Statlig energiprognosverksamhet
This essay deals with long-term governmental energy forecasting in Sweden, meant to serve as a basis for political decision-making on a national level. The background is that the energy crisis in the 1970’s resulted in erroneous forecasts and that the forecasting-activity as such was being question...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | Danish |
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Lärdomshistoriska samfundet
2006-01-01
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| Series: | Lychnos |
| Online Access: | https://tidskriftenlychnos.se/article/view/21321 |
| _version_ | 1797791042702934016 |
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| author | Elin Vinger |
| author_facet | Elin Vinger |
| author_sort | Elin Vinger |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description |
This essay deals with long-term governmental energy forecasting in Sweden, meant to serve as a basis for political decision-making on a national level. The background is that the energy crisis in the 1970’s resulted in erroneous forecasts and that the forecasting-activity as such was being questioned. The forecasting-society had not been equipped well enough to successfully face the challenges that the crisis brought along. This resulted in other ways – and other methods – to approach the future. It also resulted in the value of long-term forecasts being discussed, with the conclusion that what motivates their existence is that they provide a possibility to disregard the momentum of the energy system.
This study shows that the characteristics of the long-term forecasts did not change in a significant way even though being questioned. The characteristics have stayed the same due to requests from both policy-makers and forecasters of consistent results obtained according to a certain scientific tradition. The aim is to obtain reliable results, although such cannot possibly be established in a long-term perspective, as the future always remains full of surprises.
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| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T02:13:09Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-8323218d4c4b4e8ca36633ac34df8784 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 0076-1648 2004-4852 |
| language | Danish |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T02:13:09Z |
| publishDate | 2006-01-01 |
| publisher | Lärdomshistoriska samfundet |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Lychnos |
| spelling | doaj.art-8323218d4c4b4e8ca36633ac34df87842023-06-30T19:34:33ZdanLärdomshistoriska samfundetLychnos0076-16482004-48522006-01-01Statlig energiprognosverksamhetElin Vinger0Institutet för tillväxtpolitiska studier, Östersund This essay deals with long-term governmental energy forecasting in Sweden, meant to serve as a basis for political decision-making on a national level. The background is that the energy crisis in the 1970’s resulted in erroneous forecasts and that the forecasting-activity as such was being questioned. The forecasting-society had not been equipped well enough to successfully face the challenges that the crisis brought along. This resulted in other ways – and other methods – to approach the future. It also resulted in the value of long-term forecasts being discussed, with the conclusion that what motivates their existence is that they provide a possibility to disregard the momentum of the energy system. This study shows that the characteristics of the long-term forecasts did not change in a significant way even though being questioned. The characteristics have stayed the same due to requests from both policy-makers and forecasters of consistent results obtained according to a certain scientific tradition. The aim is to obtain reliable results, although such cannot possibly be established in a long-term perspective, as the future always remains full of surprises. https://tidskriftenlychnos.se/article/view/21321 |
| spellingShingle | Elin Vinger Statlig energiprognosverksamhet Lychnos |
| title | Statlig energiprognosverksamhet |
| title_full | Statlig energiprognosverksamhet |
| title_fullStr | Statlig energiprognosverksamhet |
| title_full_unstemmed | Statlig energiprognosverksamhet |
| title_short | Statlig energiprognosverksamhet |
| title_sort | statlig energiprognosverksamhet |
| url | https://tidskriftenlychnos.se/article/view/21321 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT elinvinger statligenergiprognosverksamhet |