Fuzzy First-Order Transition-Rules-Trained Hybrid Forecasting System for Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasts
Due to the ever-increasing environmental pollution becoming progressively more serious, wind power has been widely used around the world in recent years. However, because of their randomness and intermittence, the accurate prediction of wind speeds is difficult. To address this problem, this article...
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| Format: | Article |
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MDPI AG
2020-06-01
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| Series: | Energies |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/13/3332 |
| _version_ | 1797563735088300032 |
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| author | Yulong Bai Lihong Tang Manhong Fan Xiaoyan Ma Yang Yang |
| author_facet | Yulong Bai Lihong Tang Manhong Fan Xiaoyan Ma Yang Yang |
| author_sort | Yulong Bai |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Due to the ever-increasing environmental pollution becoming progressively more serious, wind power has been widely used around the world in recent years. However, because of their randomness and intermittence, the accurate prediction of wind speeds is difficult. To address this problem, this article proposes a hybrid system for short-wind-speed prediction. The system combines the autoregressive differential moving average (ARIMA) model with a three-layer feedforward neural network. An ARIMA model was employed to predict linear patterns in series, while a feedforward neural network was used to predict the nonlinear patterns in series. To improve accuracy of the predictions, the neural network models were trained by using two methods: first-order transition rules and fuzzy first-order transition rules. The Levenberg–Marquardt (LM) algorithm was applied to update the weight and deviation of each layer of neural network. The dominance matrix method was employed to calculate the weight of the hybrid system, which was used to establish the linear hybrid system. To evaluate the performance, three statistical indices were used: the mean square error (MSE), the root mean square error (RMSE) and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). A set of Lorenz-63 simulated values and two datasets collected from different wind fields in Qilian County, Qinghai Province, China, were utilized as to perform a comparative study. The results show the following: (a) compared with the neural network trained by first-order transition rules, the prediction accuracy of the neural network trained by the fuzzy first-order transition rules was higher; (b) the proposed hybrid system attains superior performance compared with a single model; and (c) the proposed hybrid system balances the forecast accuracy and convergence speed simultaneously during forecasting. Therefore, it was feasible to apply the hybrid model to the prediction of real time-series. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T18:47:36Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-863a45f38ff24f39824f7df2c8ff5343 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1996-1073 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T18:47:36Z |
| publishDate | 2020-06-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Energies |
| spelling | doaj.art-863a45f38ff24f39824f7df2c8ff53432023-11-20T05:23:11ZengMDPI AGEnergies1996-10732020-06-011313333210.3390/en13133332Fuzzy First-Order Transition-Rules-Trained Hybrid Forecasting System for Short-Term Wind Speed ForecastsYulong Bai0Lihong Tang1Manhong Fan2Xiaoyan Ma3Yang Yang4College of Physics and Electrical Engineering, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, ChinaCollege of Physics and Electrical Engineering, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, ChinaCollege of Physics and Electrical Engineering, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, ChinaCollege of Physics and Electrical Engineering, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, ChinaCollege of Physics and Electrical Engineering, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, ChinaDue to the ever-increasing environmental pollution becoming progressively more serious, wind power has been widely used around the world in recent years. However, because of their randomness and intermittence, the accurate prediction of wind speeds is difficult. To address this problem, this article proposes a hybrid system for short-wind-speed prediction. The system combines the autoregressive differential moving average (ARIMA) model with a three-layer feedforward neural network. An ARIMA model was employed to predict linear patterns in series, while a feedforward neural network was used to predict the nonlinear patterns in series. To improve accuracy of the predictions, the neural network models were trained by using two methods: first-order transition rules and fuzzy first-order transition rules. The Levenberg–Marquardt (LM) algorithm was applied to update the weight and deviation of each layer of neural network. The dominance matrix method was employed to calculate the weight of the hybrid system, which was used to establish the linear hybrid system. To evaluate the performance, three statistical indices were used: the mean square error (MSE), the root mean square error (RMSE) and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). A set of Lorenz-63 simulated values and two datasets collected from different wind fields in Qilian County, Qinghai Province, China, were utilized as to perform a comparative study. The results show the following: (a) compared with the neural network trained by first-order transition rules, the prediction accuracy of the neural network trained by the fuzzy first-order transition rules was higher; (b) the proposed hybrid system attains superior performance compared with a single model; and (c) the proposed hybrid system balances the forecast accuracy and convergence speed simultaneously during forecasting. Therefore, it was feasible to apply the hybrid model to the prediction of real time-series.https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/13/3332wind speed forecastingauto regressive integrated moving averaged (ARIMA)first-order transition rules (FOTR)fuzzy first-order transition rules (FFOTR)hybrid system |
| spellingShingle | Yulong Bai Lihong Tang Manhong Fan Xiaoyan Ma Yang Yang Fuzzy First-Order Transition-Rules-Trained Hybrid Forecasting System for Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasts Energies wind speed forecasting auto regressive integrated moving averaged (ARIMA) first-order transition rules (FOTR) fuzzy first-order transition rules (FFOTR) hybrid system |
| title | Fuzzy First-Order Transition-Rules-Trained Hybrid Forecasting System for Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasts |
| title_full | Fuzzy First-Order Transition-Rules-Trained Hybrid Forecasting System for Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasts |
| title_fullStr | Fuzzy First-Order Transition-Rules-Trained Hybrid Forecasting System for Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasts |
| title_full_unstemmed | Fuzzy First-Order Transition-Rules-Trained Hybrid Forecasting System for Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasts |
| title_short | Fuzzy First-Order Transition-Rules-Trained Hybrid Forecasting System for Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasts |
| title_sort | fuzzy first order transition rules trained hybrid forecasting system for short term wind speed forecasts |
| topic | wind speed forecasting auto regressive integrated moving averaged (ARIMA) first-order transition rules (FOTR) fuzzy first-order transition rules (FFOTR) hybrid system |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/13/3332 |
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