Expected Evolution of COVID-19 Epidemic in France for Several Combinations of Vaccination Strategies and Barrier Measures
The outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, enhanced by rapid spreads of variants, has caused a major international health crisis, with serious public health and economic consequences. An agent-based model was designed to simulate the evolution of the epidemic in France over 2021 and the first six months...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2021-12-01
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| Series: | Vaccines |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/9/12/1462 |
| _version_ | 1797500047296823296 |
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| author | Simon Pageaud Catherine Pothier Christophe Rigotti Anne Eyraud-Loisel Jean-Pierre Bertoglio Alexis Bienvenüe Nicolas Leboisne Nicolas Ponthus Romain Gauchon François Gueyffier Philippe Vanhems Jean Iwaz Stéphane Loisel Pascal Roy on behalf of the Group CovDyn (Covid Dynamics) |
| author_facet | Simon Pageaud Catherine Pothier Christophe Rigotti Anne Eyraud-Loisel Jean-Pierre Bertoglio Alexis Bienvenüe Nicolas Leboisne Nicolas Ponthus Romain Gauchon François Gueyffier Philippe Vanhems Jean Iwaz Stéphane Loisel Pascal Roy on behalf of the Group CovDyn (Covid Dynamics) |
| author_sort | Simon Pageaud |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, enhanced by rapid spreads of variants, has caused a major international health crisis, with serious public health and economic consequences. An agent-based model was designed to simulate the evolution of the epidemic in France over 2021 and the first six months of 2022. The study compares the efficiencies of four theoretical vaccination campaigns (over 6, 9, 12, and 18 months), combined with various non-pharmaceutical interventions. In France, with the emergence of the Alpha variant, without vaccination and despite strict barrier measures, more than 600,000 deaths would be observed. An efficient vaccination campaign (i.e., total coverage of the French population) over six months would divide the death toll by 10. A vaccination campaign of 12, instead of 6, months would slightly increase the disease-related mortality (+6%) but require a 77% increase in ICU bed–days. A campaign over 18 months would increase the disease-related mortality by 17% and require a 244% increase in ICU bed–days. Thus, it seems mandatory to vaccinate the highest possible percentage of the population within 12, or better yet, 9 months. The race against the epidemic and virus variants is really a matter of vaccination strategy. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T03:56:12Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-8611760bc3444ab5805d502c0c0a3f84 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2076-393X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T03:56:12Z |
| publishDate | 2021-12-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Vaccines |
| spelling | doaj.art-8611760bc3444ab5805d502c0c0a3f842023-11-23T10:54:40ZengMDPI AGVaccines2076-393X2021-12-01912146210.3390/vaccines9121462Expected Evolution of COVID-19 Epidemic in France for Several Combinations of Vaccination Strategies and Barrier MeasuresSimon Pageaud0Catherine Pothier1Christophe Rigotti2Anne Eyraud-Loisel3Jean-Pierre Bertoglio4Alexis Bienvenüe5Nicolas Leboisne6Nicolas Ponthus7Romain Gauchon8François Gueyffier9Philippe Vanhems10Jean Iwaz11Stéphane Loisel12Pascal Roy13on behalf of the Group CovDyn (Covid Dynamics)Université de Lyon, F-69000 Lyon, FranceCNRS UMR 5205, Laboratoire d’InfoRmatique en Image et Systèmes d’Information (LIRIS), F-69621 Villeurbanne, FranceCNRS UMR 5205, Laboratoire d’InfoRmatique en Image et Systèmes d’Information (LIRIS), F-69621 Villeurbanne, FranceLaboratoire de Sciences Actuarielle et Financière (LSAF), Institut de Science Financière et d’Assurances (ISFA), Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, F-69007 Lyon, FranceCNRS UMR 5509, Laboratoire de Mécanique des Fluides et d’Acoustique (LMFA), F-69130 Ecully, FranceLaboratoire de Sciences Actuarielle et Financière (LSAF), Institut de Science Financière et d’Assurances (ISFA), Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, F-69007 Lyon, FranceLaboratoire de Sciences Actuarielle et Financière (LSAF), Institut de Science Financière et d’Assurances (ISFA), Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, F-69007 Lyon, FranceÉcole Centrale de Lyon, F-69130 Lyon, FranceLaboratoire de Sciences Actuarielle et Financière (LSAF), Institut de Science Financière et d’Assurances (ISFA), Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, F-69007 Lyon, FranceUniversité de Lyon, F-69000 Lyon, FranceService d’Hygiène, Épidémiologie, Infectiovigilance et Prévention, Hôpital Edouard Herriot, Hospices Civils de Lyon, F-69003 Lyon, FranceUniversité de Lyon, F-69000 Lyon, FranceLaboratoire de Sciences Actuarielle et Financière (LSAF), Institut de Science Financière et d’Assurances (ISFA), Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, F-69007 Lyon, FranceUniversité de Lyon, F-69000 Lyon, FranceThe outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, enhanced by rapid spreads of variants, has caused a major international health crisis, with serious public health and economic consequences. An agent-based model was designed to simulate the evolution of the epidemic in France over 2021 and the first six months of 2022. The study compares the efficiencies of four theoretical vaccination campaigns (over 6, 9, 12, and 18 months), combined with various non-pharmaceutical interventions. In France, with the emergence of the Alpha variant, without vaccination and despite strict barrier measures, more than 600,000 deaths would be observed. An efficient vaccination campaign (i.e., total coverage of the French population) over six months would divide the death toll by 10. A vaccination campaign of 12, instead of 6, months would slightly increase the disease-related mortality (+6%) but require a 77% increase in ICU bed–days. A campaign over 18 months would increase the disease-related mortality by 17% and require a 244% increase in ICU bed–days. Thus, it seems mandatory to vaccinate the highest possible percentage of the population within 12, or better yet, 9 months. The race against the epidemic and virus variants is really a matter of vaccination strategy.https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/9/12/1462vaccinationCOVID-19agent-based modeldecision support techniques |
| spellingShingle | Simon Pageaud Catherine Pothier Christophe Rigotti Anne Eyraud-Loisel Jean-Pierre Bertoglio Alexis Bienvenüe Nicolas Leboisne Nicolas Ponthus Romain Gauchon François Gueyffier Philippe Vanhems Jean Iwaz Stéphane Loisel Pascal Roy on behalf of the Group CovDyn (Covid Dynamics) Expected Evolution of COVID-19 Epidemic in France for Several Combinations of Vaccination Strategies and Barrier Measures Vaccines vaccination COVID-19 agent-based model decision support techniques |
| title | Expected Evolution of COVID-19 Epidemic in France for Several Combinations of Vaccination Strategies and Barrier Measures |
| title_full | Expected Evolution of COVID-19 Epidemic in France for Several Combinations of Vaccination Strategies and Barrier Measures |
| title_fullStr | Expected Evolution of COVID-19 Epidemic in France for Several Combinations of Vaccination Strategies and Barrier Measures |
| title_full_unstemmed | Expected Evolution of COVID-19 Epidemic in France for Several Combinations of Vaccination Strategies and Barrier Measures |
| title_short | Expected Evolution of COVID-19 Epidemic in France for Several Combinations of Vaccination Strategies and Barrier Measures |
| title_sort | expected evolution of covid 19 epidemic in france for several combinations of vaccination strategies and barrier measures |
| topic | vaccination COVID-19 agent-based model decision support techniques |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/9/12/1462 |
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