A nomogram for predicting survival of head and neck mucosal melanoma
Abstract Objectives We aimed to understand the clinical characteristics and better predict the prognosis of patients with mucosal melanoma of the head and neck (MMHN) using a nomogram. Methods Three hundred patients with nometastatic MMHN were included. Multivariable Cox regression was performed to...
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BMC
2021-04-01
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| Series: | Cancer Cell International |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12935-021-01927-7 |
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| author | Qing-Qing Xu Qing-Jie Li Liu Chen Xin-Yi Su Jing-Xia Song Juan Du Lei Chen Li-Xia Lu |
| author_facet | Qing-Qing Xu Qing-Jie Li Liu Chen Xin-Yi Su Jing-Xia Song Juan Du Lei Chen Li-Xia Lu |
| author_sort | Qing-Qing Xu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Objectives We aimed to understand the clinical characteristics and better predict the prognosis of patients with mucosal melanoma of the head and neck (MMHN) using a nomogram. Methods Three hundred patients with nometastatic MMHN were included. Multivariable Cox regression was performed to analyze independent prognostic factors for overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS), distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS), and locoregional relapse-free survival (LRRFS), and these factors were used to develop a nomogram. Concordance indexes (C-indexes), calibration plots, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis were performed to test the predictive performance of the nomogram in both the primary (n = 300) and validation cohorts (n = 182). Results The primary tumor site, T stage and N stage were independent risk factors for survival and were included in the nomogram to predict the 3- and 5-year OS, DFS, DMFS, and LRRFS in the primary cohort. The C-indexes (both > 0.700), well-fit calibration plots, and area under the ROC curve (both > 0.700) indicated the high diagnostic accuracy of the nomogram, in both the primary and validation cohorts. The patients were divided into three groups (high-risk, intermediate-risk, and low-risk groups) according to their nomogram scores. The survival curves of OS, DFS, DMFS, and LRRFS were well separated by the risk groups in both cohorts (all P < 0.001). Conclusions The nomogram can stratify MMHN patients into clinically meaningful taxonomies to provide individualized treatment. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-21T21:39:34Z |
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| issn | 1475-2867 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-21T21:39:34Z |
| publishDate | 2021-04-01 |
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| series | Cancer Cell International |
| spelling | doaj.art-841263cf8d034b2ab3e0f6c8e2ce0ced2022-12-21T18:49:24ZengBMCCancer Cell International1475-28672021-04-0121111410.1186/s12935-021-01927-7A nomogram for predicting survival of head and neck mucosal melanomaQing-Qing Xu0Qing-Jie Li1Liu Chen2Xin-Yi Su3Jing-Xia Song4Juan Du5Lei Chen6Li-Xia Lu7Department of Radiation Oncology, State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine, Guangdong Key Laboratory of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Diagnosis and Therapy, Sun Yat-Sen University Cancer CenterDepartment of Radiation Oncology, State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine, Guangdong Key Laboratory of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Diagnosis and Therapy, Sun Yat-Sen University Cancer CenterDepartment of Radiation Oncology, State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine, Guangdong Key Laboratory of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Diagnosis and Therapy, Sun Yat-Sen University Cancer CenterDepartment of Radiation Oncology, State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine, Guangdong Key Laboratory of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Diagnosis and Therapy, Sun Yat-Sen University Cancer CenterDepartment of Radiation Oncology, State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine, Guangdong Key Laboratory of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Diagnosis and Therapy, Sun Yat-Sen University Cancer CenterDepartment of Radiation Oncology, Hubei Cancer Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and TechnologyDepartment of Radiation Oncology, State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine, Guangdong Key Laboratory of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Diagnosis and Therapy, Sun Yat-Sen University Cancer CenterDepartment of Radiation Oncology, State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine, Guangdong Key Laboratory of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Diagnosis and Therapy, Sun Yat-Sen University Cancer CenterAbstract Objectives We aimed to understand the clinical characteristics and better predict the prognosis of patients with mucosal melanoma of the head and neck (MMHN) using a nomogram. Methods Three hundred patients with nometastatic MMHN were included. Multivariable Cox regression was performed to analyze independent prognostic factors for overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS), distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS), and locoregional relapse-free survival (LRRFS), and these factors were used to develop a nomogram. Concordance indexes (C-indexes), calibration plots, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis were performed to test the predictive performance of the nomogram in both the primary (n = 300) and validation cohorts (n = 182). Results The primary tumor site, T stage and N stage were independent risk factors for survival and were included in the nomogram to predict the 3- and 5-year OS, DFS, DMFS, and LRRFS in the primary cohort. The C-indexes (both > 0.700), well-fit calibration plots, and area under the ROC curve (both > 0.700) indicated the high diagnostic accuracy of the nomogram, in both the primary and validation cohorts. The patients were divided into three groups (high-risk, intermediate-risk, and low-risk groups) according to their nomogram scores. The survival curves of OS, DFS, DMFS, and LRRFS were well separated by the risk groups in both cohorts (all P < 0.001). Conclusions The nomogram can stratify MMHN patients into clinically meaningful taxonomies to provide individualized treatment.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12935-021-01927-7Mucosal melanoma of the head and neckClinical outcomesPrognostic factorsNomogram |
| spellingShingle | Qing-Qing Xu Qing-Jie Li Liu Chen Xin-Yi Su Jing-Xia Song Juan Du Lei Chen Li-Xia Lu A nomogram for predicting survival of head and neck mucosal melanoma Cancer Cell International Mucosal melanoma of the head and neck Clinical outcomes Prognostic factors Nomogram |
| title | A nomogram for predicting survival of head and neck mucosal melanoma |
| title_full | A nomogram for predicting survival of head and neck mucosal melanoma |
| title_fullStr | A nomogram for predicting survival of head and neck mucosal melanoma |
| title_full_unstemmed | A nomogram for predicting survival of head and neck mucosal melanoma |
| title_short | A nomogram for predicting survival of head and neck mucosal melanoma |
| title_sort | nomogram for predicting survival of head and neck mucosal melanoma |
| topic | Mucosal melanoma of the head and neck Clinical outcomes Prognostic factors Nomogram |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12935-021-01927-7 |
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