Increasing NH<sub>3</sub> Emissions in High Emission Seasons and Its Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics during 1850–2060
Ammonia (NH<sub>3</sub>) is a crucial alkaline component in the atmosphere, with significant impacts on environmental and ecosystem health. However, our understanding of the long-term variability characteristics of NH<sub>3</sub> emissions is still limited due to the scarcity...
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MDPI AG
2023-06-01
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| Series: | Atmosphere |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/14/7/1056 |
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| author | Tong Li Zhaosheng Wang |
| author_facet | Tong Li Zhaosheng Wang |
| author_sort | Tong Li |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Ammonia (NH<sub>3</sub>) is a crucial alkaline component in the atmosphere, with significant impacts on environmental and ecosystem health. However, our understanding of the long-term variability characteristics of NH<sub>3</sub> emissions is still limited due to the scarcity of long-term continuous NH<sub>3</sub> emission observation data. In this study, we investigated the global NH<sub>3</sub> emission evolution pattern during the high-emission season (March–August) in historical (1850–2014) and future (2015–2060) periods, based on the simulated global NH<sub>3</sub> emission and temperature data using the CESM2-WACCM model from CMIP6. We utilized cluster analysis, KNN regression simulation, and transfer matrix analysis to explore the emission characteristics. In the historical period, the analysis revealed that the high NH<sub>3</sub> emission season is March–August, accounting for about 60% of annual emissions, with a significant increasing trend of NH<sub>3</sub> emissions. The global average NH<sub>3</sub> emissions in the last 164 years were about four times higher (28.06 mg m<sup>−2</sup>) than those in 1850 (5.52 mg m<sup>−2</sup>). Moreover, on the intercontinental scale, NH<sub>3</sub> emissions from 1850 to 2014 March–August exhibited dynamic increases characterized differently across continents. Europe showed an increasing and then decreasing trend, Asia demonstrated a rapid increase, while South America, North America, and Africa exhibited medium increases, and Australia showed low increases. The global NH<sub>3</sub> emissions experienced three distinct periods of low (1850–1964, slope = 0.059 mg m<sup>−2</sup> y<sup>−1</sup>), high (1965–1988, slope = 0.389 mg m<sup>−2</sup> y<sup>−1</sup>), and medium (1989–2014, slope = 0.180 mg m<sup>−2</sup> y<sup>−1</sup>) rates of increase. Starting from the high rate of increase period, the hotspots of global NH<sub>3</sub> emissions gradually shifted from Europe to East and South Asia. Looking ahead, our findings suggest that the global NH<sub>3</sub> emission rate will tend to slow down under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 warming scenarios. However, compared with the medium-rate increasing period, the moderate and heavy NH<sub>3</sub> emission areas under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios will show a tendency to expand by 2060, with the proportion of area covered by heavy emissions increasing by 0.55% and 0.56%, respectively. In conclusion, our study highlights that NH<sub>3</sub> pollution remains a significant environmental challenge in the future period, with Asia and Europe being the key areas requiring attention for NH<sub>3</sub> emission reduction. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T01:19:38Z |
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| language | English |
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| spelling | doaj.art-82c73237d9814048b096aabb7aacf7fe2023-11-18T18:14:51ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332023-06-01147105610.3390/atmos14071056Increasing NH<sub>3</sub> Emissions in High Emission Seasons and Its Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics during 1850–2060Tong Li0Zhaosheng Wang1Institute of Geographic Science and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, ChinaInstitute of Geographic Science and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, ChinaAmmonia (NH<sub>3</sub>) is a crucial alkaline component in the atmosphere, with significant impacts on environmental and ecosystem health. However, our understanding of the long-term variability characteristics of NH<sub>3</sub> emissions is still limited due to the scarcity of long-term continuous NH<sub>3</sub> emission observation data. In this study, we investigated the global NH<sub>3</sub> emission evolution pattern during the high-emission season (March–August) in historical (1850–2014) and future (2015–2060) periods, based on the simulated global NH<sub>3</sub> emission and temperature data using the CESM2-WACCM model from CMIP6. We utilized cluster analysis, KNN regression simulation, and transfer matrix analysis to explore the emission characteristics. In the historical period, the analysis revealed that the high NH<sub>3</sub> emission season is March–August, accounting for about 60% of annual emissions, with a significant increasing trend of NH<sub>3</sub> emissions. The global average NH<sub>3</sub> emissions in the last 164 years were about four times higher (28.06 mg m<sup>−2</sup>) than those in 1850 (5.52 mg m<sup>−2</sup>). Moreover, on the intercontinental scale, NH<sub>3</sub> emissions from 1850 to 2014 March–August exhibited dynamic increases characterized differently across continents. Europe showed an increasing and then decreasing trend, Asia demonstrated a rapid increase, while South America, North America, and Africa exhibited medium increases, and Australia showed low increases. The global NH<sub>3</sub> emissions experienced three distinct periods of low (1850–1964, slope = 0.059 mg m<sup>−2</sup> y<sup>−1</sup>), high (1965–1988, slope = 0.389 mg m<sup>−2</sup> y<sup>−1</sup>), and medium (1989–2014, slope = 0.180 mg m<sup>−2</sup> y<sup>−1</sup>) rates of increase. Starting from the high rate of increase period, the hotspots of global NH<sub>3</sub> emissions gradually shifted from Europe to East and South Asia. Looking ahead, our findings suggest that the global NH<sub>3</sub> emission rate will tend to slow down under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 warming scenarios. However, compared with the medium-rate increasing period, the moderate and heavy NH<sub>3</sub> emission areas under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios will show a tendency to expand by 2060, with the proportion of area covered by heavy emissions increasing by 0.55% and 0.56%, respectively. In conclusion, our study highlights that NH<sub>3</sub> pollution remains a significant environmental challenge in the future period, with Asia and Europe being the key areas requiring attention for NH<sub>3</sub> emission reduction.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/14/7/1056ammonia (NH<sub>3</sub>) emissionsspatial and temporal variabilityscenario analysislong-term trends |
| spellingShingle | Tong Li Zhaosheng Wang Increasing NH<sub>3</sub> Emissions in High Emission Seasons and Its Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics during 1850–2060 Atmosphere ammonia (NH<sub>3</sub>) emissions spatial and temporal variability scenario analysis long-term trends |
| title | Increasing NH<sub>3</sub> Emissions in High Emission Seasons and Its Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics during 1850–2060 |
| title_full | Increasing NH<sub>3</sub> Emissions in High Emission Seasons and Its Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics during 1850–2060 |
| title_fullStr | Increasing NH<sub>3</sub> Emissions in High Emission Seasons and Its Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics during 1850–2060 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Increasing NH<sub>3</sub> Emissions in High Emission Seasons and Its Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics during 1850–2060 |
| title_short | Increasing NH<sub>3</sub> Emissions in High Emission Seasons and Its Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics during 1850–2060 |
| title_sort | increasing nh sub 3 sub emissions in high emission seasons and its spatiotemporal evolution characteristics during 1850 2060 |
| topic | ammonia (NH<sub>3</sub>) emissions spatial and temporal variability scenario analysis long-term trends |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/14/7/1056 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT tongli increasingnhsub3subemissionsinhighemissionseasonsanditsspatiotemporalevolutioncharacteristicsduring18502060 AT zhaoshengwang increasingnhsub3subemissionsinhighemissionseasonsanditsspatiotemporalevolutioncharacteristicsduring18502060 |