Risk modeling in working out the plan of developing the road transport cargo enterprise
Problem. In recent years, there has been a rather stable trend of reorientation of the freight transportation market in Ukraine from the predominant use of rail transport to customers preferring road transport for moving goods. Relying on the indicated trend and the prospect of its preservation in...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Kharkiv National Automobile and Highway University
2022-12-01
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| Series: | Avtomobilʹnyj Transport (Harʹkov) |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://dspace.khadi.kharkov.ua/dspace/handle/123456789/8593 |
| _version_ | 1797924408966250496 |
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| author | Shevchenko Inna Dmytriiev Illia Dmytriieva Oksana |
| author_facet | Shevchenko Inna Dmytriiev Illia Dmytriieva Oksana |
| author_sort | Shevchenko Inna |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Problem. In recent years, there has been a rather stable trend of reorientation of the freight
transportation market in Ukraine from the predominant use of rail transport to customers preferring
road transport for moving goods. Relying on the indicated trend and the prospect of its preservation in
view of the indisputable manoeuvre advantages of road transport in the conditions of martial law, the
study of the problematic issues of the development of road transport cargo enterprises, among which
the risk modeling of their operational activities occupies a prominent place, becomes relevant. Goal.
The purpose of the scientific work is to study the methodological and applied aspects of risk modeling
when working out a plan for developing a cargo enterprise of road transport. Methodology. The method
of analysis and synthesis, system approach, observation method, comparative analysis, factor analysis
method, simulation modeling method, and experimental method were used in the work to study the
methodological and applied aspects of risk modeling when elaborating a plan for developing a road
transport cargo enterprise. Results. The risk model presented in the study makes it possible to identify
the optimal level of risk when elaborating a plan for development of a road transport cargo enterprise
based on variants of the key indicator of the volume of cargo transportation (including financial
indicators). Originality. In the process of modeling in one cycle, you can get up to 24 different options
for the values of the optimal level of risk for the implementation of the plan for development of the road
transport cargo enterprise, taking into account the differentiation of the parameters of the risk model,
in particular, six options for the distance of cargo transportation and four classes of cargo. Practical
value. The proposed methodical approach to risk modeling when working out a plan for developing a
road transport cargo enterprise takes into account the probable change in demand for freight
transportation, which gives the enterprise the opportunity to quickly respond to changes in market
conditions and successfully plan activities in conditions of incomplete certainty, lack of information and
the presence of risk. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T15:01:05Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-8279a2e466884c98aff4fb2cf17c71ad |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2219-8342 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T15:01:05Z |
| publishDate | 2022-12-01 |
| publisher | Kharkiv National Automobile and Highway University |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Avtomobilʹnyj Transport (Harʹkov) |
| spelling | doaj.art-8279a2e466884c98aff4fb2cf17c71ad2023-02-15T11:53:36ZengKharkiv National Automobile and Highway UniversityAvtomobilʹnyj Transport (Harʹkov)2219-83422022-12-01519610110.30977/AT.2019-8342.2022.51.0.10Risk modeling in working out the plan of developing the road transport cargo enterpriseShevchenko Inna0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0758-9244Dmytriiev Illia1https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8693-3706Dmytriieva Oksana2https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9314-350XKharkiv National Automobile and Highway UniversityKharkiv National Automobile and Highway UniversityKharkiv National Automobile and Highway UniversityProblem. In recent years, there has been a rather stable trend of reorientation of the freight transportation market in Ukraine from the predominant use of rail transport to customers preferring road transport for moving goods. Relying on the indicated trend and the prospect of its preservation in view of the indisputable manoeuvre advantages of road transport in the conditions of martial law, the study of the problematic issues of the development of road transport cargo enterprises, among which the risk modeling of their operational activities occupies a prominent place, becomes relevant. Goal. The purpose of the scientific work is to study the methodological and applied aspects of risk modeling when working out a plan for developing a cargo enterprise of road transport. Methodology. The method of analysis and synthesis, system approach, observation method, comparative analysis, factor analysis method, simulation modeling method, and experimental method were used in the work to study the methodological and applied aspects of risk modeling when elaborating a plan for developing a road transport cargo enterprise. Results. The risk model presented in the study makes it possible to identify the optimal level of risk when elaborating a plan for development of a road transport cargo enterprise based on variants of the key indicator of the volume of cargo transportation (including financial indicators). Originality. In the process of modeling in one cycle, you can get up to 24 different options for the values of the optimal level of risk for the implementation of the plan for development of the road transport cargo enterprise, taking into account the differentiation of the parameters of the risk model, in particular, six options for the distance of cargo transportation and four classes of cargo. Practical value. The proposed methodical approach to risk modeling when working out a plan for developing a road transport cargo enterprise takes into account the probable change in demand for freight transportation, which gives the enterprise the opportunity to quickly respond to changes in market conditions and successfully plan activities in conditions of incomplete certainty, lack of information and the presence of risk.https://dspace.khadi.kharkov.ua/dspace/handle/123456789/8593risk modelingroad transport cargo enterprisesdevelopment planoptimal riskmarket demand. |
| spellingShingle | Shevchenko Inna Dmytriiev Illia Dmytriieva Oksana Risk modeling in working out the plan of developing the road transport cargo enterprise Avtomobilʹnyj Transport (Harʹkov) risk modeling road transport cargo enterprises development plan optimal risk market demand. |
| title | Risk modeling in working out the plan of developing the road transport cargo enterprise |
| title_full | Risk modeling in working out the plan of developing the road transport cargo enterprise |
| title_fullStr | Risk modeling in working out the plan of developing the road transport cargo enterprise |
| title_full_unstemmed | Risk modeling in working out the plan of developing the road transport cargo enterprise |
| title_short | Risk modeling in working out the plan of developing the road transport cargo enterprise |
| title_sort | risk modeling in working out the plan of developing the road transport cargo enterprise |
| topic | risk modeling road transport cargo enterprises development plan optimal risk market demand. |
| url | https://dspace.khadi.kharkov.ua/dspace/handle/123456789/8593 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT shevchenkoinna riskmodelinginworkingouttheplanofdevelopingtheroadtransportcargoenterprise AT dmytriievillia riskmodelinginworkingouttheplanofdevelopingtheroadtransportcargoenterprise AT dmytriievaoksana riskmodelinginworkingouttheplanofdevelopingtheroadtransportcargoenterprise |