Estimating the Incidence of SARS-CoV-2 Cases in Belize Based on Mortality Rate
Developing countries such as Belize have been facing profound challenges in their quest to effectively track cases of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and contain the pandemic within their own territory. We assume that at the heights of a COVID-19 wave the number of daily reported cases are subst...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Springer
2021-06-01
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| Series: | Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Journal |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.atlantis-press.com/article/125957737/view |
| _version_ | 1817978091198218240 |
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| author | Paul Morgan Cyleen Morgan Chieh-Wen Ed Hsu Biru Yang |
| author_facet | Paul Morgan Cyleen Morgan Chieh-Wen Ed Hsu Biru Yang |
| author_sort | Paul Morgan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Developing countries such as Belize have been facing profound challenges in their quest to effectively track cases of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and contain the pandemic within their own territory. We assume that at the heights of a COVID-19 wave the number of daily reported cases are substantially lower (often under-reported) than the true number of cases that exist and are reported on a daily basis. Here, we attempt to quantitatively derive the number of daily undetected cases of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Belize. We also used the Markov’s Model to correlate the current mortality rate in Belize with the reported incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections in Belize. We also proposed a differential mathematical model for estimating a dynamic mortality rate. Finally, we demonstrated the ability to estimate the wavelength and amplitude of a COVID-19 wave. Nations worldwide can anticipate two COVID-19 waves annually with an average of 3 months apart. How vaccines and emerging variants potentially skew the amplitude of a COVID-19 wave requires further inquiry. Our findings are therefore relevant to all countries in their quest to develop and implement swift and versatile national healthcare response measures. The present study, however, is particularly relevant to the countries with underdeveloped healthcare systems. These countries often experience economic and resource challenges around building an effective COVID-19 surveillance system to test and report daily COVID-19 cases. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T22:24:55Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-872da9284d0e49b68373c6f8d80a3aec |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2590-3349 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T22:24:55Z |
| publishDate | 2021-06-01 |
| publisher | Springer |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Journal |
| spelling | doaj.art-872da9284d0e49b68373c6f8d80a3aec2022-12-22T02:27:05ZengSpringerDr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Journal2590-33492021-06-013310.2991/dsahmj.k.210531.001Estimating the Incidence of SARS-CoV-2 Cases in Belize Based on Mortality RatePaul MorganCyleen MorganChieh-Wen Ed HsuBiru YangDeveloping countries such as Belize have been facing profound challenges in their quest to effectively track cases of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and contain the pandemic within their own territory. We assume that at the heights of a COVID-19 wave the number of daily reported cases are substantially lower (often under-reported) than the true number of cases that exist and are reported on a daily basis. Here, we attempt to quantitatively derive the number of daily undetected cases of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Belize. We also used the Markov’s Model to correlate the current mortality rate in Belize with the reported incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections in Belize. We also proposed a differential mathematical model for estimating a dynamic mortality rate. Finally, we demonstrated the ability to estimate the wavelength and amplitude of a COVID-19 wave. Nations worldwide can anticipate two COVID-19 waves annually with an average of 3 months apart. How vaccines and emerging variants potentially skew the amplitude of a COVID-19 wave requires further inquiry. Our findings are therefore relevant to all countries in their quest to develop and implement swift and versatile national healthcare response measures. The present study, however, is particularly relevant to the countries with underdeveloped healthcare systems. These countries often experience economic and resource challenges around building an effective COVID-19 surveillance system to test and report daily COVID-19 cases.https://www.atlantis-press.com/article/125957737/viewCOVID-19Markov modelmortality ratewavelengthundetected casesBelize |
| spellingShingle | Paul Morgan Cyleen Morgan Chieh-Wen Ed Hsu Biru Yang Estimating the Incidence of SARS-CoV-2 Cases in Belize Based on Mortality Rate Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Journal COVID-19 Markov model mortality rate wavelength undetected cases Belize |
| title | Estimating the Incidence of SARS-CoV-2 Cases in Belize Based on Mortality Rate |
| title_full | Estimating the Incidence of SARS-CoV-2 Cases in Belize Based on Mortality Rate |
| title_fullStr | Estimating the Incidence of SARS-CoV-2 Cases in Belize Based on Mortality Rate |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimating the Incidence of SARS-CoV-2 Cases in Belize Based on Mortality Rate |
| title_short | Estimating the Incidence of SARS-CoV-2 Cases in Belize Based on Mortality Rate |
| title_sort | estimating the incidence of sars cov 2 cases in belize based on mortality rate |
| topic | COVID-19 Markov model mortality rate wavelength undetected cases Belize |
| url | https://www.atlantis-press.com/article/125957737/view |
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