Arctic Stratosphere Circulation Changes in the 21st Century in Simulations of INM CM5
Simulations of Institute of Numerical Mathematics (INM) coupled climate model 5th version for the period from 2015 to 2100 under moderate (SSP2-4.5) and severe (SSP5-8.5) scenarios of greenhouse gases growth are analyzed to investigate changes of Arctic polar stratospheric vortex, planetary wave pro...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2021-12-01
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| Series: | Atmosphere |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/13/1/25 |
| _version_ | 1797495890752045056 |
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| author | Pavel N. Vargin Sergey V. Kostrykin Evgeni M. Volodin Alexander I. Pogoreltsev Ke Wei |
| author_facet | Pavel N. Vargin Sergey V. Kostrykin Evgeni M. Volodin Alexander I. Pogoreltsev Ke Wei |
| author_sort | Pavel N. Vargin |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Simulations of Institute of Numerical Mathematics (INM) coupled climate model 5th version for the period from 2015 to 2100 under moderate (SSP2-4.5) and severe (SSP5-8.5) scenarios of greenhouse gases growth are analyzed to investigate changes of Arctic polar stratospheric vortex, planetary wave propagation, Sudden Stratospheric Warming frequency, Final Warming dates, and meridional circulation. Strengthening of wave activity propagation and a stationary planetary wave number 1 in the middle and upper stratosphere, acceleration of meridional circulation, an increase of winter mean polar stratospheric volume (Vpsc) and strengthening of Arctic stratosphere interannual variability after the middle of 21st century, especially under a severe scenario, were revealed. March monthly values of Vpsc in some winters could be about two times more than observed ones in the Arctic stratosphere in the spring of 2011 and 2020, which in turn could lead to large ozone layer destruction. Composite analysis shows that “warm” winters with the least winter mean Vpsc values are characterized by strengthening of wave activity propagation from the troposphere into the stratosphere in December but weaker propagation in January–February in comparison with winters having the largest Vpsc values. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T01:56:57Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-8713833b9a8343cda2465fab1e1d8c65 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4433 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T01:56:57Z |
| publishDate | 2021-12-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmosphere |
| spelling | doaj.art-8713833b9a8343cda2465fab1e1d8c652023-11-23T12:55:54ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332021-12-011312510.3390/atmos13010025Arctic Stratosphere Circulation Changes in the 21st Century in Simulations of INM CM5Pavel N. Vargin0Sergey V. Kostrykin1Evgeni M. Volodin2Alexander I. Pogoreltsev3Ke Wei4Central Aerological Observatory, Pervomayskay Street 3, 141700 Dolgoprudny, RussiaObukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Science, Pyzhevskiy Per. 3, 119017 Moscow, RussiaMarchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Science, Gubkina Street 8, 119333 Moscow, RussiaDepartment of Meteorological Forecasting, Russian State Hydrometeorological University, Voronezhskaya Street 79, 192027 Saint-Petersburg, RussiaCenter for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, ChinaSimulations of Institute of Numerical Mathematics (INM) coupled climate model 5th version for the period from 2015 to 2100 under moderate (SSP2-4.5) and severe (SSP5-8.5) scenarios of greenhouse gases growth are analyzed to investigate changes of Arctic polar stratospheric vortex, planetary wave propagation, Sudden Stratospheric Warming frequency, Final Warming dates, and meridional circulation. Strengthening of wave activity propagation and a stationary planetary wave number 1 in the middle and upper stratosphere, acceleration of meridional circulation, an increase of winter mean polar stratospheric volume (Vpsc) and strengthening of Arctic stratosphere interannual variability after the middle of 21st century, especially under a severe scenario, were revealed. March monthly values of Vpsc in some winters could be about two times more than observed ones in the Arctic stratosphere in the spring of 2011 and 2020, which in turn could lead to large ozone layer destruction. Composite analysis shows that “warm” winters with the least winter mean Vpsc values are characterized by strengthening of wave activity propagation from the troposphere into the stratosphere in December but weaker propagation in January–February in comparison with winters having the largest Vpsc values.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/13/1/25climate changeclimate modelingstratospheric dynamicsplanetary wavespolar stratospheric cloudsozone layer |
| spellingShingle | Pavel N. Vargin Sergey V. Kostrykin Evgeni M. Volodin Alexander I. Pogoreltsev Ke Wei Arctic Stratosphere Circulation Changes in the 21st Century in Simulations of INM CM5 Atmosphere climate change climate modeling stratospheric dynamics planetary waves polar stratospheric clouds ozone layer |
| title | Arctic Stratosphere Circulation Changes in the 21st Century in Simulations of INM CM5 |
| title_full | Arctic Stratosphere Circulation Changes in the 21st Century in Simulations of INM CM5 |
| title_fullStr | Arctic Stratosphere Circulation Changes in the 21st Century in Simulations of INM CM5 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Arctic Stratosphere Circulation Changes in the 21st Century in Simulations of INM CM5 |
| title_short | Arctic Stratosphere Circulation Changes in the 21st Century in Simulations of INM CM5 |
| title_sort | arctic stratosphere circulation changes in the 21st century in simulations of inm cm5 |
| topic | climate change climate modeling stratospheric dynamics planetary waves polar stratospheric clouds ozone layer |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/13/1/25 |
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