Exploring the potential public health benefits of universal influenza vaccine
Background: Broadly protective, long-lasting universal influenza vaccines are under development in response to low-moderate seasonal vaccine effectiveness, frequent genetic changes in circulating viruses and extended turnaround for vaccine manufacture. Because a long-lasting vaccine might be less ef...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Taylor & Francis Group
2019-12-01
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| Series: | Human Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/21645515.2019.1619406 |
| _version_ | 1797677420137938944 |
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| author | Jay V. DePasse Mary Patricia Nowalk Kenneth J. Smith Jonathan M. Raviotta Eunha Shim Richard K. Zimmerman Shawn T. Brown |
| author_facet | Jay V. DePasse Mary Patricia Nowalk Kenneth J. Smith Jonathan M. Raviotta Eunha Shim Richard K. Zimmerman Shawn T. Brown |
| author_sort | Jay V. DePasse |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background: Broadly protective, long-lasting universal influenza vaccines are under development in response to low-moderate seasonal vaccine effectiveness, frequent genetic changes in circulating viruses and extended turnaround for vaccine manufacture. Because a long-lasting vaccine might be less effective than a seasonal vaccine that has been matched to current circulating strains, the public health impact of its introduction should be evaluated. Methods: A modified agent-based model (ABM) examined multi-year effects of a universal vaccine among 18 to 49-year-olds, given in Year 1 only. The proportion of vaccinated 18 to 49-year-olds who received universal vaccine was varied from 0% to 100%. Model parameters were drawn from US databases and the medical literature. Outcomes were 4-year cumulative and annual influenza cases as well as annual cases averted/100,000 population for 3 age groups, 0–17 years, 18–49 years and 50+ years. Results: In Year 1 when universal vaccine was given to 50% or 100% of all vaccinated 18 to 49-year-olds, more influenza cases occurred, compared to no universal vaccine, but fewer cases occurred in Years 2–4 as overall protection increased. Cumulative averted cases over 4 years in 18 to 49-year-olds were 892/100,000 and 1,687/100,000 population for the 50% and 100% universal vaccine for 18 to 49-year-olds scenarios, respectively, with additional benefits to children and older adults through indirect effects. Conclusions: In ABM, the universal vaccine with a conservative VE estimate given once to 18 to 49-year-olds reduced influenza cases among all age groups in Years 2–4 following its introduction. Reduced influenza burden may occur sooner if VE of universal vaccines exceeds that assumed in these models. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T22:43:50Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-858995d8a0c448418076575f341e534d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2164-5515 2164-554X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T22:43:50Z |
| publishDate | 2019-12-01 |
| publisher | Taylor & Francis Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Human Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics |
| spelling | doaj.art-858995d8a0c448418076575f341e534d2023-09-22T08:45:31ZengTaylor & Francis GroupHuman Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics2164-55152164-554X2019-12-0115122919292610.1080/21645515.2019.16194061619406Exploring the potential public health benefits of universal influenza vaccineJay V. DePasse0Mary Patricia Nowalk1Kenneth J. Smith2Jonathan M. Raviotta3Eunha Shim4Richard K. Zimmerman5Shawn T. Brown6University of Pittsburgh School of MedicineCarnegie Mellon UniversityUniversity of Pittsburgh School of MedicineUniversity of Pittsburgh School of MedicineSoongsil UniversityUniversity of Pittsburgh School of MedicineMcGill UniversityBackground: Broadly protective, long-lasting universal influenza vaccines are under development in response to low-moderate seasonal vaccine effectiveness, frequent genetic changes in circulating viruses and extended turnaround for vaccine manufacture. Because a long-lasting vaccine might be less effective than a seasonal vaccine that has been matched to current circulating strains, the public health impact of its introduction should be evaluated. Methods: A modified agent-based model (ABM) examined multi-year effects of a universal vaccine among 18 to 49-year-olds, given in Year 1 only. The proportion of vaccinated 18 to 49-year-olds who received universal vaccine was varied from 0% to 100%. Model parameters were drawn from US databases and the medical literature. Outcomes were 4-year cumulative and annual influenza cases as well as annual cases averted/100,000 population for 3 age groups, 0–17 years, 18–49 years and 50+ years. Results: In Year 1 when universal vaccine was given to 50% or 100% of all vaccinated 18 to 49-year-olds, more influenza cases occurred, compared to no universal vaccine, but fewer cases occurred in Years 2–4 as overall protection increased. Cumulative averted cases over 4 years in 18 to 49-year-olds were 892/100,000 and 1,687/100,000 population for the 50% and 100% universal vaccine for 18 to 49-year-olds scenarios, respectively, with additional benefits to children and older adults through indirect effects. Conclusions: In ABM, the universal vaccine with a conservative VE estimate given once to 18 to 49-year-olds reduced influenza cases among all age groups in Years 2–4 following its introduction. Reduced influenza burden may occur sooner if VE of universal vaccines exceeds that assumed in these models.http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/21645515.2019.1619406influenzauniversal influenza vaccineagent-based modeling |
| spellingShingle | Jay V. DePasse Mary Patricia Nowalk Kenneth J. Smith Jonathan M. Raviotta Eunha Shim Richard K. Zimmerman Shawn T. Brown Exploring the potential public health benefits of universal influenza vaccine Human Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics influenza universal influenza vaccine agent-based modeling |
| title | Exploring the potential public health benefits of universal influenza vaccine |
| title_full | Exploring the potential public health benefits of universal influenza vaccine |
| title_fullStr | Exploring the potential public health benefits of universal influenza vaccine |
| title_full_unstemmed | Exploring the potential public health benefits of universal influenza vaccine |
| title_short | Exploring the potential public health benefits of universal influenza vaccine |
| title_sort | exploring the potential public health benefits of universal influenza vaccine |
| topic | influenza universal influenza vaccine agent-based modeling |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/21645515.2019.1619406 |
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