Future Extreme Precipitation in Summer Will Become More Widespread in China Depending on Level of Warming
Abstract In this study, CMIP6 and single model initial‐condition large ensemble (SMILE) simulations were applied to reveal possible changes in the spatial coverage (RSC) of summer extreme precipitation (≥99th percentile) in China. Four different approaches were applied to provide a comprehensive ass...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2023-11-01
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| Series: | Earth's Future |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF003413 |
| _version_ | 1797351702020489216 |
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| author | R. Yu P. M. Zhai W. Li |
| author_facet | R. Yu P. M. Zhai W. Li |
| author_sort | R. Yu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract In this study, CMIP6 and single model initial‐condition large ensemble (SMILE) simulations were applied to reveal possible changes in the spatial coverage (RSC) of summer extreme precipitation (≥99th percentile) in China. Four different approaches were applied to provide a comprehensive assessment of RSC changes. Results indicate that the trend of RSC in summer for the period 1961–2020 in China is underestimated by raw simulations of CMIP6 multi‐model ensembles. Further analyses suggest that the confidence in model simulations reflecting the observed change can be improved based on the two observation constraint approaches and SMILE‐based approach. In addition, the reliability of the spatial distribution can also be improved. Projection results indicate that the RSC of summer extreme precipitation increases consistently with the increment of global warming across the different approaches. Among them, the results based on observational constraints and the SMILE‐based approach show enhanced reliability and present larger RSC changes than by directly using CMIP6 ensembles. In conclusion, extreme precipitation in summer is expected to become more widespread in China as the level of global warming increases. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T13:04:20Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-82989eef9f7b4917ba1d2d32cafa1b18 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2328-4277 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T13:04:20Z |
| publishDate | 2023-11-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth's Future |
| spelling | doaj.art-82989eef9f7b4917ba1d2d32cafa1b182024-01-18T22:26:39ZengWileyEarth's Future2328-42772023-11-011111n/an/a10.1029/2022EF003413Future Extreme Precipitation in Summer Will Become More Widespread in China Depending on Level of WarmingR. Yu0P. M. Zhai1W. Li2State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing ChinaState Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing ChinaKey Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing ChinaAbstract In this study, CMIP6 and single model initial‐condition large ensemble (SMILE) simulations were applied to reveal possible changes in the spatial coverage (RSC) of summer extreme precipitation (≥99th percentile) in China. Four different approaches were applied to provide a comprehensive assessment of RSC changes. Results indicate that the trend of RSC in summer for the period 1961–2020 in China is underestimated by raw simulations of CMIP6 multi‐model ensembles. Further analyses suggest that the confidence in model simulations reflecting the observed change can be improved based on the two observation constraint approaches and SMILE‐based approach. In addition, the reliability of the spatial distribution can also be improved. Projection results indicate that the RSC of summer extreme precipitation increases consistently with the increment of global warming across the different approaches. Among them, the results based on observational constraints and the SMILE‐based approach show enhanced reliability and present larger RSC changes than by directly using CMIP6 ensembles. In conclusion, extreme precipitation in summer is expected to become more widespread in China as the level of global warming increases.https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF003413Chinaprojectionextreme precipitationspatial coverage |
| spellingShingle | R. Yu P. M. Zhai W. Li Future Extreme Precipitation in Summer Will Become More Widespread in China Depending on Level of Warming Earth's Future China projection extreme precipitation spatial coverage |
| title | Future Extreme Precipitation in Summer Will Become More Widespread in China Depending on Level of Warming |
| title_full | Future Extreme Precipitation in Summer Will Become More Widespread in China Depending on Level of Warming |
| title_fullStr | Future Extreme Precipitation in Summer Will Become More Widespread in China Depending on Level of Warming |
| title_full_unstemmed | Future Extreme Precipitation in Summer Will Become More Widespread in China Depending on Level of Warming |
| title_short | Future Extreme Precipitation in Summer Will Become More Widespread in China Depending on Level of Warming |
| title_sort | future extreme precipitation in summer will become more widespread in china depending on level of warming |
| topic | China projection extreme precipitation spatial coverage |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF003413 |
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