Tailoring seasonal climate forecasts for hydropower operations
Integration of seasonal precipitation forecasts into water resources operations and planning is practically nonexistent, even in regions of scarcity. This is often attributable to water manager's tendency to act in a risk averse manner, preferring to avoid consequences of poor forecasts, at the...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2011-04-01
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| Series: | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/15/1355/2011/hess-15-1355-2011.pdf |
| _version_ | 1828745231362686976 |
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| author | P. Block |
| author_facet | P. Block |
| author_sort | P. Block |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Integration of seasonal precipitation forecasts into water resources operations and planning is practically nonexistent, even in regions of scarcity. This is often attributable to water manager's tendency to act in a risk averse manner, preferring to avoid consequences of poor forecasts, at the expense of unrealized benefits. Convincing demonstrations of forecast value are therefore desirable to support assimilation into practice. A dynamically linked system, including forecast, rainfall-runoff, and hydropower models, is applied to the upper Blue Nile basin in Ethiopia to compare benefits and reliability generated by actual forecasts against a climatology-based approach, commonly practiced in most water resources systems. Processing one hundred decadal sequences demonstrates superior forecast-based benefits in 68 cases, a respectable advancement, however benefits in a few forecast-based sequences are noticeably low, likely to dissuade manager's adoption. A hydropower sensitivity test reveals a propensity toward poor-decision making when forecasts over-predict wet conditions. Tailoring the precipitation forecast to highlight critical dry forecasts minimizes this inclination, resulting in 97% of the sequences favoring the forecast-based approach. Considering managerial risk preferences for the system, even risk-averse actions, if coupled with forecasts, exhibit superior benefits and reliability compared with risk-taking tendencies conditioned on climatology. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-14T03:58:13Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-871fa1a5668d4551843b8e147dec89ca |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1027-5606 1607-7938 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-14T03:58:13Z |
| publishDate | 2011-04-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-871fa1a5668d4551843b8e147dec89ca2022-12-22T02:13:40ZengCopernicus PublicationsHydrology and Earth System Sciences1027-56061607-79382011-04-011541355136810.5194/hess-15-1355-2011Tailoring seasonal climate forecasts for hydropower operationsP. BlockIntegration of seasonal precipitation forecasts into water resources operations and planning is practically nonexistent, even in regions of scarcity. This is often attributable to water manager's tendency to act in a risk averse manner, preferring to avoid consequences of poor forecasts, at the expense of unrealized benefits. Convincing demonstrations of forecast value are therefore desirable to support assimilation into practice. A dynamically linked system, including forecast, rainfall-runoff, and hydropower models, is applied to the upper Blue Nile basin in Ethiopia to compare benefits and reliability generated by actual forecasts against a climatology-based approach, commonly practiced in most water resources systems. Processing one hundred decadal sequences demonstrates superior forecast-based benefits in 68 cases, a respectable advancement, however benefits in a few forecast-based sequences are noticeably low, likely to dissuade manager's adoption. A hydropower sensitivity test reveals a propensity toward poor-decision making when forecasts over-predict wet conditions. Tailoring the precipitation forecast to highlight critical dry forecasts minimizes this inclination, resulting in 97% of the sequences favoring the forecast-based approach. Considering managerial risk preferences for the system, even risk-averse actions, if coupled with forecasts, exhibit superior benefits and reliability compared with risk-taking tendencies conditioned on climatology.http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/15/1355/2011/hess-15-1355-2011.pdf |
| spellingShingle | P. Block Tailoring seasonal climate forecasts for hydropower operations Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| title | Tailoring seasonal climate forecasts for hydropower operations |
| title_full | Tailoring seasonal climate forecasts for hydropower operations |
| title_fullStr | Tailoring seasonal climate forecasts for hydropower operations |
| title_full_unstemmed | Tailoring seasonal climate forecasts for hydropower operations |
| title_short | Tailoring seasonal climate forecasts for hydropower operations |
| title_sort | tailoring seasonal climate forecasts for hydropower operations |
| url | http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/15/1355/2011/hess-15-1355-2011.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT pblock tailoringseasonalclimateforecastsforhydropoweroperations |