The European climate under a 2 °C global warming
A global warming of 2 °C relative to pre-industrial climate has been considered as a threshold which society should endeavor to remain below, in order to limit the dangerous effects of anthropogenic climate change. The possible changes in regional climate under this target level of global warming ha...
| প্রধান লেখক: | , , , , , , , , , , |
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| বিন্যাস: | প্রবন্ধ |
| ভাষা: | English |
| প্রকাশিত: |
IOP Publishing
2014-01-01
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| মালা: | Environmental Research Letters |
| বিষয়গুলি: | |
| অনলাইন ব্যবহার করুন: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/034006 |
| _version_ | 1827870612166541312 |
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| author | Robert Vautard Andreas Gobiet Stefan Sobolowski Erik Kjellström Annemiek Stegehuis Paul Watkiss Thomas Mendlik Oskar Landgren Grigory Nikulin Claas Teichmann Daniela Jacob |
| author_facet | Robert Vautard Andreas Gobiet Stefan Sobolowski Erik Kjellström Annemiek Stegehuis Paul Watkiss Thomas Mendlik Oskar Landgren Grigory Nikulin Claas Teichmann Daniela Jacob |
| author_sort | Robert Vautard |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | A global warming of 2 °C relative to pre-industrial climate has been considered as a threshold which society should endeavor to remain below, in order to limit the dangerous effects of anthropogenic climate change. The possible changes in regional climate under this target level of global warming have so far not been investigated in detail. Using an ensemble of 15 regional climate simulations downscaling six transient global climate simulations, we identify the respective time periods corresponding to 2 °C global warming, describe the range of projected changes for the European climate for this level of global warming, and investigate the uncertainty across the multi-model ensemble. Robust changes in mean and extreme temperature, precipitation, winds and surface energy budgets are found based on the ensemble of simulations. The results indicate that most of Europe will experience higher warming than the global average. They also reveal strong distributional patterns across Europe, which will be important in subsequent impact assessments and adaptation responses in different countries and regions. For instance, a North–South (West–East) warming gradient is found for summer (winter) along with a general increase in heavy precipitation and summer extreme temperatures. Tying the ensemble analysis to time periods with a prescribed global temperature change rather than fixed time periods allows for the identification of more robust regional patterns of temperature changes due to removal of some of the uncertainty related to the global models’ climate sensitivity. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:58:43Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-83573541ad544aed97e715de7d736a91 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:58:43Z |
| publishDate | 2014-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-83573541ad544aed97e715de7d736a912023-08-09T14:43:47ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262014-01-019303400610.1088/1748-9326/9/3/034006The European climate under a 2 °C global warmingRobert Vautard0Andreas Gobiet1Stefan Sobolowski2Erik Kjellström3Annemiek Stegehuis4Paul Watkiss5Thomas Mendlik6Oskar Landgren7Grigory Nikulin8Claas Teichmann9Daniela Jacob10Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (CEA/CNRS/UVSQ), Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace , Orme des Merisiers, Gif sur Yvette, FranceWegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz , AustriaUni Research, Bjerknes Center for Climate Research , Bergen, NorwaySwedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute , Norrköping, SwedenLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (CEA/CNRS/UVSQ), Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace , Orme des Merisiers, Gif sur Yvette, FrancePaul Watkiss Associates , Oxford, UKWegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz , AustriaNorwegian Meteorological Institute , Oslo, NorwaySwedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute , Norrköping, SwedenClimate Service Center (CSC) , Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Fischertwiete 1, D-20095 Hamburg, Germany; Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPIM) , Bundesstr. 53, D-20146 Hamburg, GermanyClimate Service Center (CSC) , Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Fischertwiete 1, D-20095 Hamburg, GermanyA global warming of 2 °C relative to pre-industrial climate has been considered as a threshold which society should endeavor to remain below, in order to limit the dangerous effects of anthropogenic climate change. The possible changes in regional climate under this target level of global warming have so far not been investigated in detail. Using an ensemble of 15 regional climate simulations downscaling six transient global climate simulations, we identify the respective time periods corresponding to 2 °C global warming, describe the range of projected changes for the European climate for this level of global warming, and investigate the uncertainty across the multi-model ensemble. Robust changes in mean and extreme temperature, precipitation, winds and surface energy budgets are found based on the ensemble of simulations. The results indicate that most of Europe will experience higher warming than the global average. They also reveal strong distributional patterns across Europe, which will be important in subsequent impact assessments and adaptation responses in different countries and regions. For instance, a North–South (West–East) warming gradient is found for summer (winter) along with a general increase in heavy precipitation and summer extreme temperatures. Tying the ensemble analysis to time periods with a prescribed global temperature change rather than fixed time periods allows for the identification of more robust regional patterns of temperature changes due to removal of some of the uncertainty related to the global models’ climate sensitivity.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/034006regional climate changeextreme eventsEuropean climate |
| spellingShingle | Robert Vautard Andreas Gobiet Stefan Sobolowski Erik Kjellström Annemiek Stegehuis Paul Watkiss Thomas Mendlik Oskar Landgren Grigory Nikulin Claas Teichmann Daniela Jacob The European climate under a 2 °C global warming Environmental Research Letters regional climate change extreme events European climate |
| title | The European climate under a 2 °C global warming |
| title_full | The European climate under a 2 °C global warming |
| title_fullStr | The European climate under a 2 °C global warming |
| title_full_unstemmed | The European climate under a 2 °C global warming |
| title_short | The European climate under a 2 °C global warming |
| title_sort | european climate under a 2 °c global warming |
| topic | regional climate change extreme events European climate |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/034006 |
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