Characteristics of Winter Precipitation over Pakistan and Possible Causes during 1981–2018
Winter (December to March) precipitation is the major source of rainfed agriculture, storage, and perennial water flow in the western river system of Pakistan. Hence, this study uses precipitation data and variables of land–ocean and atmosphere from the Pakistan Meteorological Department and Europea...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2023-06-01
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| Series: | Water |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/15/13/2420 |
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| author | Adnan Abbas Safi Ullah Waheed Ullah Chengyi Zhao Aisha Karim Muhammad Waseem Asher Samuel Bhatti Gohar Ali Mushtaq Ahmad Jan Amjad Ali |
| author_facet | Adnan Abbas Safi Ullah Waheed Ullah Chengyi Zhao Aisha Karim Muhammad Waseem Asher Samuel Bhatti Gohar Ali Mushtaq Ahmad Jan Amjad Ali |
| author_sort | Adnan Abbas |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Winter (December to March) precipitation is the major source of rainfed agriculture, storage, and perennial water flow in the western river system of Pakistan. Hence, this study uses precipitation data and variables of land–ocean and atmosphere from the Pakistan Meteorological Department and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and fifth-generation reanalysis data (ERA5), respectively, to investigate the changes in winter precipitation and its sensitivity to different land–ocean and atmosphere variables, which are rarely investigated in Pakistan. Non-parametric techniques, such as the modified Mann–Kendal, Sen slope, kernel density-based probability function (PDF), empirical orthogonal function (EOF), and correlation analysis, were used to assess the changes and modes of variability in winter precipitation. The overall seasonal precipitation showed a significant decreasing trend with a (−0.1 mm d<sup>−1</sup> yr<sup>−1</sup>) in the seasonal mean and monthly precipitation, except in February which showed a significant increase (>0.11 mm d<sup>−1</sup> yr<sup>−1</sup>). The highest decrease in daily precipitation (<−0.1 mm d<sup>−1</sup> yr<sup>−1</sup>) was in the north, with a moderate decrease in the southeast. The extreme precipitation indices exhibited an erratic decreasing tendency, but the maximum daily precipitation index increased; post-2000 precipitation extremes displayed an increase, and the seasonal and monthly precipitation exhibited the highest deviations during the drought period (1995–2000). The leading precipitation mode (EOF1) is sensitive to the local land surface processes and significantly correlated (>0.60) with the central Pacific and Indian Ocean’s basin-wide sea surface temperature, corroborating the influence of ENSO-induced meridional/zonal deviation of Hadley–Walker circulations. The Hadley and Walker cells affect the south-westerlies’ jet stream strength, impacting the water vapor transport and precipitation over Pakistan. These changes in the precipitation magnitude will affect rain-fed agriculture, especially the Rabi cropping pattern and perennial river flow. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T01:25:32Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-843f3b4c34b846148825a261a516595f |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4441 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T01:25:32Z |
| publishDate | 2023-06-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Water |
| spelling | doaj.art-843f3b4c34b846148825a261a516595f2023-11-18T17:47:58ZengMDPI AGWater2073-44412023-06-011513242010.3390/w15132420Characteristics of Winter Precipitation over Pakistan and Possible Causes during 1981–2018Adnan Abbas0Safi Ullah1Waheed Ullah2Chengyi Zhao3Aisha Karim4Muhammad Waseem5Asher Samuel Bhatti6Gohar Ali7Mushtaq Ahmad Jan8Amjad Ali9Land Science Research Center, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, ChinaEnvironmental Science and Engineering Program, Biological and Environmental Science and Engineering Division, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal 23955, Saudi ArabiaDefense and Security, Rabdan Academy, Abu Dhabi 1144646, United Arab EmiratesLand Science Research Center, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, ChinaCollaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC–FEMD), School of Geographical Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST), Nanjing 210044, ChinaCenter of Excellence in Water Resources, University of Engineering and Technology, Lahore 54890, PakistanDepartment of Geology, Bacha Khan University Charsadda, P.O. Box 20, Charsadda 24420, PakistanPakistan Meteorological Department, Sector H-8/2, Islamabad 44000, PakistanCentre for Disaster Preparedness and Management, University of Peshawar, Peshawar 25000, PakistanCentre for Disaster Preparedness and Management, University of Peshawar, Peshawar 25000, PakistanWinter (December to March) precipitation is the major source of rainfed agriculture, storage, and perennial water flow in the western river system of Pakistan. Hence, this study uses precipitation data and variables of land–ocean and atmosphere from the Pakistan Meteorological Department and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and fifth-generation reanalysis data (ERA5), respectively, to investigate the changes in winter precipitation and its sensitivity to different land–ocean and atmosphere variables, which are rarely investigated in Pakistan. Non-parametric techniques, such as the modified Mann–Kendal, Sen slope, kernel density-based probability function (PDF), empirical orthogonal function (EOF), and correlation analysis, were used to assess the changes and modes of variability in winter precipitation. The overall seasonal precipitation showed a significant decreasing trend with a (−0.1 mm d<sup>−1</sup> yr<sup>−1</sup>) in the seasonal mean and monthly precipitation, except in February which showed a significant increase (>0.11 mm d<sup>−1</sup> yr<sup>−1</sup>). The highest decrease in daily precipitation (<−0.1 mm d<sup>−1</sup> yr<sup>−1</sup>) was in the north, with a moderate decrease in the southeast. The extreme precipitation indices exhibited an erratic decreasing tendency, but the maximum daily precipitation index increased; post-2000 precipitation extremes displayed an increase, and the seasonal and monthly precipitation exhibited the highest deviations during the drought period (1995–2000). The leading precipitation mode (EOF1) is sensitive to the local land surface processes and significantly correlated (>0.60) with the central Pacific and Indian Ocean’s basin-wide sea surface temperature, corroborating the influence of ENSO-induced meridional/zonal deviation of Hadley–Walker circulations. The Hadley and Walker cells affect the south-westerlies’ jet stream strength, impacting the water vapor transport and precipitation over Pakistan. These changes in the precipitation magnitude will affect rain-fed agriculture, especially the Rabi cropping pattern and perennial river flow.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/15/13/2420winter precipitationempirical orthogonal function (EOF)extreme precipitation indicesHadley and Walker cellsPakistan |
| spellingShingle | Adnan Abbas Safi Ullah Waheed Ullah Chengyi Zhao Aisha Karim Muhammad Waseem Asher Samuel Bhatti Gohar Ali Mushtaq Ahmad Jan Amjad Ali Characteristics of Winter Precipitation over Pakistan and Possible Causes during 1981–2018 Water winter precipitation empirical orthogonal function (EOF) extreme precipitation indices Hadley and Walker cells Pakistan |
| title | Characteristics of Winter Precipitation over Pakistan and Possible Causes during 1981–2018 |
| title_full | Characteristics of Winter Precipitation over Pakistan and Possible Causes during 1981–2018 |
| title_fullStr | Characteristics of Winter Precipitation over Pakistan and Possible Causes during 1981–2018 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Characteristics of Winter Precipitation over Pakistan and Possible Causes during 1981–2018 |
| title_short | Characteristics of Winter Precipitation over Pakistan and Possible Causes during 1981–2018 |
| title_sort | characteristics of winter precipitation over pakistan and possible causes during 1981 2018 |
| topic | winter precipitation empirical orthogonal function (EOF) extreme precipitation indices Hadley and Walker cells Pakistan |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/15/13/2420 |
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