An SIR pairwise epidemic model with infection age and demography

The demography and infection age play an important role in the spread of slowly progressive diseases. To investigate their effects on the disease spreading, we propose a pairwise epidemic model with infection age and demography on dynamic networks. The basic reproduction number of this model is deri...

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Main Authors: Wenjun Jing, Zhen Jin, Juping Zhang
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Taylor & Francis Group 2018-01-01
Series:Journal of Biological Dynamics
Subjects:
Online Access:http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2018.1475018
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author Wenjun Jing
Zhen Jin
Juping Zhang
author_facet Wenjun Jing
Zhen Jin
Juping Zhang
author_sort Wenjun Jing
collection DOAJ
description The demography and infection age play an important role in the spread of slowly progressive diseases. To investigate their effects on the disease spreading, we propose a pairwise epidemic model with infection age and demography on dynamic networks. The basic reproduction number of this model is derived. It is proved that there is a disease-free equilibrium which is globally asymptotically stable if the basic reproduction number is less that unity. Besides, sensitivity analysis is performed and shows that increasing the variance in recovery time and decreasing the variance in infection time can effectively control the diseases. The complex interaction between the death rate and equilibrium prevalence suggests that it is imperative to correctly estimate the parameters of demography in order to assess the disease transmission dynamics accurately. Moreover, numerical simulations show that the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable.
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spelling doaj.art-8425696ca4464aefaa1ad9adeb8abc9a2022-12-21T18:14:41ZengTaylor & Francis GroupJournal of Biological Dynamics1751-37581751-37662018-01-0112148650810.1080/17513758.2018.14750181475018An SIR pairwise epidemic model with infection age and demographyWenjun Jing0Zhen Jin1Juping Zhang2Shanxi UniversityShanxi UniversityShanxi UniversityThe demography and infection age play an important role in the spread of slowly progressive diseases. To investigate their effects on the disease spreading, we propose a pairwise epidemic model with infection age and demography on dynamic networks. The basic reproduction number of this model is derived. It is proved that there is a disease-free equilibrium which is globally asymptotically stable if the basic reproduction number is less that unity. Besides, sensitivity analysis is performed and shows that increasing the variance in recovery time and decreasing the variance in infection time can effectively control the diseases. The complex interaction between the death rate and equilibrium prevalence suggests that it is imperative to correctly estimate the parameters of demography in order to assess the disease transmission dynamics accurately. Moreover, numerical simulations show that the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable.http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2018.1475018demographyinfection agecomplex networknon-markovian transmission and recovery
spellingShingle Wenjun Jing
Zhen Jin
Juping Zhang
An SIR pairwise epidemic model with infection age and demography
Journal of Biological Dynamics
demography
infection age
complex network
non-markovian transmission and recovery
title An SIR pairwise epidemic model with infection age and demography
title_full An SIR pairwise epidemic model with infection age and demography
title_fullStr An SIR pairwise epidemic model with infection age and demography
title_full_unstemmed An SIR pairwise epidemic model with infection age and demography
title_short An SIR pairwise epidemic model with infection age and demography
title_sort sir pairwise epidemic model with infection age and demography
topic demography
infection age
complex network
non-markovian transmission and recovery
url http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2018.1475018
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