Atmospheric teleconnection influence on North American land surface phenology
Short-term forecasts of vegetation activity are currently not well constrained due largely to our lack of understanding of coupled climate-vegetation dynamics mediated by complex interactions between atmospheric teleconnection patterns. Using ecoregion-scale estimates of North American vegetation ac...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2018-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa85a |
| _version_ | 1797748285934403584 |
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| author | Matthew P Dannenberg Erika K Wise Mark Janko Taehee Hwang W Kolby Smith |
| author_facet | Matthew P Dannenberg Erika K Wise Mark Janko Taehee Hwang W Kolby Smith |
| author_sort | Matthew P Dannenberg |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Short-term forecasts of vegetation activity are currently not well constrained due largely to our lack of understanding of coupled climate-vegetation dynamics mediated by complex interactions between atmospheric teleconnection patterns. Using ecoregion-scale estimates of North American vegetation activity inferred from remote sensing (1982–2015), we examined seasonal and spatial relationships between land surface phenology and the atmospheric components of five teleconnection patterns over the tropical Pacific, north Pacific, and north Atlantic. Using a set of regression experiments, we also tested for interactions among these teleconnection patterns and assessed predictability of vegetation activity solely based on knowledge of atmospheric teleconnection indices. Autumn-to-winter composites of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) were strongly correlated with start of growing season timing, especially in the Pacific Northwest. The two leading modes of north Pacific variability (the Pacific-North American, PNA, and West Pacific patterns) were significantly correlated with start of growing season timing across much of southern Canada and the upper Great Lakes. Regression models based on these Pacific teleconnections were skillful predictors of spring phenology across an east-west swath of temperate and boreal North America, between 40°N–60°N. While the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was not strongly correlated with start of growing season timing on its own, we found compelling evidence of widespread NAO-SOI and NAO-PNA interaction effects. These results suggest that knowledge of atmospheric conditions over the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans increases the predictability of North American spring phenology. A more robust consideration of the complexity of the atmospheric circulation system, including interactions across multiple ocean basins, is an important step towards accurate forecasts of vegetation activity. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:03:43Z |
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| id | doaj.art-86029019926846c38df4e69560403c8e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:03:43Z |
| publishDate | 2018-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-86029019926846c38df4e69560403c8e2023-08-09T14:31:06ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262018-01-0113303402910.1088/1748-9326/aaa85aAtmospheric teleconnection influence on North American land surface phenologyMatthew P Dannenberg0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6518-4897Erika K Wise1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1712-7476Mark Janko2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4099-3081Taehee Hwang3https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2755-4279W Kolby Smith4https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5785-6489School of Natural Resources and the Environment , University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States of America; Department of Geography , University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, United States of America; Author to whom any correspondence should be addressed.Department of Geography , University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, United States of AmericaNicholas School of the Environment , Duke University, Durham, NC, United States of America; Global Health Institute , Duke University, Durham, NC, United States of AmericaDepartment of Geography , Indiana University, Bloomington, IN, United States of AmericaSchool of Natural Resources and the Environment , University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States of AmericaShort-term forecasts of vegetation activity are currently not well constrained due largely to our lack of understanding of coupled climate-vegetation dynamics mediated by complex interactions between atmospheric teleconnection patterns. Using ecoregion-scale estimates of North American vegetation activity inferred from remote sensing (1982–2015), we examined seasonal and spatial relationships between land surface phenology and the atmospheric components of five teleconnection patterns over the tropical Pacific, north Pacific, and north Atlantic. Using a set of regression experiments, we also tested for interactions among these teleconnection patterns and assessed predictability of vegetation activity solely based on knowledge of atmospheric teleconnection indices. Autumn-to-winter composites of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) were strongly correlated with start of growing season timing, especially in the Pacific Northwest. The two leading modes of north Pacific variability (the Pacific-North American, PNA, and West Pacific patterns) were significantly correlated with start of growing season timing across much of southern Canada and the upper Great Lakes. Regression models based on these Pacific teleconnections were skillful predictors of spring phenology across an east-west swath of temperate and boreal North America, between 40°N–60°N. While the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was not strongly correlated with start of growing season timing on its own, we found compelling evidence of widespread NAO-SOI and NAO-PNA interaction effects. These results suggest that knowledge of atmospheric conditions over the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans increases the predictability of North American spring phenology. A more robust consideration of the complexity of the atmospheric circulation system, including interactions across multiple ocean basins, is an important step towards accurate forecasts of vegetation activity.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa85aland surface phenologyremote sensingEl Niño Southern Oscillationteleconnection interactionsNorth Atlantic OscillationPacific-North American pattern |
| spellingShingle | Matthew P Dannenberg Erika K Wise Mark Janko Taehee Hwang W Kolby Smith Atmospheric teleconnection influence on North American land surface phenology Environmental Research Letters land surface phenology remote sensing El Niño Southern Oscillation teleconnection interactions North Atlantic Oscillation Pacific-North American pattern |
| title | Atmospheric teleconnection influence on North American land surface phenology |
| title_full | Atmospheric teleconnection influence on North American land surface phenology |
| title_fullStr | Atmospheric teleconnection influence on North American land surface phenology |
| title_full_unstemmed | Atmospheric teleconnection influence on North American land surface phenology |
| title_short | Atmospheric teleconnection influence on North American land surface phenology |
| title_sort | atmospheric teleconnection influence on north american land surface phenology |
| topic | land surface phenology remote sensing El Niño Southern Oscillation teleconnection interactions North Atlantic Oscillation Pacific-North American pattern |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa85a |
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