern North Pacific indicated that Hawaii would be under threat by the end of the 15-day ECEPS WMVM track forecast. An example T2F forecast of pre-Hurricane Lorenzo in the eastern Atlantic demonstrates that both the ECEPS and GEFS predict up to 5 days in advance that the precursor African wave will become a Tropical Storm off the west coast and will likely become a hurricane. Validations of the T2F(25) and T2F(35) timing and position errors are provided for all ECEPS and GEFS forecasts of the two typhoons and Hurricanes Kiko and Lorenzo. If the T2F timing errors are small (<1 day), the T2F position errors along the WMVM track forecasts will be small (<300 km). Although the primary focus is on the western North Pacific, the examples from the Atlantic and eastern/central North Pacific indicate the potential for future application in other basins. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T16:13:39Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-8262e80f35d24cf18ab4c2aaca133493 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4433 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T16:13:39Z |
| publishDate | 2020-09-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmosphere |
| spelling | doaj.art-8262e80f35d24cf18ab4c2aaca1334932023-11-20T14:16:39ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332020-09-01119100210.3390/atmos11091002Advanced Global Model Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Formation, and Intensity Predictions along Medium-Range TracksRussell L. Elsberry0Hsiao-Chung Tsai1Wei-Chia Chin2Timothy P. Marchok3Trauma, Health and Hazards Center, University of Colorado, Colorado Springs, CO 80918, USADepartment of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, Tamkang University, New Taipei City 251301, TaiwanDepartment of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, Tamkang University, New Taipei City 251301, TaiwanGeophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ 08540, USAMarchok vortex tracker outputs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ensemble (ECEPS) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction ensemble (GEFS) are utilized to provide the Time-to-Formation (T2F of 25 kt or 35 kt) timing and positions along the weighted-mean vector motion (WMVM) track forecasts, and our weighted analog intensity Pacific (WAIP) technique provides 7-day intensity forecasts after the T2F. Example T2F(35) forecasts up to 5 days in advance of two typhoons and one non-developer in the western North Pacific are described in detail. An example T2F forecast of pre-Hurricane Kiko in the eastern North Pacific indicated that Hawaii would be under threat by the end of the 15-day ECEPS WMVM track forecast. An example T2F forecast of pre-Hurricane Lorenzo in the eastern Atlantic demonstrates that both the ECEPS and GEFS predict up to 5 days in advance that the precursor African wave will become a Tropical Storm off the west coast and will likely become a hurricane. Validations of the T2F(25) and T2F(35) timing and position errors are provided for all ECEPS and GEFS forecasts of the two typhoons and Hurricanes Kiko and Lorenzo. If the T2F timing errors are small (<1 day), the T2F position errors along the WMVM track forecasts will be small (<300 km). Although the primary focus is on the western North Pacific, the examples from the Atlantic and eastern/central North Pacific indicate the potential for future application in other basins.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/9/1002tropical cyclone formationensemble model predictionstropical cyclone medium-range track forecaststropical cyclone intensity forecasts |
| spellingShingle | Russell L. Elsberry Hsiao-Chung Tsai Wei-Chia Chin Timothy P. Marchok Advanced Global Model Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Formation, and Intensity Predictions along Medium-Range Tracks Atmosphere tropical cyclone formation ensemble model predictions tropical cyclone medium-range track forecasts tropical cyclone intensity forecasts |
| title | Advanced Global Model Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Formation, and Intensity Predictions along Medium-Range Tracks |
| title_full | Advanced Global Model Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Formation, and Intensity Predictions along Medium-Range Tracks |
| title_fullStr | Advanced Global Model Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Formation, and Intensity Predictions along Medium-Range Tracks |
| title_full_unstemmed | Advanced Global Model Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Formation, and Intensity Predictions along Medium-Range Tracks |
| title_short | Advanced Global Model Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Formation, and Intensity Predictions along Medium-Range Tracks |
| title_sort | advanced global model ensemble forecasts of tropical cyclone formation and intensity predictions along medium range tracks |
| topic | tropical cyclone formation ensemble model predictions tropical cyclone medium-range track forecasts tropical cyclone intensity forecasts |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/9/1002 |
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