Global multi-hazard risk assessment in a changing climate
Abstract Natural hazards pose significant risks to people and assets in many regions of the world. Quantifying associated risks is crucial for many applications such as adaptation option appraisal and insurance pricing. However, traditional risk assessment approaches have focused on the impacts of s...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2024-03-01
|
| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-55775-2 |
| _version_ | 1797259363007594496 |
|---|---|
| author | Zélie Stalhandske Carmen B. Steinmann Simona Meiler Inga J. Sauer Thomas Vogt David N. Bresch Chahan M. Kropf |
| author_facet | Zélie Stalhandske Carmen B. Steinmann Simona Meiler Inga J. Sauer Thomas Vogt David N. Bresch Chahan M. Kropf |
| author_sort | Zélie Stalhandske |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Natural hazards pose significant risks to people and assets in many regions of the world. Quantifying associated risks is crucial for many applications such as adaptation option appraisal and insurance pricing. However, traditional risk assessment approaches have focused on the impacts of single hazards, ignoring the effects of multi-hazard risks and potentially leading to underestimations or overestimations of risks. In this work, we present a framework for modelling multi-hazard risks globally in a consistent way, considering hazards, exposures, vulnerabilities, and assumptions on recovery. We illustrate the approach using river floods and tropical cyclones impacting people and physical assets on a global scale in a changing climate. To ensure physical consistency, we combine single hazard models that were driven by the same climate model realizations. Our results show that incorporating common physical drivers and recovery considerably alters the multi-hazard risk. We finally demonstrate how our framework can accommodate more than two hazards and integrate diverse assumptions about recovery processes based on a national case study. This framework is implemented in the open-source climate risk assessment platform CLIMADA and can be applied to various hazards and exposures, providing a more comprehensive approach to risk management than conventional methods. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T23:08:14Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-841cd4e6aa42486ab2b08d20f05b6083 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T23:08:14Z |
| publishDate | 2024-03-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-841cd4e6aa42486ab2b08d20f05b60832024-03-17T12:21:00ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222024-03-0114111410.1038/s41598-024-55775-2Global multi-hazard risk assessment in a changing climateZélie Stalhandske0Carmen B. Steinmann1Simona Meiler2Inga J. Sauer3Thomas Vogt4David N. Bresch5Chahan M. Kropf6Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH ZurichInstitute for Environmental Decisions, ETH ZurichInstitute for Environmental Decisions, ETH ZurichInstitute for Environmental Decisions, ETH ZurichPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact ResearchInstitute for Environmental Decisions, ETH ZurichInstitute for Environmental Decisions, ETH ZurichAbstract Natural hazards pose significant risks to people and assets in many regions of the world. Quantifying associated risks is crucial for many applications such as adaptation option appraisal and insurance pricing. However, traditional risk assessment approaches have focused on the impacts of single hazards, ignoring the effects of multi-hazard risks and potentially leading to underestimations or overestimations of risks. In this work, we present a framework for modelling multi-hazard risks globally in a consistent way, considering hazards, exposures, vulnerabilities, and assumptions on recovery. We illustrate the approach using river floods and tropical cyclones impacting people and physical assets on a global scale in a changing climate. To ensure physical consistency, we combine single hazard models that were driven by the same climate model realizations. Our results show that incorporating common physical drivers and recovery considerably alters the multi-hazard risk. We finally demonstrate how our framework can accommodate more than two hazards and integrate diverse assumptions about recovery processes based on a national case study. This framework is implemented in the open-source climate risk assessment platform CLIMADA and can be applied to various hazards and exposures, providing a more comprehensive approach to risk management than conventional methods.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-55775-2 |
| spellingShingle | Zélie Stalhandske Carmen B. Steinmann Simona Meiler Inga J. Sauer Thomas Vogt David N. Bresch Chahan M. Kropf Global multi-hazard risk assessment in a changing climate Scientific Reports |
| title | Global multi-hazard risk assessment in a changing climate |
| title_full | Global multi-hazard risk assessment in a changing climate |
| title_fullStr | Global multi-hazard risk assessment in a changing climate |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global multi-hazard risk assessment in a changing climate |
| title_short | Global multi-hazard risk assessment in a changing climate |
| title_sort | global multi hazard risk assessment in a changing climate |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-55775-2 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT zeliestalhandske globalmultihazardriskassessmentinachangingclimate AT carmenbsteinmann globalmultihazardriskassessmentinachangingclimate AT simonameiler globalmultihazardriskassessmentinachangingclimate AT ingajsauer globalmultihazardriskassessmentinachangingclimate AT thomasvogt globalmultihazardriskassessmentinachangingclimate AT davidnbresch globalmultihazardriskassessmentinachangingclimate AT chahanmkropf globalmultihazardriskassessmentinachangingclimate |