Plant traits poorly predict winner and loser shrub species in a warming tundra biome
Abstract Climate change is leading to species redistributions. In the tundra biome, shrubs are generally expanding, but not all tundra shrub species will benefit from warming. Winner and loser species, and the characteristics that may determine success or failure, have not yet been fully identified....
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2023-06-01
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| Series: | Nature Communications |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-39573-4 |
| _version_ | 1827910707376553984 |
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| author | Mariana García Criado Isla H. Myers-Smith Anne D. Bjorkman Signe Normand Anne Blach-Overgaard Haydn J. D. Thomas Anu Eskelinen Konsta Happonen Juha M. Alatalo Alba Anadon-Rosell Isabelle Aubin Mariska te Beest Katlyn R. Betway-May Daan Blok Allan Buras Bruno E. L. Cerabolini Katherine Christie J. Hans C. Cornelissen Bruce C. Forbes Esther R. Frei Paul Grogan Luise Hermanutz Robert D. Hollister James Hudson Maitane Iturrate-Garcia Elina Kaarlejärvi Michael Kleyer Laurent J. Lamarque Jonas J. Lembrechts Esther Lévesque Miska Luoto Petr Macek Jeremy L. May Janet S. Prevéy Gabriela Schaepman-Strub Serge N. Sheremetiev Laura Siegwart Collier Nadejda A. Soudzilovskaia Andrew Trant Susanna E. Venn Anna-Maria Virkkala |
| author_facet | Mariana García Criado Isla H. Myers-Smith Anne D. Bjorkman Signe Normand Anne Blach-Overgaard Haydn J. D. Thomas Anu Eskelinen Konsta Happonen Juha M. Alatalo Alba Anadon-Rosell Isabelle Aubin Mariska te Beest Katlyn R. Betway-May Daan Blok Allan Buras Bruno E. L. Cerabolini Katherine Christie J. Hans C. Cornelissen Bruce C. Forbes Esther R. Frei Paul Grogan Luise Hermanutz Robert D. Hollister James Hudson Maitane Iturrate-Garcia Elina Kaarlejärvi Michael Kleyer Laurent J. Lamarque Jonas J. Lembrechts Esther Lévesque Miska Luoto Petr Macek Jeremy L. May Janet S. Prevéy Gabriela Schaepman-Strub Serge N. Sheremetiev Laura Siegwart Collier Nadejda A. Soudzilovskaia Andrew Trant Susanna E. Venn Anna-Maria Virkkala |
| author_sort | Mariana García Criado |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Climate change is leading to species redistributions. In the tundra biome, shrubs are generally expanding, but not all tundra shrub species will benefit from warming. Winner and loser species, and the characteristics that may determine success or failure, have not yet been fully identified. Here, we investigate whether past abundance changes, current range sizes and projected range shifts derived from species distribution models are related to plant trait values and intraspecific trait variation. We combined 17,921 trait records with observed past and modelled future distributions from 62 tundra shrub species across three continents. We found that species with greater variation in seed mass and specific leaf area had larger projected range shifts, and projected winner species had greater seed mass values. However, trait values and variation were not consistently related to current and projected ranges, nor to past abundance change. Overall, our findings indicate that abundance change and range shifts will not lead to directional modifications in shrub trait composition, since winner and loser species share relatively similar trait spaces. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T01:54:33Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-85bf0056a0f14e5db710f1191dd8382c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2041-1723 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T01:54:33Z |
| publishDate | 2023-06-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Nature Communications |
| spelling | doaj.art-85bf0056a0f14e5db710f1191dd8382c2023-07-02T11:19:42ZengNature PortfolioNature Communications2041-17232023-06-0114111710.1038/s41467-023-39573-4Plant traits poorly predict winner and loser shrub species in a warming tundra biomeMariana García Criado0Isla H. Myers-Smith1Anne D. Bjorkman2Signe Normand3Anne Blach-Overgaard4Haydn J. D. Thomas5Anu Eskelinen6Konsta Happonen7Juha M. Alatalo8Alba Anadon-Rosell9Isabelle Aubin10Mariska te Beest11Katlyn R. Betway-May12Daan Blok13Allan Buras14Bruno E. L. Cerabolini15Katherine Christie16J. Hans C. Cornelissen17Bruce C. Forbes18Esther R. Frei19Paul Grogan20Luise Hermanutz21Robert D. Hollister22James Hudson23Maitane Iturrate-Garcia24Elina Kaarlejärvi25Michael Kleyer26Laurent J. Lamarque27Jonas J. Lembrechts28Esther Lévesque29Miska Luoto30Petr Macek31Jeremy L. May32Janet S. Prevéy33Gabriela Schaepman-Strub34Serge N. Sheremetiev35Laura Siegwart Collier36Nadejda A. Soudzilovskaia37Andrew Trant38Susanna E. Venn39Anna-Maria Virkkala40School of GeoSciences, University of EdinburghSchool of GeoSciences, University of EdinburghDepartment of Biology and Environmental Sciences, University of GothenburgDepartment of Biology, Aarhus UniversityDepartment of Biology, Aarhus UniversitySchool of GeoSciences, University of EdinburghDepartment of Physiological