Russian aggression against Ukraine and the changes in European Union countries’ macroeconomic situation: Do energy intensity and energy dependence matter?
The study aims to assess whether there are significant differences among EU member states regarding the Russo-Ukrainian-conflict-driven changes in macroeconomic indicators and whether these differences are linked to the country’s energy vulnerability. Applying k-means clustering, three country group...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Sciendo
2023-12-01
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| Series: | Economics and Business Review |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.18559/ebr.2023.4.1073 |
| _version_ | 1827370194143543296 |
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| author | Wielechowski Michał Czech Katarzyna |
| author_facet | Wielechowski Michał Czech Katarzyna |
| author_sort | Wielechowski Michał |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The study aims to assess whether there are significant differences among EU member states regarding the Russo-Ukrainian-conflict-driven changes in macroeconomic indicators and whether these differences are linked to the country’s energy vulnerability. Applying k-means clustering, three country groups are distinguished, similar with regard to their energy intensity, energy dependence (including dependence on Russian gas), and household budgets’ exposure to energy prices. Based on the Kruskal-Wallis and Wilcoxon pairwise comparison tests, the study reveals statistically significant differences among the distinguished country clusters in the level of inflation and interest rates at the time of this conflict as well as differences in the 2022 forecasts’ changes for GDP, inflation, budget balance and unemployment. The results indicate that EU economies characterised by the most significant energy vulnerability economically suffer the most in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T10:10:55Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-86fb69a3a19e4557a397ccbd499800c6 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2450-0097 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T10:10:55Z |
| publishDate | 2023-12-01 |
| publisher | Sciendo |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Economics and Business Review |
| spelling | doaj.art-86fb69a3a19e4557a397ccbd499800c62024-01-29T08:49:25ZengSciendoEconomics and Business Review2450-00972023-12-0194749510.18559/ebr.2023.4.1073Russian aggression against Ukraine and the changes in European Union countries’ macroeconomic situation: Do energy intensity and energy dependence matter?Wielechowski Michał0Czech Katarzyna11Warsaw University of Life Sciences, Institute of Economics and Finance, Department of Econometrics and Statistics, Nowoursynowska 166, 02-787Warsaw, Poland2Warsaw University of Life Sciences, Institute of Economics and Finance, Department of Econometrics and Statistics, Nowoursynowska 166, 02-787Warsaw, PolandThe study aims to assess whether there are significant differences among EU member states regarding the Russo-Ukrainian-conflict-driven changes in macroeconomic indicators and whether these differences are linked to the country’s energy vulnerability. Applying k-means clustering, three country groups are distinguished, similar with regard to their energy intensity, energy dependence (including dependence on Russian gas), and household budgets’ exposure to energy prices. Based on the Kruskal-Wallis and Wilcoxon pairwise comparison tests, the study reveals statistically significant differences among the distinguished country clusters in the level of inflation and interest rates at the time of this conflict as well as differences in the 2022 forecasts’ changes for GDP, inflation, budget balance and unemployment. The results indicate that EU economies characterised by the most significant energy vulnerability economically suffer the most in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.https://doi.org/10.18559/ebr.2023.4.1073energy intensityenergy dependencenatural gasrussian aggression against ukraineeuropean union member statesmacroeconomic indicatorsclusteringq43e31e43e01h62e24 |
| spellingShingle | Wielechowski Michał Czech Katarzyna Russian aggression against Ukraine and the changes in European Union countries’ macroeconomic situation: Do energy intensity and energy dependence matter? Economics and Business Review energy intensity energy dependence natural gas russian aggression against ukraine european union member states macroeconomic indicators clustering q43 e31 e43 e01 h62 e24 |
| title | Russian aggression against Ukraine and the changes in European Union countries’ macroeconomic situation: Do energy intensity and energy dependence matter? |
| title_full | Russian aggression against Ukraine and the changes in European Union countries’ macroeconomic situation: Do energy intensity and energy dependence matter? |
| title_fullStr | Russian aggression against Ukraine and the changes in European Union countries’ macroeconomic situation: Do energy intensity and energy dependence matter? |
| title_full_unstemmed | Russian aggression against Ukraine and the changes in European Union countries’ macroeconomic situation: Do energy intensity and energy dependence matter? |
| title_short | Russian aggression against Ukraine and the changes in European Union countries’ macroeconomic situation: Do energy intensity and energy dependence matter? |
| title_sort | russian aggression against ukraine and the changes in european union countries macroeconomic situation do energy intensity and energy dependence matter |
| topic | energy intensity energy dependence natural gas russian aggression against ukraine european union member states macroeconomic indicators clustering q43 e31 e43 e01 h62 e24 |
| url | https://doi.org/10.18559/ebr.2023.4.1073 |
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