A stochastic multi-host model for West Nile virus transmission
When initially introduced into a susceptible population, a disease may die out or result in a major outbreak. We present a Continuous-Time Markov Chain model for enzootic WNV transmission between two avian host species and a single vector, and use multitype branching process theory to determine the...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Taylor & Francis Group
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Journal of Biological Dynamics |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/17513758.2023.2293780 |
| _version_ | 1797373817511739392 |
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| author | Emily B. Horton Suzanne L. Robertson |
| author_facet | Emily B. Horton Suzanne L. Robertson |
| author_sort | Emily B. Horton |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | When initially introduced into a susceptible population, a disease may die out or result in a major outbreak. We present a Continuous-Time Markov Chain model for enzootic WNV transmission between two avian host species and a single vector, and use multitype branching process theory to determine the probability of disease extinction based upon the type of infected individual initially introducing the disease into the population – an exposed vector, infectious vector, or infectious host of either species. We explore how the likelihood of disease extinction depends on the ability of each host species to transmit WNV, vector biting rates on host species, and the relative abundance of host species, as well as vector abundance. Theoretical predictions are compared to the outcome of stochastic simulations. We find the community composition of hosts and vectors, as well as the means of disease introduction, can greatly affect the probability of disease extinction. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T18:54:59Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-83a4e09b40eb4096b01c3ba9b6b9bf3b |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1751-3758 1751-3766 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T18:54:59Z |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Taylor & Francis Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Biological Dynamics |
| spelling | doaj.art-83a4e09b40eb4096b01c3ba9b6b9bf3b2023-12-28T13:33:13ZengTaylor & Francis GroupJournal of Biological Dynamics1751-37581751-37662024-12-0118110.1080/17513758.2023.2293780A stochastic multi-host model for West Nile virus transmissionEmily B. Horton0Suzanne L. Robertson1SYSM PhD Program, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA, USADepartment of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA, USAWhen initially introduced into a susceptible population, a disease may die out or result in a major outbreak. We present a Continuous-Time Markov Chain model for enzootic WNV transmission between two avian host species and a single vector, and use multitype branching process theory to determine the probability of disease extinction based upon the type of infected individual initially introducing the disease into the population – an exposed vector, infectious vector, or infectious host of either species. We explore how the likelihood of disease extinction depends on the ability of each host species to transmit WNV, vector biting rates on host species, and the relative abundance of host species, as well as vector abundance. Theoretical predictions are compared to the outcome of stochastic simulations. We find the community composition of hosts and vectors, as well as the means of disease introduction, can greatly affect the probability of disease extinction.https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/17513758.2023.2293780West Nile viruscontinuous-time Markov chainmultitype branching processprobability of disease extinctionhost heterogeneity60J80 |
| spellingShingle | Emily B. Horton Suzanne L. Robertson A stochastic multi-host model for West Nile virus transmission Journal of Biological Dynamics West Nile virus continuous-time Markov chain multitype branching process probability of disease extinction host heterogeneity 60J80 |
| title | A stochastic multi-host model for West Nile virus transmission |
| title_full | A stochastic multi-host model for West Nile virus transmission |
| title_fullStr | A stochastic multi-host model for West Nile virus transmission |
| title_full_unstemmed | A stochastic multi-host model for West Nile virus transmission |
| title_short | A stochastic multi-host model for West Nile virus transmission |
| title_sort | stochastic multi host model for west nile virus transmission |
| topic | West Nile virus continuous-time Markov chain multitype branching process probability of disease extinction host heterogeneity 60J80 |
| url | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/17513758.2023.2293780 |
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