The dynamics of scarlet fever in The Netherlands, 1906–1920: a historical analysis

Background. Scarlet fever, an infectious disease caused by Streptococcus pyogenes, largely disappeared in developed countries during the twentieth century. In recent years, scarlet fever is on the rise again, and there is a need for a better understanding of possible factors driving transmission. Me...

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Main Authors: Scott A. McDonald, Maarten van Wijhe, Brechje de Gier, Hester Korthals Altes, Bart J. M. Vlaminckx, Susan Hahné, Jacco Wallinga
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: The Royal Society 2022-11-01
Series:Royal Society Open Science
Subjects:
Online Access:https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.220030
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author Scott A. McDonald
Maarten van Wijhe
Brechje de Gier
Hester Korthals Altes
Bart J. M. Vlaminckx
Susan Hahné
Jacco Wallinga
author_facet Scott A. McDonald
Maarten van Wijhe
Brechje de Gier
Hester Korthals Altes
Bart J. M. Vlaminckx
Susan Hahné
Jacco Wallinga
author_sort Scott A. McDonald
collection DOAJ
description Background. Scarlet fever, an infectious disease caused by Streptococcus pyogenes, largely disappeared in developed countries during the twentieth century. In recent years, scarlet fever is on the rise again, and there is a need for a better understanding of possible factors driving transmission. Methods. Using historical case notification data from the three largest cities in The Netherlands (Amsterdam, Rotterdam and The Hague) from 1906 to 1920, we inferred the transmission rate for scarlet fever using time-series susceptible-infected-recovered (TSIR) methods. Through additive regression modelling, we investigated the contributions of meteorological variables and school term times to transmission rates. Results. Estimated transmission rates varied by city, and were highest overall for Rotterdam, the most densely populated city at that time. High temperature, seasonal precipitation levels and school term timing were associated with transmission rates, but the roles of these factors were limited and not consistent over all three cities. Conclusions. While weather factors alone can only explain a small portion of the variability in transmission rates, these results help understand the historical dynamics of scarlet fever infection in an era with less advanced sanitation and no antibiotic treatment and may offer insights into the driving factors associated with its recent resurgence.
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spelling doaj.art-8624dc4b938645a9972f419a55cc85f22023-04-17T10:54:42ZengThe Royal SocietyRoyal Society Open Science2054-57032022-11-0191110.1098/rsos.220030The dynamics of scarlet fever in The Netherlands, 1906–1920: a historical analysisScott A. McDonald0Maarten van Wijhe1Brechje de Gier2Hester Korthals Altes3Bart J. M. Vlaminckx4Susan Hahné5Jacco Wallinga6Centre for Infectious Disease Control, Netherlands National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The NetherlandsRoskilde University, Roskilde, DenmarkCentre for Infectious Disease Control, Netherlands National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The NetherlandsCentre for Infectious Disease Control, Netherlands National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The NetherlandsSt. Antonius Hospital, Nieuwegein, The NetherlandsCentre for Infectious Disease Control, Netherlands National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The NetherlandsCentre for Infectious Disease Control, Netherlands National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The NetherlandsBackground. Scarlet fever, an infectious disease caused by Streptococcus pyogenes, largely disappeared in developed countries during the twentieth century. In recent years, scarlet fever is on the rise again, and there is a need for a better understanding of possible factors driving transmission. Methods. Using historical case notification data from the three largest cities in The Netherlands (Amsterdam, Rotterdam and The Hague) from 1906 to 1920, we inferred the transmission rate for scarlet fever using time-series susceptible-infected-recovered (TSIR) methods. Through additive regression modelling, we investigated the contributions of meteorological variables and school term times to transmission rates. Results. Estimated transmission rates varied by city, and were highest overall for Rotterdam, the most densely populated city at that time. High temperature, seasonal precipitation levels and school term timing were associated with transmission rates, but the roles of these factors were limited and not consistent over all three cities. Conclusions. While weather factors alone can only explain a small portion of the variability in transmission rates, these results help understand the historical dynamics of scarlet fever infection in an era with less advanced sanitation and no antibiotic treatment and may offer insights into the driving factors associated with its recent resurgence.https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.220030scarlet feverS. pyogenestransmission ratehistorical analysisThe Netherlands
spellingShingle Scott A. McDonald
Maarten van Wijhe
Brechje de Gier
Hester Korthals Altes
Bart J. M. Vlaminckx
Susan Hahné
Jacco Wallinga
The dynamics of scarlet fever in The Netherlands, 1906–1920: a historical analysis
Royal Society Open Science
scarlet fever
S. pyogenes
transmission rate
historical analysis
The Netherlands
title The dynamics of scarlet fever in The Netherlands, 1906–1920: a historical analysis
title_full The dynamics of scarlet fever in The Netherlands, 1906–1920: a historical analysis
title_fullStr The dynamics of scarlet fever in The Netherlands, 1906–1920: a historical analysis
title_full_unstemmed The dynamics of scarlet fever in The Netherlands, 1906–1920: a historical analysis
title_short The dynamics of scarlet fever in The Netherlands, 1906–1920: a historical analysis
title_sort dynamics of scarlet fever in the netherlands 1906 1920 a historical analysis
topic scarlet fever
S. pyogenes
transmission rate
historical analysis
The Netherlands
url https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.220030
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