Analyzing Congestion Propagation on Urban Rail Transit Oversaturated Conditions: A Framework Based on SIR Epidemic Model
Abstract Simulating the congestion propagation of urban rail transit system is challenging, especially under oversaturated conditions. This paper presents a congestion propagation model based on SIR (susceptible, infected, recovered) epidemic model for capturing the congestion prorogation process th...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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SpringerOpen
2018-08-01
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| Series: | Urban Rail Transit |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40864-018-0084-6 |
| _version_ | 1818061997466451968 |
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| author | Ziling Zeng Taixun Li |
| author_facet | Ziling Zeng Taixun Li |
| author_sort | Ziling Zeng |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Simulating the congestion propagation of urban rail transit system is challenging, especially under oversaturated conditions. This paper presents a congestion propagation model based on SIR (susceptible, infected, recovered) epidemic model for capturing the congestion prorogation process through formalizing the propagation by a congestion susceptibility recovery process. In addition, as congestion propagation is the key parameter in the congestion propagation model, a model for calculating congestion propagation rate is constructed. A gray system model is also introduced to quantify the propagation rate under the joint effect of six influential factors: passenger flow, train headway, passenger transfer convenience, time of congestion occurring, initial congested station and station capacity. A numerical example is used to illustrate the congestion propagation process and to demonstrate the improvements after taking corresponding measures. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-10T13:57:12Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-86784d2a145744bcb8523800b0edf06c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2199-6687 2199-6679 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-10T13:57:12Z |
| publishDate | 2018-08-01 |
| publisher | SpringerOpen |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Urban Rail Transit |
| spelling | doaj.art-86784d2a145744bcb8523800b0edf06c2022-12-22T01:45:55ZengSpringerOpenUrban Rail Transit2199-66872199-66792018-08-014313014010.1007/s40864-018-0084-6Analyzing Congestion Propagation on Urban Rail Transit Oversaturated Conditions: A Framework Based on SIR Epidemic ModelZiling Zeng0Taixun Li1School of Traffic and Transportation, Beijing Jiaotong UniversitySchool of Traffic and Transportation, Beijing Jiaotong UniversityAbstract Simulating the congestion propagation of urban rail transit system is challenging, especially under oversaturated conditions. This paper presents a congestion propagation model based on SIR (susceptible, infected, recovered) epidemic model for capturing the congestion prorogation process through formalizing the propagation by a congestion susceptibility recovery process. In addition, as congestion propagation is the key parameter in the congestion propagation model, a model for calculating congestion propagation rate is constructed. A gray system model is also introduced to quantify the propagation rate under the joint effect of six influential factors: passenger flow, train headway, passenger transfer convenience, time of congestion occurring, initial congested station and station capacity. A numerical example is used to illustrate the congestion propagation process and to demonstrate the improvements after taking corresponding measures.http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40864-018-0084-6SIR epidemic modelOversaturated conditionsCongestion propagation modelCongestion propagation rateGray system model |
| spellingShingle | Ziling Zeng Taixun Li Analyzing Congestion Propagation on Urban Rail Transit Oversaturated Conditions: A Framework Based on SIR Epidemic Model Urban Rail Transit SIR epidemic model Oversaturated conditions Congestion propagation model Congestion propagation rate Gray system model |
| title | Analyzing Congestion Propagation on Urban Rail Transit Oversaturated Conditions: A Framework Based on SIR Epidemic Model |
| title_full | Analyzing Congestion Propagation on Urban Rail Transit Oversaturated Conditions: A Framework Based on SIR Epidemic Model |
| title_fullStr | Analyzing Congestion Propagation on Urban Rail Transit Oversaturated Conditions: A Framework Based on SIR Epidemic Model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Analyzing Congestion Propagation on Urban Rail Transit Oversaturated Conditions: A Framework Based on SIR Epidemic Model |
| title_short | Analyzing Congestion Propagation on Urban Rail Transit Oversaturated Conditions: A Framework Based on SIR Epidemic Model |
| title_sort | analyzing congestion propagation on urban rail transit oversaturated conditions a framework based on sir epidemic model |
| topic | SIR epidemic model Oversaturated conditions Congestion propagation model Congestion propagation rate Gray system model |
| url | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40864-018-0084-6 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT zilingzeng analyzingcongestionpropagationonurbanrailtransitoversaturatedconditionsaframeworkbasedonsirepidemicmodel AT taixunli analyzingcongestionpropagationonurbanrailtransitoversaturatedconditionsaframeworkbasedonsirepidemicmodel |