Nowcasting Avalanches as Earthquakes and the Predictability of Strong Avalanches in the Olami-Feder-Christensen Model
Nowcasting earthquakes, suggested recently as a method to estimate the state of a fault and hence the seismic risk, is based on the concept of natural time. Here, we generalize nowcasting to a prediction method the merits of which are evaluated by means of the receiver operating characteristics. Thi...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2020-10-01
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| Series: | Entropy |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/22/11/1228 |
| _version_ | 1797549531450048512 |
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| author | Jennifer Perez-Oregon Fernando Angulo-Brown Nicholas Vassiliou Sarlis |
| author_facet | Jennifer Perez-Oregon Fernando Angulo-Brown Nicholas Vassiliou Sarlis |
| author_sort | Jennifer Perez-Oregon |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Nowcasting earthquakes, suggested recently as a method to estimate the state of a fault and hence the seismic risk, is based on the concept of natural time. Here, we generalize nowcasting to a prediction method the merits of which are evaluated by means of the receiver operating characteristics. This new prediction method is applied to a simple (toy) model for the waiting (natural) time of the stronger earthquakes, real seismicity, and the Olami-Feder-Christensen earthquake model with interesting results revealing acceptable to excellent or even outstanding performance. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T15:15:55Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-852c4e9740534fc79c9a19cdfd5a6bc3 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1099-4300 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T15:15:55Z |
| publishDate | 2020-10-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Entropy |
| spelling | doaj.art-852c4e9740534fc79c9a19cdfd5a6bc32023-11-20T18:54:05ZengMDPI AGEntropy1099-43002020-10-012211122810.3390/e22111228Nowcasting Avalanches as Earthquakes and the Predictability of Strong Avalanches in the Olami-Feder-Christensen ModelJennifer Perez-Oregon0Fernando Angulo-Brown1Nicholas Vassiliou Sarlis2Solid Earth Physics Institute, Physics Department, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Panepistimiopolis, Zografos, 157 84 Athens, GreeceDepartamento de Física, Escuela Superior de Física y Matemáticas, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, UP Zacatenco C.P., Mexico City 07738, MexicoSolid Earth Physics Institute, Physics Department, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Panepistimiopolis, Zografos, 157 84 Athens, GreeceNowcasting earthquakes, suggested recently as a method to estimate the state of a fault and hence the seismic risk, is based on the concept of natural time. Here, we generalize nowcasting to a prediction method the merits of which are evaluated by means of the receiver operating characteristics. This new prediction method is applied to a simple (toy) model for the waiting (natural) time of the stronger earthquakes, real seismicity, and the Olami-Feder-Christensen earthquake model with interesting results revealing acceptable to excellent or even outstanding performance.https://www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/22/11/1228earthquakesavalanchesnatural time analysisOlami-Feder-Christensen modelnowcasting earthquakes |
| spellingShingle | Jennifer Perez-Oregon Fernando Angulo-Brown Nicholas Vassiliou Sarlis Nowcasting Avalanches as Earthquakes and the Predictability of Strong Avalanches in the Olami-Feder-Christensen Model Entropy earthquakes avalanches natural time analysis Olami-Feder-Christensen model nowcasting earthquakes |
| title | Nowcasting Avalanches as Earthquakes and the Predictability of Strong Avalanches in the Olami-Feder-Christensen Model |
| title_full | Nowcasting Avalanches as Earthquakes and the Predictability of Strong Avalanches in the Olami-Feder-Christensen Model |
| title_fullStr | Nowcasting Avalanches as Earthquakes and the Predictability of Strong Avalanches in the Olami-Feder-Christensen Model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Nowcasting Avalanches as Earthquakes and the Predictability of Strong Avalanches in the Olami-Feder-Christensen Model |
| title_short | Nowcasting Avalanches as Earthquakes and the Predictability of Strong Avalanches in the Olami-Feder-Christensen Model |
| title_sort | nowcasting avalanches as earthquakes and the predictability of strong avalanches in the olami feder christensen model |
| topic | earthquakes avalanches natural time analysis Olami-Feder-Christensen model nowcasting earthquakes |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/22/11/1228 |
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