Current and Potential Future Global Distribution of the Raisin Moth <em>Cadra figulilella</em> (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) under Two Different Climate Change Scenarios
Global trade facilitates the introduction of invasive species that can cause irreversible damage to agriculture and the environment, as well as stored food products. The raisin moth (<i>Cadra figulilella</i>) is an invasive pest that poses a significant threat to fruits and dried foods....
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MDPI AG
2023-03-01
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| Series: | Biology |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2079-7737/12/3/435 |
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| author | Bing-Xin Wang Liang Zhu Gang Ma Adriana Najar-Rodriguez Jin-Ping Zhang Feng Zhang Gonzalo A. Avila Chun-Sen Ma |
| author_facet | Bing-Xin Wang Liang Zhu Gang Ma Adriana Najar-Rodriguez Jin-Ping Zhang Feng Zhang Gonzalo A. Avila Chun-Sen Ma |
| author_sort | Bing-Xin Wang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Global trade facilitates the introduction of invasive species that can cause irreversible damage to agriculture and the environment, as well as stored food products. The raisin moth (<i>Cadra figulilella</i>) is an invasive pest that poses a significant threat to fruits and dried foods. Climate change may exacerbate this threat by expanding moth’s distribution to new areas. In this study, we used CLIMEX and MaxEnt niche modeling tools to assess the potential global distribution of the raisin moth under current and future climate change scenarios. Our models projected that the area of suitable distribution for the raisin moth could increase by up to 36.37% by the end of this century under high emission scenario. We also found that excessive precipitation decreased the probability of raisin moth establishment and that the optimum temperature range for the species during the wettest quarter of the year was 0–18 °C. These findings highlight the need for future research to utilize a combined modeling approach to predict the distribution of the raisin moth under current and future climate conditions more accurately. Our results could be used for environmental risk assessments, as well as to inform international trade decisions and negotiations on phytosanitary measures with regards to this invasive species. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T06:54:37Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-8287877a0dc54e708aba811fa616bf72 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2079-7737 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T06:54:37Z |
| publishDate | 2023-03-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Biology |
| spelling | doaj.art-8287877a0dc54e708aba811fa616bf722023-11-17T09:42:10ZengMDPI AGBiology2079-77372023-03-0112343510.3390/biology12030435Current and Potential Future Global Distribution of the Raisin Moth <em>Cadra figulilella</em> (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) under Two Different Climate Change ScenariosBing-Xin Wang0Liang Zhu1Gang Ma2Adriana Najar-Rodriguez3Jin-Ping Zhang4Feng Zhang5Gonzalo A. Avila6Chun-Sen Ma7School of Life Science, Institutes of Life Science and Green Development, Hebei University, Baoding 071002, ChinaClimate Change Biology Research Group, State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100193, ChinaClimate Change Biology Research Group, State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100193, ChinaThe New Zealand Institute for Plant and Food Research, Canterbury Agriculture and Science Center, Lincoln 7608, New ZealandCABI East & South-East Asia, 12 Zhonggunancun Nandajie, Beijing 100081, ChinaCABI East & South-East Asia, 12 Zhonggunancun Nandajie, Beijing 100081, ChinaThe New Zealand Institute for Plant and Food Research Limited, Auckland Mail Centre, Private Bag 92169, Auckland 1025, New ZealandSchool of Life Science, Institutes of Life Science and Green Development, Hebei University, Baoding 071002, ChinaGlobal trade facilitates the introduction of invasive species that can cause irreversible damage to agriculture and the environment, as well as stored food products. The raisin moth (<i>Cadra figulilella</i>) is an invasive pest that poses a significant threat to fruits and dried foods. Climate change may exacerbate this threat by expanding moth’s distribution to new areas. In this study, we used CLIMEX and MaxEnt niche modeling tools to assess the potential global distribution of the raisin moth under current and future climate change scenarios. Our models projected that the area of suitable distribution for the raisin moth could increase by up to 36.37% by the end of this century under high emission scenario. We also found that excessive precipitation decreased the probability of raisin moth establishment and that the optimum temperature range for the species during the wettest quarter of the year was 0–18 °C. These findings highlight the need for future research to utilize a combined modeling approach to predict the distribution of the raisin moth under current and future climate conditions more accurately. Our results could be used for environmental risk assessments, as well as to inform international trade decisions and negotiations on phytosanitary measures with regards to this invasive species.https://www.mdpi.com/2079-7737/12/3/435species distribution modelsuitability analysisCLIMEXMaxEntbioclimatic modeling |
| spellingShingle | Bing-Xin Wang Liang Zhu Gang Ma Adriana Najar-Rodriguez Jin-Ping Zhang Feng Zhang Gonzalo A. Avila Chun-Sen Ma Current and Potential Future Global Distribution of the Raisin Moth <em>Cadra figulilella</em> (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) under Two Different Climate Change Scenarios Biology species distribution model suitability analysis CLIMEX MaxEnt bioclimatic modeling |
| title | Current and Potential Future Global Distribution of the Raisin Moth <em>Cadra figulilella</em> (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) under Two Different Climate Change Scenarios |
| title_full | Current and Potential Future Global Distribution of the Raisin Moth <em>Cadra figulilella</em> (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) under Two Different Climate Change Scenarios |
| title_fullStr | Current and Potential Future Global Distribution of the Raisin Moth <em>Cadra figulilella</em> (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) under Two Different Climate Change Scenarios |
| title_full_unstemmed | Current and Potential Future Global Distribution of the Raisin Moth <em>Cadra figulilella</em> (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) under Two Different Climate Change Scenarios |
| title_short | Current and Potential Future Global Distribution of the Raisin Moth <em>Cadra figulilella</em> (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) under Two Different Climate Change Scenarios |
| title_sort | current and potential future global distribution of the raisin moth em cadra figulilella em lepidoptera pyralidae under two different climate change scenarios |
| topic | species distribution model suitability analysis CLIMEX MaxEnt bioclimatic modeling |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2079-7737/12/3/435 |
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