The dynamics of scarlet fever in The Netherlands, 1906–1920: a historical analysis
Background. Scarlet fever, an infectious disease caused by Streptococcus pyogenes, largely disappeared in developed countries during the twentieth century. In recent years, scarlet fever is on the rise again, and there is a need for a better understanding of possible factors driving transmission. Me...
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The Royal Society
2022-11-01
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Online Access: | https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.220030 |
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author | Scott A. McDonald Maarten van Wijhe Brechje de Gier Hester Korthals Altes Bart J. M. Vlaminckx Susan Hahné Jacco Wallinga |
author_facet | Scott A. McDonald Maarten van Wijhe Brechje de Gier Hester Korthals Altes Bart J. M. Vlaminckx Susan Hahné Jacco Wallinga |
author_sort | Scott A. McDonald |
collection | DOAJ |
description | Background. Scarlet fever, an infectious disease caused by Streptococcus pyogenes, largely disappeared in developed countries during the twentieth century. In recent years, scarlet fever is on the rise again, and there is a need for a better understanding of possible factors driving transmission. Methods. Using historical case notification data from the three largest cities in The Netherlands (Amsterdam, Rotterdam and The Hague) from 1906 to 1920, we inferred the transmission rate for scarlet fever using time-series susceptible-infected-recovered (TSIR) methods. Through additive regression modelling, we investigated the contributions of meteorological variables and school term times to transmission rates. Results. Estimated transmission rates varied by city, and were highest overall for Rotterdam, the most densely populated city at that time. High temperature, seasonal precipitation levels and school term timing were associated with transmission rates, but the roles of these factors were limited and not consistent over all three cities. Conclusions. While weather factors alone can only explain a small portion of the variability in transmission rates, these results help understand the historical dynamics of scarlet fever infection in an era with less advanced sanitation and no antibiotic treatment and may offer insights into the driving factors associated with its recent resurgence. |
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institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
issn | 2054-5703 |
language | English |
last_indexed | 2024-04-09T17:37:26Z |
publishDate | 2022-11-01 |
publisher | The Royal Society |
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series | Royal Society Open Science |
spelling | doaj.art-8624dc4b938645a9972f419a55cc85f22023-04-17T10:54:42ZengThe Royal SocietyRoyal Society Open Science2054-57032022-11-0191110.1098/rsos.220030The dynamics of scarlet fever in The Netherlands, 1906–1920: a historical analysisScott A. McDonald0Maarten van Wijhe1Brechje de Gier2Hester Korthals Altes3Bart J. M. Vlaminckx4Susan Hahné5Jacco Wallinga6Centre for Infectious Disease Control, Netherlands National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The NetherlandsRoskilde University, Roskilde, DenmarkCentre for Infectious Disease Control, Netherlands National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The NetherlandsCentre for Infectious Disease Control, Netherlands National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The NetherlandsSt. Antonius Hospital, Nieuwegein, The NetherlandsCentre for Infectious Disease Control, Netherlands National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The NetherlandsCentre for Infectious Disease Control, Netherlands National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The NetherlandsBackground. Scarlet fever, an infectious disease caused by Streptococcus pyogenes, largely disappeared in developed countries during the twentieth century. In recent years, scarlet fever is on the rise again, and there is a need for a better understanding of possible factors driving transmission. Methods. Using historical case notification data from the three largest cities in The Netherlands (Amsterdam, Rotterdam and The Hague) from 1906 to 1920, we inferred the transmission rate for scarlet fever using time-series susceptible-infected-recovered (TSIR) methods. Through additive regression modelling, we investigated the contributions of meteorological variables and school term times to transmission rates. Results. Estimated transmission rates varied by city, and were highest overall for Rotterdam, the most densely populated city at that time. High temperature, seasonal precipitation levels and school term timing were associated with transmission rates, but the roles of these factors were limited and not consistent over all three cities. Conclusions. While weather factors alone can only explain a small portion of the variability in transmission rates, these results help understand the historical dynamics of scarlet fever infection in an era with less advanced sanitation and no antibiotic treatment and may offer insights into the driving factors associated with its recent resurgence.https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.220030scarlet feverS. pyogenestransmission ratehistorical analysisThe Netherlands |
spellingShingle | Scott A. McDonald Maarten van Wijhe Brechje de Gier Hester Korthals Altes Bart J. M. Vlaminckx Susan Hahné Jacco Wallinga The dynamics of scarlet fever in The Netherlands, 1906–1920: a historical analysis Royal Society Open Science scarlet fever S. pyogenes transmission rate historical analysis The Netherlands |
title | The dynamics of scarlet fever in The Netherlands, 1906–1920: a historical analysis |
title_full | The dynamics of scarlet fever in The Netherlands, 1906–1920: a historical analysis |
title_fullStr | The dynamics of scarlet fever in The Netherlands, 1906–1920: a historical analysis |
title_full_unstemmed | The dynamics of scarlet fever in The Netherlands, 1906–1920: a historical analysis |
title_short | The dynamics of scarlet fever in The Netherlands, 1906–1920: a historical analysis |
title_sort | dynamics of scarlet fever in the netherlands 1906 1920 a historical analysis |
topic | scarlet fever S. pyogenes transmission rate historical analysis The Netherlands |
url | https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.220030 |
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