Climate Change Determines Future Population Exposure to Summertime Compound Dry and Hot Events
Abstract Compound dry and hot events (CDHEs) have increased significantly and caused agricultural losses and adverse impacts on human health. It is thus critical to investigate changes in CDHEs and population exposure in responding to climate change. Based on the simulations of the Coupled Model Int...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2022-11-01
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| Series: | Earth's Future |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF003015 |
| _version_ | 1797393203384549376 |
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| author | Gengxi Zhang Huimin Wang Thian Yew Gan Shuyu Zhang Lijie Shi Jin Zhao Xiaoling Su Songbai Song |
| author_facet | Gengxi Zhang Huimin Wang Thian Yew Gan Shuyu Zhang Lijie Shi Jin Zhao Xiaoling Su Songbai Song |
| author_sort | Gengxi Zhang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Compound dry and hot events (CDHEs) have increased significantly and caused agricultural losses and adverse impacts on human health. It is thus critical to investigate changes in CDHEs and population exposure in responding to climate change. Based on the simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), future changes in CDHEs and population exposure are estimated under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios (SSPs) at first. And then the driving forces behind these changes are analyzed and discussed. The results show that the occurrence of CDHEs is expected to increase by larger magnitudes by the end of the 21st century (the 2080s) than that by the mid‐21st century (2050s). Correspondingly, population exposure to CDHEs is expected to increase significantly responding to higher global warming (SSP3‐7.0 and SSP5‐8.5) but is limited to a relatively low level under the modest emission scenarios (SSP1‐2.6). Globally, compared to 1985–2014, the exposure is expected to increase by 8.5 and 7.7 times under SSP3‐7.0 and SSP5‐8.5 scenarios by the 2080s, respectively. Regionally, Sahara has the largest increase in population exposure to CDHEs, followed by the Mediterranean, Northeast America, Central America, Africa, and Central Asia. The contribution of climate change to the increase of exposure is about 75% by the 2080s under the SSP5‐8.5 scenarios, while that of population change is much lower. The conclusion highlights the importance and urgency of implementing mitigation strategies to alleviate the influence of CDHEs on human society. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T23:58:52Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-84a0e0d8d3ed41b2941bbda8a618c9b2 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2328-4277 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T23:58:52Z |
| publishDate | 2022-11-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth's Future |
| spelling | doaj.art-84a0e0d8d3ed41b2941bbda8a618c9b22023-12-12T22:01:38ZengWileyEarth's Future2328-42772022-11-011011n/an/a10.1029/2022EF003015Climate Change Determines Future Population Exposure to Summertime Compound Dry and Hot EventsGengxi Zhang0Huimin Wang1Thian Yew Gan2Shuyu Zhang3Lijie Shi4Jin Zhao5Xiaoling Su6Songbai Song7College of Hydraulic Science and Engineering Yangzhou University Yangzhou ChinaCollege of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering Northwest A & F University Yangling ChinaDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Alberta Edmonton AB CanadaSchool of Environmental Science and Engineering Southern University of Science and Technology Shenzhen ChinaCollege of Hydraulic Science and Engineering Yangzhou University Yangzhou ChinaDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Alberta Edmonton AB CanadaCollege of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering Northwest A & F University Yangling ChinaCollege of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering Northwest A & F University Yangling ChinaAbstract Compound dry and hot events (CDHEs) have increased significantly and caused agricultural losses and adverse impacts on human health. It is thus critical to investigate changes in CDHEs and population exposure in responding to climate change. Based on the simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), future changes in CDHEs and population exposure are estimated under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios (SSPs) at first. And then the driving forces behind these changes are analyzed and discussed. The results show that the occurrence of CDHEs is expected to increase by larger magnitudes by the end of the 21st century (the 2080s) than that by the mid‐21st century (2050s). Correspondingly, population exposure to CDHEs is expected to increase significantly responding to higher global warming (SSP3‐7.0 and SSP5‐8.5) but is limited to a relatively low level under the modest emission scenarios (SSP1‐2.6). Globally, compared to 1985–2014, the exposure is expected to increase by 8.5 and 7.7 times under SSP3‐7.0 and SSP5‐8.5 scenarios by the 2080s, respectively. Regionally, Sahara has the largest increase in population exposure to CDHEs, followed by the Mediterranean, Northeast America, Central America, Africa, and Central Asia. The contribution of climate change to the increase of exposure is about 75% by the 2080s under the SSP5‐8.5 scenarios, while that of population change is much lower. The conclusion highlights the importance and urgency of implementing mitigation strategies to alleviate the influence of CDHEs on human society.https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF003015compound dry and hot events (CDHEs)climate warmingpopulation exposureCMIP6 projectionsglobal climate models |
| spellingShingle | Gengxi Zhang Huimin Wang Thian Yew Gan Shuyu Zhang Lijie Shi Jin Zhao Xiaoling Su Songbai Song Climate Change Determines Future Population Exposure to Summertime Compound Dry and Hot Events Earth's Future compound dry and hot events (CDHEs) climate warming population exposure CMIP6 projections global climate models |
| title | Climate Change Determines Future Population Exposure to Summertime Compound Dry and Hot Events |
| title_full | Climate Change Determines Future Population Exposure to Summertime Compound Dry and Hot Events |
| title_fullStr | Climate Change Determines Future Population Exposure to Summertime Compound Dry and Hot Events |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate Change Determines Future Population Exposure to Summertime Compound Dry and Hot Events |
| title_short | Climate Change Determines Future Population Exposure to Summertime Compound Dry and Hot Events |
| title_sort | climate change determines future population exposure to summertime compound dry and hot events |
| topic | compound dry and hot events (CDHEs) climate warming population exposure CMIP6 projections global climate models |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF003015 |
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