MARSplines method as a tool for failure frequency modelling
The paper presents the results of failure rate prediction using adaptive algorithm MARSplines. This method could be defined as segmental and multiple linear regression. The range of segments defines the range of applicability of that methodology. On the basis of operational data received from Water...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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EDP Sciences
2018-01-01
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| Series: | E3S Web of Conferences |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20184400086 |
| _version_ | 1818619055387443200 |
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| author | Kutyłowska Małgorzata |
| author_facet | Kutyłowska Małgorzata |
| author_sort | Kutyłowska Małgorzata |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The paper presents the results of failure rate prediction using adaptive algorithm MARSplines. This method could be defined as segmental and multiple linear regression. The range of segments defines the range of applicability of that methodology. On the basis of operational data received from Water Utility two separate models were created for distribution pipes and house connections. The calculations were carried out in the programme Statistica 13.1. Maximal number of basis function was equalled to 30; so-called pruning was used. Interaction level equalled to 1, the penalty for adding basis function amounted to 2, and the threshold – 0.0005. GCV error equalled to 0.0018 and 0.0253 as well as 0.0738 and 0.1058 for distribution pipes and house connections in learning and prognosis process, respectively. The prediction results in validation step were not satisfactory in relation to distribution pipes, because constant value of failure rate was observed. Concerning house connections, the forecasting was slightly better, but still the overestimation seems to be unacceptable from engineering point of view. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-16T17:31:24Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-8566d9f7f5b94c408a8db433549b73ab |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2267-1242 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-16T17:31:24Z |
| publishDate | 2018-01-01 |
| publisher | EDP Sciences |
| record_format | Article |
| series | E3S Web of Conferences |
| spelling | doaj.art-8566d9f7f5b94c408a8db433549b73ab2022-12-21T22:22:55ZengEDP SciencesE3S Web of Conferences2267-12422018-01-01440008610.1051/e3sconf/20184400086e3sconf_eko-dok2018_00086MARSplines method as a tool for failure frequency modellingKutyłowska MałgorzataThe paper presents the results of failure rate prediction using adaptive algorithm MARSplines. This method could be defined as segmental and multiple linear regression. The range of segments defines the range of applicability of that methodology. On the basis of operational data received from Water Utility two separate models were created for distribution pipes and house connections. The calculations were carried out in the programme Statistica 13.1. Maximal number of basis function was equalled to 30; so-called pruning was used. Interaction level equalled to 1, the penalty for adding basis function amounted to 2, and the threshold – 0.0005. GCV error equalled to 0.0018 and 0.0253 as well as 0.0738 and 0.1058 for distribution pipes and house connections in learning and prognosis process, respectively. The prediction results in validation step were not satisfactory in relation to distribution pipes, because constant value of failure rate was observed. Concerning house connections, the forecasting was slightly better, but still the overestimation seems to be unacceptable from engineering point of view.https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20184400086 |
| spellingShingle | Kutyłowska Małgorzata MARSplines method as a tool for failure frequency modelling E3S Web of Conferences |
| title | MARSplines method as a tool for failure frequency modelling |
| title_full | MARSplines method as a tool for failure frequency modelling |
| title_fullStr | MARSplines method as a tool for failure frequency modelling |
| title_full_unstemmed | MARSplines method as a tool for failure frequency modelling |
| title_short | MARSplines method as a tool for failure frequency modelling |
| title_sort | marsplines method as a tool for failure frequency modelling |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20184400086 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT kutyłowskamałgorzata marsplinesmethodasatoolforfailurefrequencymodelling |