Assessment of CMIP6 models’ performances and projection of precipitation based on SSP scenarios over the MENAP region
Precipitation is the main component of the hydrological cycle. It has a significant effect on the ecosystem especially, irrigation and drainage system design and management, crop production, and flood and drought management. In this study, 11 global circulation models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Inter...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IWA Publishing
2022-10-01
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| Series: | Journal of Water and Climate Change |
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| Online Access: | http://jwcc.iwaponline.com/content/13/10/3607 |
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| author | Ebrahim Mesgari Seyed Asaad Hosseini Maliheh Sadat Hemmesy Mahmoud Houshyar Leila Golzari Partoo |
| author_facet | Ebrahim Mesgari Seyed Asaad Hosseini Maliheh Sadat Hemmesy Mahmoud Houshyar Leila Golzari Partoo |
| author_sort | Ebrahim Mesgari |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Precipitation is the main component of the hydrological cycle. It has a significant effect on the ecosystem especially, irrigation and drainage system design and management, crop production, and flood and drought management. In this study, 11 global circulation models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) were investigated under three shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios for precipitation simulation and projection in the future period (2021–2050). Then, the results were compared with the base period (1985–2014). The research was conducted in the MENAP region. The evaluation of GCMs’ performances by the Taylor diagram, R2, MSE, MAE, and RMSE indices showed that among the 11 models, the MPI-ESM1-2-HR model with an average R2 and RMSE of 0.6 and 18.9, respectively, was more accurate than other models in precipitation simulation in the entire region. The projection of precipitation indicated that the precipitation will mainly decrease except in areas such as the Black Sea, Mediterranean, and Red Sea coastal areas as well as mountainous and higher altitude regions in the eastern part of the study area. In addition, highest decrease rates will happen in the Middle East countries, Afghanistan, Morocco, Algeria, and Sudan. Based on different scenarios in the MENAP region, precipitation will vary between −77.3 and + 51.1 mm compared to the base period. Moreover, the lowest and highest precipitation changes were estimated based on SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. According to the various scenarios, the amount of precipitation in the future period will decrease compared to the historical period in most parts of the areas under study.
HIGHLIGHTS
Analysis of the 11 global circulation models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6).;
Using the three shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios.;
Study of 220 meteorological stations in the MENAP (Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan) region.;
Assessment of CMIP6 model's performance by the Taylor diagram, R2, MSE, RMSE, and MAE.;
Using the grid data of ERA5 and GCMs.; |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T00:00:49Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-83bafac31ea94074b759b2a0553f607d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2040-2244 2408-9354 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T00:00:49Z |
| publishDate | 2022-10-01 |
| publisher | IWA Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Water and Climate Change |
| spelling | doaj.art-83bafac31ea94074b759b2a0553f607d2022-12-22T03:56:14ZengIWA PublishingJournal of Water and Climate Change2040-22442408-93542022-10-0113103607361910.2166/wcc.2022.195195Assessment of CMIP6 models’ performances and projection of precipitation based on SSP scenarios over the MENAP regionEbrahim Mesgari0Seyed Asaad Hosseini1Maliheh Sadat Hemmesy2Mahmoud Houshyar3Leila Golzari Partoo4 Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Geography and Environmental Planning, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran Kurdistan Province Meteorological Office, Sanandaj, Iran Department of Physical Geography, University of Lorestan, Lorestan, Iran Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Payame Noor University, Mahabad, Iran Department of Climatology, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran Precipitation is the main component of the hydrological cycle. It has a significant effect on the ecosystem especially, irrigation and drainage system design and management, crop production, and flood and drought management. In this study, 11 global circulation models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) were investigated under three shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios for precipitation simulation and projection in the future period (2021–2050). Then, the results were compared with the base period (1985–2014). The research was conducted in the MENAP region. The evaluation of GCMs’ performances by the Taylor diagram, R2, MSE, MAE, and RMSE indices showed that among the 11 models, the MPI-ESM1-2-HR model with an average R2 and RMSE of 0.6 and 18.9, respectively, was more accurate than other models in precipitation simulation in the entire region. The projection of precipitation indicated that the precipitation will mainly decrease except in areas such as the Black Sea, Mediterranean, and Red Sea coastal areas as well as mountainous and higher altitude regions in the eastern part of the study area. In addition, highest decrease rates will happen in the Middle East countries, Afghanistan, Morocco, Algeria, and Sudan. Based on different scenarios in the MENAP region, precipitation will vary between −77.3 and + 51.1 mm compared to the base period. Moreover, the lowest and highest precipitation changes were estimated based on SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. According to the various scenarios, the amount of precipitation in the future period will decrease compared to the historical period in most parts of the areas under study. HIGHLIGHTS Analysis of the 11 global circulation models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6).; Using the three shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios.; Study of 220 meteorological stations in the MENAP (Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan) region.; Assessment of CMIP6 model's performance by the Taylor diagram, R2, MSE, RMSE, and MAE.; Using the grid data of ERA5 and GCMs.;http://jwcc.iwaponline.com/content/13/10/3607climate changecmip6menapprecipitationssps |
| spellingShingle | Ebrahim Mesgari Seyed Asaad Hosseini Maliheh Sadat Hemmesy Mahmoud Houshyar Leila Golzari Partoo Assessment of CMIP6 models’ performances and projection of precipitation based on SSP scenarios over the MENAP region Journal of Water and Climate Change climate change cmip6 menap precipitation ssps |
| title | Assessment of CMIP6 models’ performances and projection of precipitation based on SSP scenarios over the MENAP region |
| title_full | Assessment of CMIP6 models’ performances and projection of precipitation based on SSP scenarios over the MENAP region |
| title_fullStr | Assessment of CMIP6 models’ performances and projection of precipitation based on SSP scenarios over the MENAP region |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessment of CMIP6 models’ performances and projection of precipitation based on SSP scenarios over the MENAP region |
| title_short | Assessment of CMIP6 models’ performances and projection of precipitation based on SSP scenarios over the MENAP region |
| title_sort | assessment of cmip6 models performances and projection of precipitation based on ssp scenarios over the menap region |
| topic | climate change cmip6 menap precipitation ssps |
| url | http://jwcc.iwaponline.com/content/13/10/3607 |
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