Impact of Extreme climatic events on Production risk of Winter wheat in Climate Change Condition (Case study: Khorasan Razavi Province)
In recent years, there is much more attention to extreme climatic events. Also, it is proved that changes in intensity and frequency of these events have more destroyer effects on the human health, social and natural systems that change in the mean climatic situation. The objective of this study was...
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| Format: | Article |
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University of Sistan and Baluchestan
2018-10-01
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| Series: | مخاطرات محیط طبیعی |
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| Online Access: | https://jneh.usb.ac.ir/article_3344_15eda5025c15e15303cadce8475d453d.pdf |
| _version_ | 1827927234289074176 |
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| author | Maryam Erfanian Hossein Ansari Amin Alizadeh Mohammad Banayan Aval |
| author_facet | Maryam Erfanian Hossein Ansari Amin Alizadeh Mohammad Banayan Aval |
| author_sort | Maryam Erfanian |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In recent years, there is much more attention to extreme climatic events. Also, it is proved that changes in intensity and frequency of these events have more destroyer effects on the human health, social and natural systems that change in the mean climatic situation. The objective of this study was a recognition of the effective extreme climatic indexes on winter wheat yield in Khorasan Razavi province. So, daily maximum, minimum temperature and rainfall data of 20 stations of this region were used in the 1982-2011 period. Also, the daily data of CORDEX project in the 2021-2050 with RCP2.6 and RCP 8.5 were analyzed. The yield was simulated with the calibrated and evaluated a model of AquaCrop. Mean yield in the past, future with RCP2.6 and RCP 8.5 were 3.79, 4.88 and 5.24 tons per hectare, respectively. Increase in temperature and CO2 concentration was the reason for this increase in yield. Results of regression analysis showed that in all periods, effective extreme indexes were temperature-based. The indexes of a number of frost days and days with a minimum temperature lower than the minimum air temperature in the stem period’s threshold were effective in all periods. The production risk was calculated based on probability and the impact of extreme climatic indexes. Results showed that the northern and central regions of the Khorasan Razavi province have the high to moderate and the southern parts have low risks. Also, it is concluded that the percent of low to very low risk was decreased and moderate to high risk was increased in the future. This means, however, the yield will increase, but the regions with low risk of extreme events will be decreased. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T05:48:58Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-8663ecb4e4dc4f48a59682b02bd04211 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2676-4377 2676-4385 |
| language | fas |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T05:48:58Z |
| publishDate | 2018-10-01 |
| publisher | University of Sistan and Baluchestan |
| record_format | Article |
| series | مخاطرات محیط طبیعی |
| spelling | doaj.art-8663ecb4e4dc4f48a59682b02bd042112023-06-13T19:53:33ZfasUniversity of Sistan and Baluchestanمخاطرات محیط طبیعی2676-43772676-43852018-10-0171717519410.22111/jneh.2017.33443344Impact of Extreme climatic events on Production risk of Winter wheat in Climate Change Condition (Case study: Khorasan Razavi Province)Maryam Erfanian0Hossein Ansari1Amin Alizadeh2Mohammad Banayan Aval3Ph. D student of irrigation and drainage, Water Engineering Department, Ferdowsi University of MashhadProfessor of irrigation and drainage, Water Engineering Department, Ferdowsi University of MashhadProfessor of irrigation and drainage, Water Engineering Department, Ferdowsi University of MashhadProfessor of Agriculture Department, Ferdowsi University of MashhadIn recent years, there is much more attention to extreme climatic events. Also, it is proved that changes in intensity and frequency of these events have more destroyer effects on the human health, social and natural systems that change in the mean climatic situation. The objective of this study was a recognition of the effective extreme climatic indexes on winter wheat yield in Khorasan Razavi province. So, daily maximum, minimum temperature and rainfall data of 20 stations of this region were used in the 1982-2011 period. Also, the daily data of CORDEX project in the 2021-2050 with RCP2.6 and RCP 8.5 were analyzed. The yield was simulated with the calibrated and evaluated a model of AquaCrop. Mean yield in the past, future with RCP2.6 and RCP 8.5 were 3.79, 4.88 and 5.24 tons per hectare, respectively. Increase in temperature and CO2 concentration was the reason for this increase in yield. Results of regression analysis showed that in all periods, effective extreme indexes were temperature-based. The indexes of a number of frost days and days with a minimum temperature lower than the minimum air temperature in the stem period’s threshold were effective in all periods. The production risk was calculated based on probability and the impact of extreme climatic indexes. Results showed that the northern and central regions of the Khorasan Razavi province have the high to moderate and the southern parts have low risks. Also, it is concluded that the percent of low to very low risk was decreased and moderate to high risk was increased in the future. This means, however, the yield will increase, but the regions with low risk of extreme events will be decreased.https://jneh.usb.ac.ir/article_3344_15eda5025c15e15303cadce8475d453d.pdfclimate changeriskextreme climatic indexwheataquacrop |
| spellingShingle | Maryam Erfanian Hossein Ansari Amin Alizadeh Mohammad Banayan Aval Impact of Extreme climatic events on Production risk of Winter wheat in Climate Change Condition (Case study: Khorasan Razavi Province) مخاطرات محیط طبیعی climate change risk extreme climatic index wheat aquacrop |
| title | Impact of Extreme climatic events on Production risk of Winter wheat in Climate Change Condition (Case study: Khorasan Razavi Province) |
| title_full | Impact of Extreme climatic events on Production risk of Winter wheat in Climate Change Condition (Case study: Khorasan Razavi Province) |
| title_fullStr | Impact of Extreme climatic events on Production risk of Winter wheat in Climate Change Condition (Case study: Khorasan Razavi Province) |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impact of Extreme climatic events on Production risk of Winter wheat in Climate Change Condition (Case study: Khorasan Razavi Province) |
| title_short | Impact of Extreme climatic events on Production risk of Winter wheat in Climate Change Condition (Case study: Khorasan Razavi Province) |
| title_sort | impact of extreme climatic events on production risk of winter wheat in climate change condition case study khorasan razavi province |
| topic | climate change risk extreme climatic index wheat aquacrop |
| url | https://jneh.usb.ac.ir/article_3344_15eda5025c15e15303cadce8475d453d.pdf |
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