On the Non‐Linear Nature of Long‐Term Sea Surface Temperature Global Trends
Abstract The year‐to‐year rate and acceleration of the changes in global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for 1870–2022 are determined using non‐linear techniques. Our methodology identifies the non‐linear, long‐term tendencies of the warming, revealing subtle but essential features of the SST change...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
2024-03-01
|
| Series: | Earth and Space Science |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EA003302 |
| _version_ | 1797218182942949376 |
|---|---|
| author | B. Martinez‐Lopez A. I. Quintanar W. D. Cabos‐Narvaez E. Moreles |
| author_facet | B. Martinez‐Lopez A. I. Quintanar W. D. Cabos‐Narvaez E. Moreles |
| author_sort | B. Martinez‐Lopez |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The year‐to‐year rate and acceleration of the changes in global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for 1870–2022 are determined using non‐linear techniques. Our methodology identifies the non‐linear, long‐term tendencies of the warming, revealing subtle but essential features of the SST changes that are impossible to identify by linear techniques. Our analysis identifies inhomogeneous patterns of SST evolution. For instance, in most equatorial regions, including the western Pacific, the acceleration of the warming is positive, and sustained warming replaces the cooling at the beginning of the records. On the contrary, the warming acceleration in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific is negative, indicating a sustained warming at the beginning of the record that weakens over the years, resulting in a stagnated warming or even a cooling in recent years. We identify a strong warming with a negative acceleration for the North Atlantic. We hypothesize that this warming is part of the multidecadal variability of SST rather than a long‐term trend. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T12:13:42Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-8427354ef2104411b766a14de4a45b33 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2333-5084 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T12:13:42Z |
| publishDate | 2024-03-01 |
| publisher | American Geophysical Union (AGU) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth and Space Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-8427354ef2104411b766a14de4a45b332024-04-08T08:47:01ZengAmerican Geophysical Union (AGU)Earth and Space Science2333-50842024-03-01113n/an/a10.1029/2023EA003302On the Non‐Linear Nature of Long‐Term Sea Surface Temperature Global TrendsB. Martinez‐Lopez0A. I. Quintanar1W. D. Cabos‐Narvaez2E. Moreles3Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Mexico City MexicoInstituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Mexico City MexicoDepartmento de Matemáticas y Física Universidad de Alcalá Alcalá de Henares EspañaInstituto de Ciencias del Mar y Limnología Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Mexico City MexicoAbstract The year‐to‐year rate and acceleration of the changes in global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for 1870–2022 are determined using non‐linear techniques. Our methodology identifies the non‐linear, long‐term tendencies of the warming, revealing subtle but essential features of the SST changes that are impossible to identify by linear techniques. Our analysis identifies inhomogeneous patterns of SST evolution. For instance, in most equatorial regions, including the western Pacific, the acceleration of the warming is positive, and sustained warming replaces the cooling at the beginning of the records. On the contrary, the warming acceleration in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific is negative, indicating a sustained warming at the beginning of the record that weakens over the years, resulting in a stagnated warming or even a cooling in recent years. We identify a strong warming with a negative acceleration for the North Atlantic. We hypothesize that this warming is part of the multidecadal variability of SST rather than a long‐term trend.https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EA003302non‐linear SST trendsglobal warming patternswarming accelerationlong‐term warming |
| spellingShingle | B. Martinez‐Lopez A. I. Quintanar W. D. Cabos‐Narvaez E. Moreles On the Non‐Linear Nature of Long‐Term Sea Surface Temperature Global Trends Earth and Space Science non‐linear SST trends global warming patterns warming acceleration long‐term warming |
| title | On the Non‐Linear Nature of Long‐Term Sea Surface Temperature Global Trends |
| title_full | On the Non‐Linear Nature of Long‐Term Sea Surface Temperature Global Trends |
| title_fullStr | On the Non‐Linear Nature of Long‐Term Sea Surface Temperature Global Trends |
| title_full_unstemmed | On the Non‐Linear Nature of Long‐Term Sea Surface Temperature Global Trends |
| title_short | On the Non‐Linear Nature of Long‐Term Sea Surface Temperature Global Trends |
| title_sort | on the non linear nature of long term sea surface temperature global trends |
| topic | non‐linear SST trends global warming patterns warming acceleration long‐term warming |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EA003302 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT bmartinezlopez onthenonlinearnatureoflongtermseasurfacetemperatureglobaltrends AT aiquintanar onthenonlinearnatureoflongtermseasurfacetemperatureglobaltrends AT wdcabosnarvaez onthenonlinearnatureoflongtermseasurfacetemperatureglobaltrends AT emoreles onthenonlinearnatureoflongtermseasurfacetemperatureglobaltrends |