Global variation in early epidemic growth rates and reproduction number of seasonal influenza
Background: Little is known about global variation in early epidemic growth rates and effective reproduction numbers (Re) of seasonal influenza. We aimed to estimate global variation in Re of influenza type A and B during a single period. Methods: Country influenza detection time series from Septemb...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2022-09-01
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| Series: | International Journal of Infectious Diseases |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S120197122200354X |
| _version_ | 1828352922612662272 |
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| author | Rory Thompson James Gareth Wood Stefano Tempia David John Muscatello |
| author_facet | Rory Thompson James Gareth Wood Stefano Tempia David John Muscatello |
| author_sort | Rory Thompson |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background: Little is known about global variation in early epidemic growth rates and effective reproduction numbers (Re) of seasonal influenza. We aimed to estimate global variation in Re of influenza type A and B during a single period. Methods: Country influenza detection time series from September 2017 through January 2019 were obtained from an international database. Type A and B epidemics by country were selected on the basis of Re estimates for a five-week moving window, advanced by week. Associations of Re with absolute latitude, human development index, percent of the population aged <15 years, and percent of those living in rural areas in each country were assessed. Results: Time series were included for 119 of 169 available countries. There were 100 countries with influenza A and 79 with B epidemics. Median Re for both influenza A and B epidemics was 1.23 (ranges: A 1.10, 1.60; B 1.06, 1.58). Re of influenza B but not A was independently associated with absolute latitude, increasing by 0.022 (95% confidence interval 0.002, 0.043) per 10 degrees. Conclusion: The Re of influenza A and B were similar. Only the Re of influenza B was associated with country characteristics, which was increasing with distance from the equator. The approach may be suitable for continuous Re surveillance. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-14T02:01:41Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-836af8f3638941fcaa11d151775658a1 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1201-9712 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-14T02:01:41Z |
| publishDate | 2022-09-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | International Journal of Infectious Diseases |
| spelling | doaj.art-836af8f3638941fcaa11d151775658a12022-12-22T02:18:50ZengElsevierInternational Journal of Infectious Diseases1201-97122022-09-01122382388Global variation in early epidemic growth rates and reproduction number of seasonal influenzaRory Thompson0James Gareth Wood1Stefano Tempia2David John Muscatello3School of Population Health, University of New South Wales, AustraliaSchool of Population Health, University of New South Wales, AustraliaNational Institute for Communicable Diseases, South Africa; School of Population Health, University of New South Wales, AustraliaSchool of Population Health, University of New South Wales, Australia; Corresponding author: David Muscatello, School of Population Health, Botany St, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, AustraliaBackground: Little is known about global variation in early epidemic growth rates and effective reproduction numbers (Re) of seasonal influenza. We aimed to estimate global variation in Re of influenza type A and B during a single period. Methods: Country influenza detection time series from September 2017 through January 2019 were obtained from an international database. Type A and B epidemics by country were selected on the basis of Re estimates for a five-week moving window, advanced by week. Associations of Re with absolute latitude, human development index, percent of the population aged <15 years, and percent of those living in rural areas in each country were assessed. Results: Time series were included for 119 of 169 available countries. There were 100 countries with influenza A and 79 with B epidemics. Median Re for both influenza A and B epidemics was 1.23 (ranges: A 1.10, 1.60; B 1.06, 1.58). Re of influenza B but not A was independently associated with absolute latitude, increasing by 0.022 (95% confidence interval 0.002, 0.043) per 10 degrees. Conclusion: The Re of influenza A and B were similar. Only the Re of influenza B was associated with country characteristics, which was increasing with distance from the equator. The approach may be suitable for continuous Re surveillance.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S120197122200354XSeasonal influenzaEffective reproduction numberEpidemic dynamicsGeographic variationInfluenza type |
| spellingShingle | Rory Thompson James Gareth Wood Stefano Tempia David John Muscatello Global variation in early epidemic growth rates and reproduction number of seasonal influenza International Journal of Infectious Diseases Seasonal influenza Effective reproduction number Epidemic dynamics Geographic variation Influenza type |
| title | Global variation in early epidemic growth rates and reproduction number of seasonal influenza |
| title_full | Global variation in early epidemic growth rates and reproduction number of seasonal influenza |
| title_fullStr | Global variation in early epidemic growth rates and reproduction number of seasonal influenza |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global variation in early epidemic growth rates and reproduction number of seasonal influenza |
| title_short | Global variation in early epidemic growth rates and reproduction number of seasonal influenza |
| title_sort | global variation in early epidemic growth rates and reproduction number of seasonal influenza |
| topic | Seasonal influenza Effective reproduction number Epidemic dynamics Geographic variation Influenza type |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S120197122200354X |
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