A deterministic compartmental model for the transition between variants in the spread of Covid-19 in Italy.
We propose a deterministic epidemic model to describe the transition between two variants of the same virus, through the combination of a series of realistic mechanisms such as partial cross immunity, waning immunity for vaccinated individuals and a novel data-based algorithm to describe the average...
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2023-01-01
|
| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0293416&type=printable |
| _version_ | 1827587669829353472 |
|---|---|
| author | Mario Saviano Annalisa Fierro Antonella Liccardo |
| author_facet | Mario Saviano Annalisa Fierro Antonella Liccardo |
| author_sort | Mario Saviano |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | We propose a deterministic epidemic model to describe the transition between two variants of the same virus, through the combination of a series of realistic mechanisms such as partial cross immunity, waning immunity for vaccinated individuals and a novel data-based algorithm to describe the average immunological status of the population. The model is validated on the evolution of Covid-19 in Italy, during the period in which the transition between Delta and Omicron variant occurred, with very satisfactory agreement with the experimental data. According to our model, if the vaccine efficacy had been equal against Delta and Omicron variant infections, the transition would have been smoothed and the epidemic would have gone extinct. This circumstance confirms the fundamental role of vaccines in combating the epidemic, and the importance of identifying vaccines capable of intercepting new variants. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T00:21:23Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-837518b1214648a8ba223ed4364f4850 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T00:21:23Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj.art-837518b1214648a8ba223ed4364f48502023-12-12T05:34:27ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032023-01-011811e029341610.1371/journal.pone.0293416A deterministic compartmental model for the transition between variants in the spread of Covid-19 in Italy.Mario SavianoAnnalisa FierroAntonella LiccardoWe propose a deterministic epidemic model to describe the transition between two variants of the same virus, through the combination of a series of realistic mechanisms such as partial cross immunity, waning immunity for vaccinated individuals and a novel data-based algorithm to describe the average immunological status of the population. The model is validated on the evolution of Covid-19 in Italy, during the period in which the transition between Delta and Omicron variant occurred, with very satisfactory agreement with the experimental data. According to our model, if the vaccine efficacy had been equal against Delta and Omicron variant infections, the transition would have been smoothed and the epidemic would have gone extinct. This circumstance confirms the fundamental role of vaccines in combating the epidemic, and the importance of identifying vaccines capable of intercepting new variants.https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0293416&type=printable |
| spellingShingle | Mario Saviano Annalisa Fierro Antonella Liccardo A deterministic compartmental model for the transition between variants in the spread of Covid-19 in Italy. PLoS ONE |
| title | A deterministic compartmental model for the transition between variants in the spread of Covid-19 in Italy. |
| title_full | A deterministic compartmental model for the transition between variants in the spread of Covid-19 in Italy. |
| title_fullStr | A deterministic compartmental model for the transition between variants in the spread of Covid-19 in Italy. |
| title_full_unstemmed | A deterministic compartmental model for the transition between variants in the spread of Covid-19 in Italy. |
| title_short | A deterministic compartmental model for the transition between variants in the spread of Covid-19 in Italy. |
| title_sort | deterministic compartmental model for the transition between variants in the spread of covid 19 in italy |
| url | https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0293416&type=printable |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT mariosaviano adeterministiccompartmentalmodelforthetransitionbetweenvariantsinthespreadofcovid19initaly AT annalisafierro adeterministiccompartmentalmodelforthetransitionbetweenvariantsinthespreadofcovid19initaly AT antonellaliccardo adeterministiccompartmentalmodelforthetransitionbetweenvariantsinthespreadofcovid19initaly AT mariosaviano deterministiccompartmentalmodelforthetransitionbetweenvariantsinthespreadofcovid19initaly AT annalisafierro deterministiccompartmentalmodelforthetransitionbetweenvariantsinthespreadofcovid19initaly AT antonellaliccardo deterministiccompartmentalmodelforthetransitionbetweenvariantsinthespreadofcovid19initaly |