Diversity, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZDepartment of Biology and Environmental Sciences, University of GothenburgEnvironmental Science Center, Qatar UniversityCREAF, Cerdanyola del VallèsNatural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Great Lakes Forestry CentreCopernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht UniversityBiology Department, Grand Valley State UniversityDutch Research Council (NWO)Land Surface-Atmosphere Interactions, School of Life Sciences WeihenstephanDepartment of Biotechnologies and Life Sciences, University of InsubriaThreatened, Endangered, and Diversity Program, Alaska Department of Fish and GameSection Systems Ecology, Amsterdam Institute for Life and Environment (A-LIFE), Vrije UniversiteitArctic Centre, University of LaplandWSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLFDepartment of Biology, Queen’s University, KingstonDepartment of Biology, Memorial UniversityBiology Department, Grand Valley State UniversityGovernment of British ColumbiaDepartment of Chemical and Biological Metrology, Federal Institute of Metrology METASResearch Centre for Ecological Change, Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme, University of HelsinkiInstitute of Biology and Environmental Sciences, University of OldenburgDépartement des Sciences de l’environnement et Centre d’études nordiques, Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières, Trois-RivièresResearch Group Plants and Ecosystems (PLECO), University of AntwerpDépartement des Sciences de l’environnement et Centre d’études nordiques, Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières, Trois-RivièresDepartment of Geosciences and Geography, University of HelsinkiInstitute of Hydrobiology, Biology Centre of the Czech Academy of SciencesDepartment of Biological Sciences, Florida International UniversityWSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLFDepartment of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of ZurichKomarov Botanical InstituteDepartment of Biology, Memorial UniversityCentre for Environmental Sciences, Hasselt UniversitySchool of Environment, Resources and Sustainability, University of WaterlooCentre for Integrative Ecology, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Deakin UniversityDepartment of Geosciences and Geography, University of HelsinkiAbstract Climate change is leading to species redistributions. In the tundra biome, shrubs are generally expanding, but not all tundra shrub species will benefit from warming. Winner and loser species, and the characteristics that may determine success or failure, have not yet been fully identified. Here, we investigate whether past abundance changes, current range sizes and projected range shifts derived from species distribution models are related to plant trait values and intraspecific trait variation. We combined 17,921 trait records with observed past and modelled future distributions from 62 tundra shrub species across three continents. We found that species with greater variation in seed mass and specific leaf area had larger projected range shifts, and projected winner species had greater seed mass values. However, trait values and variation were not consistently related to current and projected ranges, nor to past abundance change. Overall, our findings indicate that abundance change and range shifts will not lead to directional modifications in shrub trait composition, since winner and loser species share relatively similar trait spaces.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-39573-4 |
| spellingShingle | Mariana García Criado Isla H. Myers-Smith Anne D. Bjorkman Signe Normand Anne Blach-Overgaard Haydn J. D. Thomas Anu Eskelinen Konsta Happonen Juha M. Alatalo Alba Anadon-Rosell Isabelle Aubin Mariska te Beest Katlyn R. Betway-May Daan Blok Allan Buras Bruno E. L. Cerabolini Katherine Christie J. Hans C. Cornelissen Bruce C. Forbes Esther R. Frei Paul Grogan Luise Hermanutz Robert D. Hollister James Hudson Maitane Iturrate-Garcia Elina Kaarlejärvi Michael Kleyer Laurent J. Lamarque Jonas J. Lembrechts Esther Lévesque Miska Luoto Petr Macek Jeremy L. May Janet S. Prevéy Gabriela Schaepman-Strub Serge N. Sheremetiev Laura Siegwart Collier Nadejda A. Soudzilovskaia Andrew Trant Susanna E. Venn Anna-Maria Virkkala Plant traits poorly predict winner and loser shrub species in a warming tundra biome Nature Communications |
| title | Plant traits poorly predict winner and loser shrub species in a warming tundra biome |
| title_full | Plant traits poorly predict winner and loser shrub species in a warming tundra biome |
| title_fullStr | Plant traits poorly predict winner and loser shrub species in a warming tundra biome |
| title_full_unstemmed | Plant traits poorly predict winner and loser shrub species in a warming tundra biome |
| title_short | Plant traits poorly predict winner and loser shrub species in a warming tundra biome |
| title_sort | plant traits poorly predict winner and loser shrub species in a warming tundra biome |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-39573-4 |
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