Crime and COVID-19: effect of changes in routine activities in Mexico City
Abstract Background This study aimed to determine whether crime patterns in Mexico City changed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and to test whether any changes observed were associated with the disruption of routine activities, as measured by changes in public transport passenger numbers. Method The f...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2021-06-01
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| Series: | Crime Science |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s40163-021-00151-y |
| _version_ | 1819027221262630912 |
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| author | Patricio R. Estévez-Soto |
| author_facet | Patricio R. Estévez-Soto |
| author_sort | Patricio R. Estévez-Soto |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background This study aimed to determine whether crime patterns in Mexico City changed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and to test whether any changes observed were associated with the disruption of routine activities, as measured by changes in public transport passenger numbers. Method The first objective was assessed by comparing the observed incidence of crime after the COVID-19 pandemic was detected in the country with that expected based on ARIMA forecasts based on the pre-pandemic trends. The second objective was assessed by examining the association between crime incidence and the number of passengers on public transport using regressions with ARIMA errors. Results Results indicated that most crime categories decreased significantly after the pandemic was detected in the country or after a national lockdown was instituted. Furthermore, the study found that some of the declines observed were associated with the reductions seen in public transport passenger numbers. However, the findings suggested that the changes in mobility explain part of the declines observed, with important variations per crime type. Conclusion The findings contribute to the global evaluation of the effects of COVID-19 on crime and propose a robust method to explicitly test whether the changes observed are associated with changes in routine activities. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-21T05:39:01Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-84c396e550ff4217bbbb25d9650fbd5e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2193-7680 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-21T05:39:01Z |
| publishDate | 2021-06-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Crime Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-84c396e550ff4217bbbb25d9650fbd5e2022-12-21T19:14:19ZengBMCCrime Science2193-76802021-06-0110111710.1186/s40163-021-00151-yCrime and COVID-19: effect of changes in routine activities in Mexico CityPatricio R. Estévez-Soto0UCL Department of Security and Crime Science, UCL Jill Dando Institute of Security and Crime ScienceAbstract Background This study aimed to determine whether crime patterns in Mexico City changed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and to test whether any changes observed were associated with the disruption of routine activities, as measured by changes in public transport passenger numbers. Method The first objective was assessed by comparing the observed incidence of crime after the COVID-19 pandemic was detected in the country with that expected based on ARIMA forecasts based on the pre-pandemic trends. The second objective was assessed by examining the association between crime incidence and the number of passengers on public transport using regressions with ARIMA errors. Results Results indicated that most crime categories decreased significantly after the pandemic was detected in the country or after a national lockdown was instituted. Furthermore, the study found that some of the declines observed were associated with the reductions seen in public transport passenger numbers. However, the findings suggested that the changes in mobility explain part of the declines observed, with important variations per crime type. Conclusion The findings contribute to the global evaluation of the effects of COVID-19 on crime and propose a robust method to explicitly test whether the changes observed are associated with changes in routine activities.https://doi.org/10.1186/s40163-021-00151-yCOVID-19Crime incidenceARIMAMexico City |
| spellingShingle | Patricio R. Estévez-Soto Crime and COVID-19: effect of changes in routine activities in Mexico City Crime Science COVID-19 Crime incidence ARIMA Mexico City |
| title | Crime and COVID-19: effect of changes in routine activities in Mexico City |
| title_full | Crime and COVID-19: effect of changes in routine activities in Mexico City |
| title_fullStr | Crime and COVID-19: effect of changes in routine activities in Mexico City |
| title_full_unstemmed | Crime and COVID-19: effect of changes in routine activities in Mexico City |
| title_short | Crime and COVID-19: effect of changes in routine activities in Mexico City |
| title_sort | crime and covid 19 effect of changes in routine activities in mexico city |
| topic | COVID-19 Crime incidence ARIMA Mexico City |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s40163-021-00151-y |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT patriciorestevezsoto crimeandcovid19effectofchangesinroutineactivitiesinmexicocity |