Transmission dynamics and control strategies of COVID-19: a modelling study
In this paper a mathematical model is proposed, which incorporates quarantine and hospitalization to assess the community impact of social distancing and face mask among the susceptible population. The model parameters are estimated and fitted to the model with the use of laboratory confirmed COVID...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Academician Ye.A. Buketov Karaganda University
2021-06-01
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| Series: | Қарағанды университетінің хабаршысы. Математика сериясы |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://mathematics-vestnik.ksu.kz/index.php/mathematics-vestnik/article/view/420 |
| _version_ | 1827395737314394112 |
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| author | U.T. Mustapha E. Hincal A. Yusuf S. Qureshi T. Sanlidag S.M. Muhammad B. Kaymakamzade N. Gokbulut |
| author_facet | U.T. Mustapha E. Hincal A. Yusuf S. Qureshi T. Sanlidag S.M. Muhammad B. Kaymakamzade N. Gokbulut |
| author_sort | U.T. Mustapha |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description |
In this paper a mathematical model is proposed, which incorporates quarantine and hospitalization to assess the community impact of social distancing and face mask among the susceptible population. The model parameters are estimated and fitted to the model with the use of laboratory confirmed COVID-19 cases in Turkey from March 11 to October 10, 2020. The partial rank correlation coefficient is employed to perform sensitivity analysis of the model, with basic reproduction number and infection attack rate as response functions. Results from the sensitivity analysis reveal that the most essential parameters for effective control of COVID-19 infection are recovery rate from quarantine individuals (δ1), recovery rate from hospitalized individuals (δ4), and transmission rate (β). Some simulation results are obtained with the aid of mesh plots with respect to the basic reproductive number as a function of two different biological parameters randomly chosen from the model. Finally, numerical simulations on the dynamics of the model highlighted that infections from the compartments of each state variables decreases with time which causes an increase in susceptible individuals. This implies that avoiding contact with infected individuals by means of adequate awareness of social distancing and wearing face mask are vital to prevent or reduce the spread of COVID-19 infection.
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| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T18:39:04Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-873a5d2f48db4d208b3ba6ac88814de9 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2518-7929 2663-5011 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T18:39:04Z |
| publishDate | 2021-06-01 |
| publisher | Academician Ye.A. Buketov Karaganda University |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Қарағанды университетінің хабаршысы. Математика сериясы |
| spelling | doaj.art-873a5d2f48db4d208b3ba6ac88814de92023-12-29T10:19:52ZengAcademician Ye.A. Buketov Karaganda UniversityҚарағанды университетінің хабаршысы. Математика сериясы2518-79292663-50112021-06-01102210.31489/2021m2/92-105Transmission dynamics and control strategies of COVID-19: a modelling studyU.T. MustaphaE. HincalA. YusufS. QureshiT. SanlidagS.M. MuhammadB. KaymakamzadeN. Gokbulut In this paper a mathematical model is proposed, which incorporates quarantine and hospitalization to assess the community impact of social distancing and face mask among the susceptible population. The model parameters are estimated and fitted to the model with the use of laboratory confirmed COVID-19 cases in Turkey from March 11 to October 10, 2020. The partial rank correlation coefficient is employed to perform sensitivity analysis of the model, with basic reproduction number and infection attack rate as response functions. Results from the sensitivity analysis reveal that the most essential parameters for effective control of COVID-19 infection are recovery rate from quarantine individuals (δ1), recovery rate from hospitalized individuals (δ4), and transmission rate (β). Some simulation results are obtained with the aid of mesh plots with respect to the basic reproductive number as a function of two different biological parameters randomly chosen from the model. Finally, numerical simulations on the dynamics of the model highlighted that infections from the compartments of each state variables decreases with time which causes an increase in susceptible individuals. This implies that avoiding contact with infected individuals by means of adequate awareness of social distancing and wearing face mask are vital to prevent or reduce the spread of COVID-19 infection. http://mathematics-vestnik.ksu.kz/index.php/mathematics-vestnik/article/view/420COVID-19mathematical modellingbasic reproduction numbertransmission dynamicssensitivity analysis |
| spellingShingle | U.T. Mustapha E. Hincal A. Yusuf S. Qureshi T. Sanlidag S.M. Muhammad B. Kaymakamzade N. Gokbulut Transmission dynamics and control strategies of COVID-19: a modelling study Қарағанды университетінің хабаршысы. Математика сериясы COVID-19 mathematical modelling basic reproduction number transmission dynamics sensitivity analysis |
| title | Transmission dynamics and control strategies of COVID-19: a modelling study |
| title_full | Transmission dynamics and control strategies of COVID-19: a modelling study |
| title_fullStr | Transmission dynamics and control strategies of COVID-19: a modelling study |
| title_full_unstemmed | Transmission dynamics and control strategies of COVID-19: a modelling study |
| title_short | Transmission dynamics and control strategies of COVID-19: a modelling study |
| title_sort | transmission dynamics and control strategies of covid 19 a modelling study |
| topic | COVID-19 mathematical modelling basic reproduction number transmission dynamics sensitivity analysis |
| url | http://mathematics-vestnik.ksu.kz/index.php/mathematics-vestnik/article/view/420 |
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