Co-occurring wintertime flooding and extreme wind over Europe, from daily to seasonal timescales
The risk posed by heavy rain and strong wind is now suspected to be exacerbated by the way they co-occur, yet this remains insufficiently understood to effectively plan and mitigate. This study systematically investigates the correlations between wintertime (Oct–Mar) extremes relating to wind and fl...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2023-03-01
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| Series: | Weather and Climate Extremes |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094723000038 |
| _version_ | 1797894672758079488 |
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| author | Bloomfield H.C. Hillier J. Griffin A. Kay A.L. Shaffrey L.C. Pianosi F. James R. Kumar D. Champion A. Bates P.D. |
| author_facet | Bloomfield H.C. Hillier J. Griffin A. Kay A.L. Shaffrey L.C. Pianosi F. James R. Kumar D. Champion A. Bates P.D. |
| author_sort | Bloomfield H.C. |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The risk posed by heavy rain and strong wind is now suspected to be exacerbated by the way they co-occur, yet this remains insufficiently understood to effectively plan and mitigate. This study systematically investigates the correlations between wintertime (Oct–Mar) extremes relating to wind and flooding at all timescales from daily to seasonal. Meteorological reanalysis and river flow datasets are used to explore the historical period, and climate projections at 12 km resolution are analysed to understand the possible effects of future climate change (2061–2080, RCP 8.5). A new flood severity index (FSI) is also developed to complement the existing storm severity index (SSI). Initially, Great Britain (GB) is taken as a comparatively simple yet informative study area, then analysis is extended to the full European domain.Aggregated across GB, wind gusts and precipitation correlate strongly (rs ∼0.6–0.8) at timescales from daily to seasonal, but peak around 10 days. A later peak is seen when considering correlations between wind gusts and river flows (40–60 days). This time is likely needed for catchments’ soils to saturate. A conceptual multi-temporal, multi-process model of GB wintertime flood-wind co-occurrence is proposed as a basis for future investigation. When historical analysis is extended across Europe we find the timescale of maximum correlation varies strongly between nations, likely as a result of different meteorological drivers.Impact focused correlation (FSI–SSI) is lower (rs∼0.2) but increases notably with climate change at timescales of ∼40 days (rs∼0.4). Tentatively, very severe episodes (i.e., both >99th percentile) appear heavily influenced by climate change, increasing roughly threefold by 2061–2080 (p < 0.05). The return period of such an event is 16 years historically (compared to 56 years if the two hazards were independent), reduces to 5 years in future. Such metrics provide actionable information for insurers and other stakeholders. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T07:14:11Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-8521fdad97df4db282cf4ddfd89d30d6 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2212-0947 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T07:14:11Z |
| publishDate | 2023-03-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Weather and Climate Extremes |
| spelling | doaj.art-8521fdad97df4db282cf4ddfd89d30d62023-02-26T04:27:12ZengElsevierWeather and Climate Extremes2212-09472023-03-0139100550Co-occurring wintertime flooding and extreme wind over Europe, from daily to seasonal timescalesBloomfield H.C.0Hillier J.1Griffin A.2Kay A.L.3Shaffrey L.C.4Pianosi F.5James R.6Kumar D.7Champion A.8Bates P.D.9School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, University Road, Bristol, BS8 1SS, UK; Corresponding author.Geography, Loughborough University, Loughborough, LE11 3TT, UKUK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UKUK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UKDepartment of Meteorology, University of Reading, Whiteknights Road, Reading, RG6 7BE, UK; National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Whiteknights Road, Reading, RG6 7BE, UKDepartment of Civil Engineering, University of Bristol, University Road, Bristol, BS8 1SS, UK; Cabot Institute, University of Bristol, University Road, Bristol, BS8 1SS, UKSchool of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, University Road, Bristol, BS8 1SS, UKDepartment of Meteorology, University of Reading, Whiteknights Road, Reading, RG6 7BE, UK; National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Whiteknights Road, Reading, RG6 7BE, UKAON, The Aon Centre, 122 Leadenhall Street, London, EC3V 4AN, UKSchool of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, University Road, Bristol, BS8 1SS, UK; Cabot Institute, University of Bristol, University Road, Bristol, BS8 1SS, UKThe risk posed by heavy rain and strong wind is now suspected to be exacerbated by the way they co-occur, yet this remains insufficiently understood to effectively plan and mitigate. This study systematically investigates the correlations between wintertime (Oct–Mar) extremes relating to wind and flooding at all timescales from daily to seasonal. Meteorological reanalysis and river flow datasets are used to explore the historical period, and climate projections at 12 km resolution are analysed to understand the possible effects of future climate change (2061–2080, RCP 8.5). A new flood severity index (FSI) is also developed to complement the existing storm severity index (SSI). Initially, Great Britain (GB) is taken as a comparatively simple yet informative study area, then analysis is extended to the full European domain.Aggregated across GB, wind gusts and precipitation correlate strongly (rs ∼0.6–0.8) at timescales from daily to seasonal, but peak around 10 days. A later peak is seen when considering correlations between wind gusts and river flows (40–60 days). This time is likely needed for catchments’ soils to saturate. A conceptual multi-temporal, multi-process model of GB wintertime flood-wind co-occurrence is proposed as a basis for future investigation. When historical analysis is extended across Europe we find the timescale of maximum correlation varies strongly between nations, likely as a result of different meteorological drivers.Impact focused correlation (FSI–SSI) is lower (rs∼0.2) but increases notably with climate change at timescales of ∼40 days (rs∼0.4). Tentatively, very severe episodes (i.e., both >99th percentile) appear heavily influenced by climate change, increasing roughly threefold by 2061–2080 (p < 0.05). The return period of such an event is 16 years historically (compared to 56 years if the two hazards were independent), reduces to 5 years in future. Such metrics provide actionable information for insurers and other stakeholders.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094723000038Compound eventWind gustsFloodingExtreme eventInsurance sectorCompound risk |
| spellingShingle | Bloomfield H.C. Hillier J. Griffin A. Kay A.L. Shaffrey L.C. Pianosi F. James R. Kumar D. Champion A. Bates P.D. Co-occurring wintertime flooding and extreme wind over Europe, from daily to seasonal timescales Weather and Climate Extremes Compound event Wind gusts Flooding Extreme event Insurance sector Compound risk |
| title | Co-occurring wintertime flooding and extreme wind over Europe, from daily to seasonal timescales |
| title_full | Co-occurring wintertime flooding and extreme wind over Europe, from daily to seasonal timescales |
| title_fullStr | Co-occurring wintertime flooding and extreme wind over Europe, from daily to seasonal timescales |
| title_full_unstemmed | Co-occurring wintertime flooding and extreme wind over Europe, from daily to seasonal timescales |
| title_short | Co-occurring wintertime flooding and extreme wind over Europe, from daily to seasonal timescales |
| title_sort | co occurring wintertime flooding and extreme wind over europe from daily to seasonal timescales |
| topic | Compound event Wind gusts Flooding Extreme event Insurance sector Compound risk |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094723000038 |
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