Investigation of the trend and cycles using the long-term records of annual precipitation in Shandong, China
The length of historical records is important for analyzing trends and multidecadal variabilities in precipitation. Conventional studies usually used historical precipitation data less than 60 years, which may cause inaccurate precipitation predictions. To better understand the effects of the study...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IWA Publishing
2022-11-01
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| Series: | Journal of Water and Climate Change |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://jwcc.iwaponline.com/content/13/11/3761 |
| _version_ | 1811185989525176320 |
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| author | Shengle Cao Xinying Li Ruifeng You Yijiao Diao Jun Wang Yang Liu |
| author_facet | Shengle Cao Xinying Li Ruifeng You Yijiao Diao Jun Wang Yang Liu |
| author_sort | Shengle Cao |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The length of historical records is important for analyzing trends and multidecadal variabilities in precipitation. Conventional studies usually used historical precipitation data less than 60 years, which may cause inaccurate precipitation predictions. To better understand the effects of the study period on precipitation trends and cycles, the Mann–Kendall test and Sen's slope test were applied to analyze the trend and wavelet, while the multi-temporal analysis was used to study the cycles of long historical precipitation data at four rain gauge stations in Shandong Province, China. The analysis results using long-term records show an insignificant upward trend and a longer cycle in the annual precipitation, whereas a downward trend is found when using short-term records. Furthermore, it is found that selecting the length of the representative cycle derived from the precipitation data series as the time scale for the study proved to be more reasonable. A thorough consideration of the impact of cycles on trends should, therefore, be taken to facilitate a more accurate precipitation trend analysis.
HIGHLIGHTS
The four representative rain stations in Shandong Province show an insignificant upward trend based on long-term records.;
The length of the precipitation records affects the analysis results of the trend and cycle.;
The representative cycle is the optimal period for the trend analysis of precipitation.;
Different analysis periods (different initial years) with the same data length affect the trend analysis of precipitation.; |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T13:38:51Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-832c8cdedba74cf1a11e362549f280ba |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2040-2244 2408-9354 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T13:38:51Z |
| publishDate | 2022-11-01 |
| publisher | IWA Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Water and Climate Change |
| spelling | doaj.art-832c8cdedba74cf1a11e362549f280ba2022-12-22T04:21:21ZengIWA PublishingJournal of Water and Climate Change2040-22442408-93542022-11-0113113761377510.2166/wcc.2022.128128Investigation of the trend and cycles using the long-term records of annual precipitation in Shandong, ChinaShengle Cao0Xinying Li1Ruifeng You2Yijiao Diao3Jun Wang4Yang Liu5 School of Civil Engineering, Shandong University, No. 17922, Jingshi Road, Jinan City, Shandong Province 250061, China School of Civil Engineering, Shandong University, No. 17922, Jingshi Road, Jinan City, Shandong Province 250061, China School of Civil Engineering, Shandong University, No. 17922, Jingshi Road, Jinan City, Shandong Province 250061, China School of Civil Engineering, Shandong University, No. 17922, Jingshi Road, Jinan City, Shandong Province 250061, China School of Civil Engineering, Shandong University, No. 17922, Jingshi Road, Jinan City, Shandong Province 250061, China School of Civil Engineering, Shandong University, No. 17922, Jingshi Road, Jinan City, Shandong Province 250061, China The length of historical records is important for analyzing trends and multidecadal variabilities in precipitation. Conventional studies usually used historical precipitation data less than 60 years, which may cause inaccurate precipitation predictions. To better understand the effects of the study period on precipitation trends and cycles, the Mann–Kendall test and Sen's slope test were applied to analyze the trend and wavelet, while the multi-temporal analysis was used to study the cycles of long historical precipitation data at four rain gauge stations in Shandong Province, China. The analysis results using long-term records show an insignificant upward trend and a longer cycle in the annual precipitation, whereas a downward trend is found when using short-term records. Furthermore, it is found that selecting the length of the representative cycle derived from the precipitation data series as the time scale for the study proved to be more reasonable. A thorough consideration of the impact of cycles on trends should, therefore, be taken to facilitate a more accurate precipitation trend analysis. HIGHLIGHTS The four representative rain stations in Shandong Province show an insignificant upward trend based on long-term records.; The length of the precipitation records affects the analysis results of the trend and cycle.; The representative cycle is the optimal period for the trend analysis of precipitation.; Different analysis periods (different initial years) with the same data length affect the trend analysis of precipitation.;http://jwcc.iwaponline.com/content/13/11/3761annual precipitationlong-term recordsshandong provincetrend and cycle |
| spellingShingle | Shengle Cao Xinying Li Ruifeng You Yijiao Diao Jun Wang Yang Liu Investigation of the trend and cycles using the long-term records of annual precipitation in Shandong, China Journal of Water and Climate Change annual precipitation long-term records shandong province trend and cycle |
| title | Investigation of the trend and cycles using the long-term records of annual precipitation in Shandong, China |
| title_full | Investigation of the trend and cycles using the long-term records of annual precipitation in Shandong, China |
| title_fullStr | Investigation of the trend and cycles using the long-term records of annual precipitation in Shandong, China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Investigation of the trend and cycles using the long-term records of annual precipitation in Shandong, China |
| title_short | Investigation of the trend and cycles using the long-term records of annual precipitation in Shandong, China |
| title_sort | investigation of the trend and cycles using the long term records of annual precipitation in shandong china |
| topic | annual precipitation long-term records shandong province trend and cycle |
| url | http://jwcc.iwaponline.com/content/13/11/3761 |
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